Europa League league-phase night, with nine ties, plus what is left of the Carabao Cup third round and four La Liga games. Thirty-two fixtures priced on our board and sixteen or seventeen selections above their price in each market, which is a healthier card than Tuesday's.
Everything below comes from the Acca Sheet and the Player Props board, and the rule holds: we only name a selection the model rates above its price. Prices taken this morning and they move.
Sturm Graz against Rennes carries the highest goal projection of the night in both markets the model prices: 65 percent for both teams to score at 8/15, and 65 percent for over 2.5 goals at the same price. Rennes have seen goals at both ends in four of their last five and have won their last three.
It is the anchor leg on today's Daily Acca treble.
AC Milan against Benfica is 61 percent for goals at both ends at 8/13, 3.3 points clear of its price. Milan have had four of their last five end that way. Benfica arrive having won all five of theirs.
On the player board, Joao Palhinha 1+ shot at 1.53 is 74 percent with four of his last five clearing it, and Gianluca Prestianni 1+ shot on target at 1.80 is 57 percent having cleared it in all five. Season numbers for the Italian side are on the Serie A xG table.
Sunderland are back in Europe, and the model reads it as a tight one: no goals at both ends at 49 percent and under 2.5 goals at 2.20, the latter 5.5 points clear of its price.
The prop board here is the busiest of the night, and it is a contact board rather than a shooting one:
That shape is not an accident. This morning's Super Sub Report found again that contact markets are where substitution pairs add most - 44 percent of pairs cleared 2+ fouls against 12.5 percent for a shot on target - so on a European night with heavy rotation, fouls and tackles are the sturdier lines.
Olympique Lyonnais at 27/20 to win at Anderlecht is 45 percent against an implied 40, the biggest gap in the Europa League tonight and a leg on our Value Acca.
The supporting number the price may be missing: Anderlecht have not had a single game with goals at both ends in their last five. They are not scoring enough to win a shootout, and Lyon have lost once in five. On the player board, Tyler Morton 1+ shot at 1.53 is 67 percent.
Coventry City v Aston Villa, 20:00. Aston Villa at 21/20 is 48 percent against an implied 45. Coventry City have lost four of their last five and carry the worst goal difference in the Premier League at minus ten.
Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers, 19:45. No goals at both ends at 50 percent, and under 2.5 goals at 2.15 is 6 points clear of its price - the biggest gap in that market tonight.
Levante v Athletic Club, 20:30. The single biggest disagreement on the whole card: Levante at 12/5 is 34 percent against an implied 28. Our second Value Acca leg.
FC Barcelona v Racing Santander, 20:30. Goals at both ends at 9/5 is 59 percent against an implied 52, a gap of 6.9 points - the largest in the goals market today. La Liga power rankings for the wider picture.
Three, all on the Daily Acca with a settled public ledger:
Tuesday returned two winners from three and +8.44pts, the best day of the season, and the season stands at 13 winners from 51 at +10.68pts. The round-by-round column is at Premier League betting predictions, which closed Gameweek 4 at 7-2.
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