We give the San Antonio Spurs a 82% chance, against 18% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →
82%
SAS to win
1.20
The Statz model makes the San Antonio Spurs 82% favourites at the Utah Jazz on Wednesday 28 October, with a projected margin of 11.7 points. The market has the Spurs at -11.5 and the total at 234.5, so the model sees no real spread edge. The injury that matters is Jaren Jackson Jr., out with a torn MCL.
The San Antonio Spurs visit the Utah Jazz on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Spurs the favourite with an 82% win probability. The market agrees on the side and has San Antonio at -11.5. The model's number is close to that, so the question is less who wins than how much value is left in the price.
How the teams arrive
Utah are 1-3 this season and have lost three of four, with the sequence L L W L. The Jazz lost 105-110 to Memphis at home and 123-132 to the Lakers at home. They beat New Orleans 120-119, a one-point escape, then lost 103-123 at Memphis in their opener. They average 112.8 points for and concede 121.0. That gap is the story of their start, and the defence is where it leaks.
San Antonio are 2-2, with the sequence W W L L reading from the most recent game backwards. The Spurs beat Sacramento 130-103 at home on Tuesday and won 122-106 at Dallas before that. Their two defeats came against Houston, 110-114 at home, and Oklahoma City, 104-116 at home. They average 116.5 points for and allow 109.8. Wednesday is the second night of a back-to-back for them, and they are on the road.
Team news and lineups
Utah carry the heavier list. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL in his right knee, sustained early in Monday's loss to Memphis. The reported timeline is 6-to-8 weeks, and his return date is shown as 14 December. Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a plantar plate tear in his right foot, with a return date of 4 November. Two big men are gone, so the Jazz are thin at centre, and the minutes will be shared out among whoever is left in the frontcourt. That is a problem against a front line as long as San Antonio's.
San Antonio's list is shorter. Jayden Quaintance is out as he works back from a torn ACL and meniscus, with a return date of 3 December. Tobias Harris is listed out with a left calf strain and has missed the first four games. His return date is shown as 28 October, so this is the first night he could make his debut. Check his status before tip. Without him, Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson keep the extra minutes.
Keyonte George projects for 20.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.0 threes. He is Utah's main creator, and with the big men out, the offence leans on his pick-and-roll work and his shooting.
Lauri Markkanen projects for 18.1 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.9 assists. His rebound number is the one to note. Utah need him on the glass more than usual with the interior depleted.
Airious Bailey projects for 13.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He adds size on the wing, and his role grows with the frontcourt injuries.
Victor Wembanyama projects for 25.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.1 threes. That is the best line on the floor by some distance. Utah have no obvious answer for him inside, which is why the model is so confident.
De'Aaron Fox projects for 17.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He sets the pace for San Antonio, and his speed against a weakened Utah defence should create easy looks.
Stephon Castle projects for 17.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.3 assists. His all-round line shows how much of the Spurs' offence runs through him. The 7.3 assists are the highest projection on either roster.
Same game parlays
Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.
Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.
Dylan Harper
Under 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 76.5%
1.61
Devin Vassell
Under 4.5 Rebounds · 5/5 last 5 · 63.2%
1.68
2.66
Market 33.1%Statz 48.3%+15.2%
Edge4 legs
The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.
Dylan Harper
Under 25.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 3/5 last 5 · 86.3%
1.87
Devin Vassell
Under 3.5 Assists · 3/5 last 5 · 72.8%
PP2.20
Darryn Peterson
Under 16.5 Pts + Ast · 3/4 last 5 · 76.2%
1.80
Lauri Markkanen
Under 2.5 Threes · 3/5 last 5 · 75.1%
1.72
PP11.63
Market 6.5%Statz 36%+29.5%
Scoring3 legs
Points, threes and the combination markets, over.
De'Aaron Fox
Over 19.5 Pts + Reb · 4/5 last 5 · 52.8%
1.90
Airious Bailey
Over 14.5 Pts + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 52.6%
PP1.91
Devin Vassell
Over 16.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 49.1%
PP2.00
PP6.88
Market 12.3%Statz 13.6%+1.3%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.
Statz prediction
The model takes the San Antonio Spurs. It gives them an 82% win probability and a projected margin of 11.7 points, which makes the model line -11.7 for the Spurs and +11.7 for the Jazz. The market spread is -11.5, so the gap is 0.2 points and the model leans to neither side. There is no spread edge here. The case for San Antonio rests on the matchup: Utah are missing two big men and have conceded 121.0 points a game.
On the total, the model projects 234.9 against a market line of 234.5. The gap is 0.4 points and again the model leans to neither the over nor the under. It has San Antonio at 123.3 points and Utah at 111.6. The shape is a comfortable Spurs win, not a clear call on the total.
Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs to win, 82% model win probability. The best moneyline price on the Spurs is 1.17 at Boylesports, so the return is small. For the spread, the best Spurs price at -11.5 is 1.91 at Fanatics. Compare numbers on the NBA odds page. Lines move before tip, and Tobias Harris's status could shift them.
SAS @ UTA questions
Who does the model favour in Spurs vs Jazz?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs, with an 82% win probability against 18% for the Utah Jazz. It projects the Spurs to win by 11.7 points, which makes the model line -11.7 for San Antonio.
What is the market spread for Spurs at Jazz?
The market has the San Antonio Spurs at -11.5 and the Utah Jazz at +11.5. The best Spurs price at that line is 1.91 at Fanatics, and the best Jazz price is 1.96 at FanDuel. A few books show 12.5 instead.
What is the total for Spurs vs Jazz?
The market total is 234.5. The Statz model projects 234.9, a gap of 0.4 points, so it leans to neither the over nor the under. It has the Spurs scoring 123.3 points and the Jazz 111.6.
Which injuries matter for the Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and a return date of 14 December. Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a foot injury and a return date of 4 November. Utah are very short of big men.
Is Tobias Harris playing for the Spurs?
Tobias Harris is listed out with a left calf strain. He has missed the first four games, and his return date is shown as 28 October, so Wednesday is his first chance to debut. Check his status before tip.
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Quick answers3 questions
Who is favoured, San Antonio Spurs or Utah Jazz?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 82% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 18%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the San Antonio Spurs as the favourite at -11.5 on the spread. The moneyline is +470 for the Utah Jazz and -650 for the San Antonio Spurs.
What is the spread and total for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz?
Draftkings lists the Utah Jazz at +11.5 with the total at 234.5 for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.
Which player props stand out for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz?
The board's headline lines are De'Aaron Fox 13.5+ assists at 34.00, Victor Wembanyama 19.5+ rebounds at 22.00 and Devin Vassell 7.5+ threes at 29.00. For the Utah Jazz the model projects Keyonte George for 20.4 points and Lauri Markkanen for 18.1 points. For the San Antonio Spurs it projects Victor Wembanyama for 25.9 points and De'Aaron Fox for 17.4 points.
1.20
Spurs
Jazz
