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SAC3.28NOP1.46via Kalshi

Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 29

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NOP

Statz pick

New Orleans Pelicans to win

We give the New Orleans Pelicans a 70% chance, against 30% for the Sacramento Kings. See the full projection →

70%
NOP to win
Kalshi1.46

The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans at 70% to beat the Sacramento Kings, with a model line of -7.0 and a projected total of 237.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Keegan Murray, one of four Kings players out.

The Sacramento Kings visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday 29 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Pelicans the favourite at 70% and sets the line at -7.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

The Pelicans have lost all three games counted, averaging 124.7 points for and 128.0 against. Each loss was close. They fell 135-141 at Denver, 119-120 at Utah and 120-123 to Indiana at home. The offence is scoring. The defence is not holding up, and the New Orleans results have come down to a handful of possessions.

The Kings are 0-4 and arrive in worse shape. They average 107.8 points for and allow 125.5. Their latest game was a 103-130 loss at San Antonio, and they also lost 96-121 at the Clippers. At home they lost 112-123 to Memphis and 120-128 to Portland. Those margins point to a team struggling at both ends.

Team news and lineups

New Orleans lists one player out. Yves Missi has a left knee bone bruise and no official timetable, with a return date of 2 November in the data. Derik Queen is the player flagged to move into a bigger role while Missi is out, so frontcourt minutes shift his way.

Sacramento has four players out. Keegan Murray has left ankle capsulitis and is set to be re-evaluated in 10 to 14 days. Dylan Cardwell is out with a calf strain and Maxime Raynaud with a right patellar subluxation, which is expected to run into mid-November. Ben Simmons is reported out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon.

The frontcourt is the thin spot. With Cardwell and Raynaud out, Precious Achiuwa, Jonathan Mogbo and De'Andre Hunter are candidates for more minutes. Achiuwa has been starting in Murray's absence. Depth on the wing and in the big rotation is stretched.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 20.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He is the top scorer in the Pelicans projection, and his drives test a Kings frontcourt without two of its bigs.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 3.9 threes. His three-point volume is the biggest spacing threat on the floor for New Orleans.

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey is projected for 17.9 points and 2.8 threes. He gives the Pelicans a third scorer on the wing.

Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine is projected for 24.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 3.1 threes. He leads the Kings by a clear margin, and Sacramento's offence runs through him with Murray out.

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis is projected for 20.0 points, 14.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists. His rebounding matters most with the Kings short of big men.

Precious Achiuwa

Precious Achiuwa is projected for 13.9 points and 7.8 rebounds. He is in line for heavy minutes up front, and his work on the glass helps Sacramento stay in the game.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Pelicans. It gives them a 70% win probability and a -7.0 line, with a projected score of 122.1 to 115.1 and a total of 237.2. The Kings are +7.0 on the model line.

There is no market comparison to make because no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet. The market is the missing side. Without a posted total, there is no total lean to give. The model's 237.2 is a high number, in line with how both teams have been scoring and conceding this season.

The Pelicans are winless too, but they are at home, have one player out against four, and have lost their three games by a combined 13 points or fewer per game. The Kings have been beaten by wide margins.

Statz pick: New Orleans Pelicans, model line -7.0, 70% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the NBA odds page once a number is posted.

SAC @ NOP questions

Who does the model favour, Kings or Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans at 70%, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 30%. The model line is Pelicans -7.0 and Kings +7.0, with a projected score of 122.1 to 115.1.
What is the projected total for Kings at Pelicans?
The model projects a total of 237.2 points, with 122.1 for the Pelicans and 115.1 for the Kings. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
What is the market line for this game?
No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. The model line is Pelicans -7.0. Check the Statz NBA odds page for updates once a market opens.
Who is injured for the Kings?
Four Kings players are out: Keegan Murray with left ankle capsulitis, Dylan Cardwell with a calf strain, Maxime Raynaud with a right patellar subluxation, and Ben Simmons, who is out for the season with a torn right Achilles tendon.
Who is injured for the Pelicans?
Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise and has no official timetable. The data lists a return date of 2 November. Derik Queen is the player flagged to take on a bigger role while he is out.
How are the Kings and Pelicans playing this season?
Both teams are winless. The Pelicans are 0-3, averaging 124.7 points for and 128.0 against. The Kings are 0-4, averaging 107.8 points for and 125.5 against, including a 103-130 loss at San Antonio.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Sacramento Kings or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans with a 70% win probability, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 30%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 0-5 and the Sacramento Kings are 0-5. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans?

For the New Orleans Pelicans the model projects Zion Williamson for 20.6 points and Trey Murphy III for 19.9 points. For the Sacramento Kings it projects Zach LaVine for 24.0 points and Domantas Sabonis for 20.0 points.