Portland Trail BlazersTrail Blazers
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POR2.25MIN1.80via Polymarket

Portland Trail Blazers vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 16

Updated Nov 15, with the latest lineups and odds

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MIN

Statz pick

Minnesota Timberwolves to win

We give the Minnesota Timberwolves a 57% chance, against 43% for the Portland Trail Blazers. See the full projection →

57%
MIN to win
Polymarket1.80

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves at 57%, with the Portland Trail Blazers at 43%. The model line is Minnesota -2.4 and the projected total is 227.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Anthony Edwards, who is out after knee surgery.

The Portland Trail Blazers visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday 16 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Minnesota the favourite at 57%, with Portland at 43%. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against the model. Check NBA odds for updates once lines appear.

How the teams arrive

Minnesota is 6-4 over its last 10, all of them this season, and it scores 117.5 points while allowing 109.5. The run has swung both ways. The Timberwolves beat Dallas 133-94 and Utah 115-100 at home, and they won at Houston and New Orleans. They also lost 106-117 to Chicago in their last outing, at home, and went down 111-121 at San Antonio. Home form has been mixed, with that Chicago defeat and a 114-119 loss to Golden State.

Portland is 7-3 over its last 10, scoring 118.3 and allowing 113.9. The Trail Blazers have won three in a row, beating Oklahoma City 123-103 and 118-108 at home and then Sacramento 120-107 on the road. The weak spots are clear. They lost 103-125 to San Antonio at home and 103-124 to Memphis. Their 113.9 points allowed is a weaker defensive mark than Minnesota's 109.5, and that is part of what the model leans on.

Team news and lineups

Minnesota is thin on the perimeter. Anthony Edwards is out after arthroscopic knee surgery. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances, and his absence removes the main source of shot creation. The reported return date is 21 December. Donte DiVincenzo is out with a torn Achilles and has no firm timetable. Jaylen Clark left Saturday's game with a hamstring problem and is listed out. That leaves minutes for Terrence Shannon Jr. and Bones Hyland, and it puts more scoring and playmaking on the remaining guards.

Portland has its own gaps. Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, though his coach said he may not be out as long as first thought. His listed return is 1 December. Shaedon Sharpe (torn meniscus) and Vit Krejci (fractured ankle) are also out, which strips wing depth from the bench. Chris Youngblood is day-to-day with a foot bone bruise and could return. Sidy Cissoko is in line for extra minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball is projected for 19.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.4 threes. With Edwards out, he is Minnesota's top scoring option and its main creator. His three-point volume is the number that moves the game total.

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu is projected for 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He gives the Timberwolves a second guard who can score and handle the ball, which matters when the backcourt is this short.

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels is projected for 15.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He is Minnesota's most reliable forward, and his defence on Portland's top scorer is part of why the model prefers the home side.

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija leads Portland's projection with 21.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists. With Morant out, he is the Trail Blazers' main creator and scorer. If he has an efficient night, the underdog stays in the game.

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is projected for 17.8 points, 4.2 assists and 2.3 threes. His shooting is Portland's best route to stretching Minnesota's defence and driving up the total.

Donovan Clingan

Donovan Clingan is projected for 10.2 points and 9.3 rebounds. Rebounding and rim protection are where Portland can offset its thin perimeter.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves at home. It gives them 57% to win, a projected margin of 2.4 and a model line of -2.4, with the Portland Trail Blazers at +2.4. It projects Minnesota to score 114.8 and Portland 112.4, for a total of 227.2.

No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so the model-versus-market comparison is missing. Without the market number there is no edge to measure, and no total lean can be called. A close, high-scoring game is what the projection shows, but a lean needs a posted total to compare against.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -2.4 on the model line, 57% win probability, projected total 227.2.

Lines move before tip, so check the posted number against the model line once it appears.

POR @ MIN questions

Who does the model favour in Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves?
The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves at 57%, with the Portland Trail Blazers at 43%. The model line is Minnesota -2.4 and Portland +2.4, a projected margin of 2.4 for the home side.
What is the projected total for Trail Blazers at Timberwolves?
The model projects 227.2 combined points, with Minnesota at 114.8 and Portland at 112.4. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against and no total lean.
Has a betting line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet, so Statz cannot compare the model with the market. Lines usually move before tip, so check the NBA odds page for updates.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves on 16 November?
No. Anthony Edwards is out after arthroscopic knee surgery, with a reported return date of 21 December. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances. Donte DiVincenzo and Jaylen Clark are also listed out.
Is Ja Morant playing for the Trail Blazers?
No. Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, with a listed return of 1 December. Shaedon Sharpe and Vit Krejci are also out. Chris Youngblood is day-to-day with a foot bone bruise.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Portland Trail Blazers or Minnesota Timberwolves?

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 57% win probability, leaving the Portland Trail Blazers at 43%. Over their last five games the Minnesota Timberwolves are 4-1 and the Portland Trail Blazers are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves?

No spread or total is posted yet for Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves?

For Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, the model projects LaMelo Ball for 19.6 points and Ayo Dosunmu for 17.4 points for the Minnesota Timberwolves. For the Portland Trail Blazers it projects Deni Avdija for 21.4 points and Damian Lillard for 17.8 points.