Philadelphia 76ers vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 16

Brooklyn arrive at 3-7 over their last 10, with the sequence L W L L W L W L L L. They score 109.8 and concede 116.2 on average across that run. The road scores tell the story. They lost 129-110 at Memphis and 130-93 at Dallas, and they were beaten 136-109 at home by Indiana. There is a bright spot, a 145-111 win at New Orleans, and they lost 125-124 at Boston and 124-121 at Atlanta. The Nets can score in bursts. They have not defended with any consistency.

Philadelphia are 7-3 over their last 10, with the sequence W L W L W W W W W L. They average 109.8 for and 110.0 against, a level profile built on defence that holds up. The best results were a 123-112 win over Toronto at home and a 127-121 win at Chicago. The bad nights were sharp: a 123-101 home loss to Boston and a 119-95 defeat at Cleveland. Philadelphia are the steadier side, and Brooklyn are the one that swings.

Philadelphia's list is long, and it centres on Joel Embiid. He is listed out with right foot plantar fascia injury management, and he sat out Sunday's game against the Pacers. His listed return date is 16 November, the day of this game. That makes his status the first thing to check before tip. If he sits again, the minutes at centre are thin.

Adem Bona (cervical spine sprain) and Dominick Barlow (low back stress reaction) are both listed out, each with a return date of 18 November. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles tendon. The reporting points to Dean Wade, Jabari Walker and Tacko Fall absorbing extra time, with LeBron James also seeing more minutes at the five. That is a smaller frontcourt, and rebounding is the obvious pressure point.

Brooklyn are without Michael Porter Jr., who is listed out for personal reasons, also with a return date of 16 November. He averages 21.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals this season, so this is a big hole in the scoring. The reporting says Keon Ellis, Terance Mann and Danny Wolf could all see more minutes, while Julius Randle is in line for a higher usage rate. Brooklyn's offence runs through Randle in this spot, and that makes it easier to read for a defence that knows where the ball is going.

The model takes the Philadelphia 76ers. It gives them a 72% win probability and a projected margin that makes them -7.8 on the model line. The Nets sit at +7.8. It projects 114.8 points for Philadelphia and 107.0 for Brooklyn, a total of 221.8.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing half. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say where the value sits or lean over or under on the total. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with 221.8 and -7.8.

The case for Philadelphia is simple. They are 7-3 over their last 10 and allow 110.0 a game. Brooklyn are 3-7 and allow 116.2, and they are missing Porter. The risk is on the other side, with Embiid listed out and the 76ers thin up front.

Statz pick: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 72% model win probability, model line -7.8, model total 221.8.

Lines move before tip, and injury news will move them, so recheck before you bet.