Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
Sun, Nov 159:00 PMETSacramento
Sacramento KingsKings
OKC1.20SAC5.41via Kalshi

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 15

Updated Nov 14, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 82% chance, against 18% for the Sacramento Kings. See the full projection →

82%
OKC to win
Kalshi1.20

The model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 82% to beat the Sacramento Kings, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and a total of 224.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most: Chet Holmgren is out for the Thunder, who are thin up front.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Sacramento Kings on Sunday 15 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder the favourite at 82%, with a model line of -12.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

The Kings are 1-9 over their last 10, and the run is ugly: L L L L L W L L L L. They average 108.2 points for and concede 120.2. Their one win came 115-100 at Dallas. Since then they have lost five straight at home, including 107-120 to Portland on Friday and 100-107 to Orlando. Heavy defeats at Memphis (105-136) and San Antonio (103-130) show how far the defence has slipped.

The Thunder are 5-5 over their last 10 and arrive on a three-game losing run. They lost 112-113 at the Clippers on Friday, then 108-118 and 103-123 at Portland. Before that came four straight wins, including 114-75 over Washington and 128-97 at Memphis. They average 112.5 points for and allow 110.7. Sunday is a road game.

Team news and lineups

The Thunder list five players as out. Jalen Williams had surgery on a fractured left fibula and ankle ligaments. Cason Wallace is out after shoulder surgery. Chet Holmgren will miss at least 8-10 weeks with a patellar tendon tear. Jaylin Williams is out with a back issue and has no timetable. Ajay Mitchell is out with an ankle sprain. Thomas Sorber is also out, still recovering from knee surgery.

The frontcourt is the pressure point. With Holmgren and Jaylin Williams out, the Thunder lean on Isaiah Hartenstein and Aday Mara for minutes at centre. The backcourt shifts too: Jared McCain, Bennett Stirtz and Nique Clifford pick up the guard minutes Mitchell and Wallace leave behind.

The Kings are without Ben Simmons, out for the season with a torn Achilles. Maxime Raynaud is out with a knee injury and is week-to-week. Precious Achiuwa is out with ankle soreness and is day-to-day. Their absences leave the Kings short of big-man depth. Dylan Cardwell is in line for more minutes, and Keegan Murray's role grows with Achiuwa out.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 29.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists. With so many teammates out, the Thunder offence runs through him. He is the clearest source of their 118.4 projected points.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 14.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.6 threes. He takes on more guard minutes with Mitchell and Wallace out, and his shooting gives the Thunder a second scoring option.

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein is projected for 9.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He anchors a thin frontcourt, and his rebounding and passing hold the unit together.

Darius Acuff Jr.

Darius Acuff Jr. is projected for 21.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 3.5 threes. He leads the Kings in scoring and creation, and the home side needs both.

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis is projected for 14.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 5.4 assists. With Raynaud and Achiuwa out, he carries the load on the glass.

De'Andre Hunter

De'Andre Hunter is projected for 14.0 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.4 threes. He is the Kings' second scoring option in the model, ahead of Zach LaVine at 12.9 points.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Thunder. It gives them an 82% win probability and a projected margin of 12.3 points, with the Kings at +12.3. The team points projection is 118.4 for Oklahoma City and 106.2 for Sacramento, a projected total of 224.6.

No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet, so there is no comparison between model and market to make. The market side is missing. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them to the model's 12.3 margin and 224.6 total before deciding on a side or a total lean.

The case for the Thunder is simple. The Kings have lost nine of their last 10 and concede 120.2 points a game. The case against is that Oklahoma City has lost three straight and is missing key players, so the gap may shrink once the market prices it in.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder, 82% win probability, model line -12.3.

Lines move before tip, so treat any number as provisional until then.

OKC @ SAC questions

Who does the model favour in Thunder at Kings?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 82%, with the Sacramento Kings at 18%. The model line is Thunder -12.3 and Kings +12.3, based on a projected margin of 12.3 points.
What is the projected total for Thunder vs Kings?
The model projects a total of 224.6 points. It has the Thunder scoring 118.4 and the Kings scoring 106.2. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. Statz will compare the model with the market once a line appears on the NBA odds page.
Which injuries matter most for the Thunder?
Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Ajay Mitchell and Thomas Sorber are all out. Holmgren and Jaylin Williams leave the frontcourt thin, so Isaiah Hartenstein and Aday Mara take on more of the minutes.
How have the Kings played recently?
The Kings are 1-9 over their last 10, averaging 108.2 points for and conceding 120.2. Their one win was 115-100 at Dallas. They lost 107-120 to Portland on Friday and have dropped five straight at home.
Who is projected to score most in this game?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to lead all players with 29.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists. For the Kings, Darius Acuff Jr. is projected for 21.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and 7.0 assists.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Oklahoma City Thunder or Sacramento Kings?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 82% win probability, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 18%. Over their last five games the Sacramento Kings are 0-5 and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings?

No spread or total is posted yet for Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings?

For Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, the model projects Darius Acuff Jr. for 21.9 points and Domantas Sabonis for 14.5 points for the Sacramento Kings. For the Oklahoma City Thunder it projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 29.5 points and Jared McCain for 14.9 points.