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Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 16

Updated Nov 15, with the latest lineups and odds

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Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 64% chance, against 36% for the Miami Heat. See the full projection →

64%
HOU to win
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The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 64% to beat the Miami Heat, with a model line of Rockets -4.8 and a projected total of 230.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Fred VanVleet, listed out for Houston after sitting Sunday's game at Washington.

The Houston Rockets visit the Miami Heat on Monday 16 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET in Miami. The Statz model favours Houston at 64%, with Miami at 36%. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to hold the model against. This is the model's view on its own, and it will be worth rechecking once the NBA odds go up.

How the teams arrive

Miami are 7-3 over their last 10, with a sequence of W W W W L W L W W L, newest result first. They average 121.6 points for and 118.4 against, so their games have run open. The big scores are on both sides. They beat Detroit 137-117 and Cleveland 133-121 at home in the last two games, and they put up 145-125 against Indiana. They also lost 117-138 at the Lakers and 100-120 at Golden State. This is a team that can score in bulk and still give it back on the road. Tonight they are at home.

Houston are also 7-3 over their last 10, with a sequence of W W W L L W W L W W. The difference is defence. They average 114.7 points for and 106.2 against. They beat Utah 125-118 and Golden State 115-108 at home, and Denver 110-100. Earlier wins included 132-100 at Milwaukee, 119-98 against Oklahoma City and 109-93 against Boston. The losses were close or narrow in margin on the road, 99-102 at Phoenix and 111-116 at Dallas, plus 107-117 against Minnesota at home. Tonight they are the away side.

Team news and lineups

Houston carry the longer list. Fred VanVleet is listed out with right knee injury management after sitting Sunday's game at Washington. The report points to Monday at Miami as his next chance to play, so his status is the one to check close to tip. Clint Capela is also listed out with a right ankle sprain, and the same report names Monday at Miami as his next chance to return. Marcus Smart is out on a three-game suspension and is eligible to return Wednesday against Indiana. Two-way players Quadir Copeland and Julian Phillips are with the G League.

The effect is on the guard minutes. With VanVleet and Smart out, Reed Sheppard, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Bruce Thornton are in line for more time, and Amen Thompson should take more on-ball duties. That changes how Houston create shots and puts more load on its ball handlers on the second night of a back-to-back.

Miami list Pelle Larsson as out with an illness. He missed Saturday's game against the Pistons and the win over Cleveland before it, and his return date in the data is 16 November, so watch for a status update. In his absence, Andrew Wiggins and rookie Ryan Conwell each played 30-plus minutes off the bench, which suggests the wing rotation is leaning on Wiggins for heavier minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for 25.4 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He is the centre of Miami's offence and the best argument for the home side keeping this close. Houston have to decide how to defend him without their full guard group.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo is projected for 18.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists, with 1.2 threes. His work on the glass and as a passer decides how Miami's possessions flow when Houston load up on Giannis.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell is projected for 12.9 points, 6.8 assists and 1.9 threes. He runs the Heat attack, and his playmaking matters most against a Houston side short on guards.

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun is projected for 21.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.7 assists. With the guard rotation thinned, Houston can run more of the offence through him, and the passing line is the one to note.

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 21.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.2 threes. He gives Houston a scorer who can create his own shot when the offence stalls, which matters more tonight.

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson is projected for 15.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. With more on-ball duties expected, his playmaking is the piece that shows how well Houston adapt to the missing guards.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Houston Rockets. It gives them a 64% win probability and projects them to win by 4.8 points, which makes the model line Rockets -4.8 and Heat +4.8. The projected score is Houston 117.5 to Miami 112.7, for a projected total of 230.2.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet. That also means no total lean can be given: the model total of 230.2 has no market number to compare against.

Houston's defensive form and the model's margin support the pick, but the injury list is long, especially at guard. Miami at home and with a high-scoring recent run keep it from being one-sided, and the 36% for the Heat is a real chance.

Statz pick: Houston Rockets to win, 64% model win probability, model line -4.8.

Lines move before tip, and injury news on VanVleet, Capela and Larsson could shift the picture, so check the NBA odds once a line is posted.

HOU @ MIA questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Rockets vs Heat?
The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 64%, with the Miami Heat at 36%. It projects Houston to win by 4.8 points, which makes the model line Rockets -4.8 and Heat +4.8.
What is the projected total for Rockets vs Heat?
The model projects a total of 230.2 points, with Houston at 117.5 and Miami at 112.7. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against and no over or under lean.
What time is Houston Rockets at Miami Heat?
The game is on Monday 16 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. It is played in Miami, where the Heat are the home side and the Houston Rockets are the visitors.
Which injuries matter most for Houston?
Fred VanVleet is listed out with right knee injury management, and Clint Capela is out with a right ankle sprain. Marcus Smart is suspended until Wednesday. Reed Sheppard, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Bruce Thornton are in line for more minutes.
Is Pelle Larsson playing for Miami?
Pelle Larsson is listed as out with an illness. He missed Saturday's game against the Pistons and the win over Cleveland before it. His return date in the data is 16 November, so check his status near tip.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Houston Rockets or Miami Heat?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 64% win probability, leaving the Miami Heat at 36%. Over their last five games the Miami Heat are 4-1 and the Houston Rockets are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Houston Rockets at Miami Heat?

No spread or total is posted yet for Houston Rockets at Miami Heat; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Houston Rockets at Miami Heat?

For Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, the model projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 25.4 points and Bam Adebayo for 18.0 points for the Miami Heat. For the Houston Rockets it projects Alperen Sengun for 21.5 points and Kevin Durant for 21.4 points.