Golden State WarriorsWarriors
Mon, Nov 168:00 PMETNew Orleans
New Orleans PelicansPelicans
GSW1.68NOP2.47via Polymarket

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 16

Updated Nov 15, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

GSW

Statz pick

Golden State Warriors to win

We give the Golden State Warriors a 67% chance, against 33% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

67%
GSW to win
Polymarket1.68

The Statz model favours the Golden State Warriors at 67% to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday 16 November, with a model line of -6.1 and a projected total of 230.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Stephen Curry, who is out for the Warriors.

The Golden State Warriors visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday 16 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Warriors the favourite at 67%, with a model line of -6.1. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a line for this game, so there is no spread or total to compare against.

How the teams arrive

The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10, with a run of eight straight wins now followed by two losses. They average 118.2 points for and allow 109.2 over that stretch. The standout result is the 138-87 win over the Pelicans on 9 November. The latest two games were rougher: an 85-123 loss at San Antonio and a 108-115 defeat at Houston. Both came on the road, and the road is where they play again here.

The Pelicans are 4-6 over their last 10, and the shape of that run is the problem. They won four in a row early, then lost six straight. They score 115.7 and concede 126.1. Recent home games have been ugly: 111-142 against Memphis, 111-145 against Brooklyn and 108-116 against Denver. The defence has been the leak. The one result that shows resilience is the 135-134 win at Memphis earlier this month. They have lost to the Warriors by 51 already this season, and they return home to try to fix it.

Team news and lineups

The Pelicans are short. Trey Murphy III (knees), Trendon Watford (ankle), Bryce McGowens (elbow) and Bennedict Mathurin (plantar fasciitis) are all listed out, though Monday is each man's next chance to return. Dejounte Murray is out with an ankle problem after requesting a trade, and he is considered doubtful for future games while the club looks for a new home for him. Murphy's absence means Saddiq Bey keeps an elevated role. Mathurin's absence strips out a second-unit scorer, so the bench is thin.

The Warriors are also thin, but in different places. Stephen Curry has an oblique abdominal tear and is due to be re-evaluated in two weeks, with a return date listed of 12 December. Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn ACL, Moses Moody from a ruptured patellar tendon, and Kristaps Porzingis has stepped away from basketball. Brandon Williams is out with a hamstring strain. Without Curry, ball-handling and shot creation are shared around, and that is why the Warriors have struggled in their last two road games.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected at 19.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists. With so many teammates out, he is the Pelicans' most reliable source of offence, and the model leans on him heavily.

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears is projected at 16.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists. His playmaking matters most with the guard group depleted, and the model has him handling a lot of the creation.

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey is projected at 15.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.3 assists, with 2.0 threes. He is the main beneficiary of Murphy's absence and gives New Orleans its best spacing.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Yaxel Lendeborg is projected at 20.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists, with 2.1 threes. He is the Warriors' top projected scorer and a Rookie of the Year candidate, and he carries more of the load while Curry is out.

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski is projected at 18.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists, with 2.5 threes. He has the highest three-point projection in the game and is a candidate for extra usage without Curry.

De'Anthony Melton

De'Anthony Melton is projected at 11.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.6 assists, with 1.7 threes. With Williams out too, Melton is the backcourt piece the Warriors are expected to lean on more.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Golden State Warriors. Its win probability is 67%, and the projected margin goes with it: a model line of -6.1 for the Warriors and +6.1 for the Pelicans. The projected score is 118.1 to 112.0, a model total of 230.0.

There is no market to measure that against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet, so we cannot say whether the model's line or its total differs from the market's, and we cannot give a total lean. Check the NBA odds page once lines are up. The question will be whether the market asks for more or less than 6.1 points from the Warriors.

The case for the Warriors is simple. They arrive 8-2 over their last 10, they won the earlier meeting 138-87, and the Pelicans have lost six of their last 10 with five players out. The case against is that Curry is missing and the Warriors just lost twice on the road.

Statz pick: Golden State Warriors to win, model line -6.1, 67% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so recheck the injury report and the price before you act.

GSW @ NOP questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Warriors at Pelicans?
The model favours the Golden State Warriors with a 67% win probability, against 33% for the New Orleans Pelicans. Its line is Warriors -6.1, and the projected score is 118.1 to 112.0 in the Warriors' favour.
What is the model total for Warriors vs Pelicans?
The model projects a total of 230.0 points, built from 118.1 for the Golden State Warriors and 112.0 for the New Orleans Pelicans. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Is Stephen Curry playing for the Warriors on 16 November?
No. Stephen Curry is listed out with an oblique abdominal tear and is due to be re-evaluated in two weeks. His listed return date is 12 December, so the Warriors face the Pelicans without him.
Which Pelicans players are out?
Trey Murphy III, Trendon Watford, Bryce McGowens, Dejounte Murray and Bennedict Mathurin are all listed out. Murray requested a trade and is considered doubtful for future games, while Monday is the next chance for the other four to return.
How have the Warriors and Pelicans played recently?
The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10, scoring 118.2 and allowing 109.2. The Pelicans are 4-6, scoring 115.7 and allowing 126.1. The Warriors won their meeting on 9 November 138-87.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Golden State Warriors or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Golden State Warriors with a 67% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 33%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 0-5 and the Golden State Warriors are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans?

For Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans, the model projects Zion Williamson for 19.5 points and Jeremiah Fears for 16.3 points for the New Orleans Pelicans. For the Golden State Warriors it projects Yaxel Lendeborg for 20.5 points and Brandin Podziemski for 18.1 points.