Denver NuggetsNuggets
Fri, Oct 3010:00 PMETPhoenix
Phoenix SunsSuns
DEN1.74PHX2.35via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 30

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DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 55% chance, against 45% for the Phoenix Suns. See the full projection →

55%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.74

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 55% to beat the Phoenix Suns, with a projected line of -1.7 against a market spread of -2.5. That 0.8-point gap points to Phoenix as the side to back. Denver's depth is thin, with Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther out, while Mark Williams is out for Phoenix.

The Denver Nuggets visit the Phoenix Suns on Friday 30 October, with tip set for 10:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 55% to win, and the market agrees on the side, with Denver at -2.5 and a total of 234.5. The model's own line is a little tighter, and that is where the interest sits.

How the teams arrive

Phoenix sit at 1-2 over their three games, with a sequence of L W L. The results swing hard. They lost 83-124 at Portland, beat Golden State 131-122 at home, then lost 114-125 at Oklahoma City. Across the three they average 109.3 points for and concede 123.7. That defensive number is the concern. The Suns are home here, and the win over Golden State is the one result that shows the offence at full speed.

Denver are 2-2 over four games, with a sequence of W L W L. They opened with an 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City, then beat New Orleans 141-135 at home. A 114-134 home loss to Golden State followed, and they bounced back with a 104-91 win at New Orleans on Wednesday. They average 110.8 points for and concede 114.0, a far steadier defensive profile than Phoenix have shown. Denver arrive on the road after a game two nights ago.

Team news and lineups

Phoenix are without Mark Williams, who is out after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. His listed return date is 3 February 2027. His absence leaves the centre minutes to be shared, with Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach the names mentioned in the injury report. Rebounding and rim protection are where Phoenix feel it most against a big like Nikola Jokic.

Denver's list is longer. Spencer Jones (hamstring) is out, with a listed return date of 2 November. Julian Strawther (knee) is out, with a listed return date of 29 November. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are candidates for extra minutes in the interim, which matters for the second unit.

Cameron Johnson (ankle) and Alpha Diallo (personal reasons) are both listed out, though each carries a return date of 30 October. Both could be back in Phoenix. Check the latest report before tip, because their status changes how deep Denver's rotation runs.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Devin Booker

Devin Booker is projected for 24.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.9 threes. With Williams out, Phoenix lean on his shot creation even more. If Denver's defence tilts toward him, the scoring has to come from elsewhere.

Jalen Green

Jalen Green is projected for 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 2.7 threes. He carries the second-highest scoring projection on the Phoenix side. His three-point volume gives Phoenix a way to keep pace if the game turns into a shootout.

Kennedy Chandler is projected for 16.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. The assist figure stands out. It suggests he carries real playmaking duty in this model's view of the Phoenix rotation.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 23.9 points, 14.6 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 1.5 threes. The rebound number is the one to note. Phoenix are short at centre, and Jokic should control the glass and run the Denver offence from the high post.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 22.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 3.7 threes. His three-point projection is the highest of any player in this game. He is the Denver perimeter threat that stretches the Phoenix defence.

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is projected for 17.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 0.6 threes. He is a mid-range scorer and gives Denver a third creator. With injuries thinning the Nuggets, his shot volume matters.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets to win, at 55%. It projects them 117.1 points to 115.4 for the Phoenix Suns. That is a margin of 1.7, so the model line is Denver -1.7 (Phoenix +1.7). The market asks for more at Denver -2.5, and the gap is 0.8 points. The price on Phoenix +2.5 is 1.91 at DraftKings.

The total tells a similar story. The model projects 232.6 against a market line of 234.5, a gap of 1.9 points that leans to the under. The best price on the under is 1.87 at DraftKings. Phoenix have conceded freely in their early games, but Denver's shorter rotation and the absence of Williams for Phoenix both point to a game that may not reach the posted number.

Denver win this game more often than not in the model, but the spread already prices that in. The edge, such as it is, sits with the home side getting the points.

Statz pick: Phoenix Suns +2.5 at 1.91 (DraftKings), with a lean to the under 234.5 at 1.87.

Lines move before tip, and the injury status of Cameron Johnson and Alpha Diallo could shift them, so check the latest NBA odds before you act.

DEN @ PHX questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Nuggets vs Suns?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 55% to win. It projects them 117.1 points to 115.4 for the Phoenix Suns, which makes Denver a 1.7-point favourite on the model line.
What is the market spread for Nuggets at Suns?
The market has the Denver Nuggets at -2.5 and the Phoenix Suns at +2.5. DraftKings has the best price on either side at 1.91. The model line is Denver -1.7, so Phoenix at +2.5 offers a 0.8-point gap.
What is the total for Denver vs Phoenix, and which way does the model lean?
The market total is 234.5, with the best over price at 1.95 and the best under price at 1.87, both at DraftKings. The model projects 232.6 points, which is 1.9 below the market, so it leans to the under.
Which injuries matter most in this game?
Mark Williams is out for the Phoenix Suns after shoulder surgery. For the Denver Nuggets, Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are out, while Cameron Johnson and Alpha Diallo are listed out with a return date of 30 October.
Who are the top projected scorers in Nuggets vs Suns?
Devin Booker leads Phoenix at a projected 24.7 points. Nikola Jokic leads Denver at 23.9 points, along with 14.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists. Jamal Murray is projected for 22.9 points and 3.7 threes.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or Phoenix Suns?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 55% win probability, leaving the Phoenix Suns at 45%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the Denver Nuggets as the favourite at -2.5 on the spread. The moneyline is +110 for the Phoenix Suns and -130 for the Denver Nuggets.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns?

Draftkings lists the Phoenix Suns at +2.5 with the total at 234.5 for Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns?

For Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, the model projects Devin Booker for 24.7 points and Jalen Green for 18.8 points for the Phoenix Suns. For the Denver Nuggets it projects Nikola Jokic for 23.9 points and Jamal Murray for 22.9 points.