Chicago BullsBulls
Fri, Oct 307:30 PMETBoston
Boston CelticsCeltics
CHI6.67BOS1.18SpreadBOS -11.5Total233.5via Polymarket

Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 30

By · Published

BOS

Statz pick

Boston Celtics to win

We give the Boston Celtics a 83% chance, against 17% for the Chicago Bulls. See the full projection →

83%
BOS to win
Polymarket1.18

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics at 83% to beat the Chicago Bulls on Friday 30 October, with a model line of -12.5 against a market line of -11.5. The model total of 232.9 sits just above the 232.0 market number. The injury that matters is on the Bulls' side: big man Nicolas Claxton is out.

The Chicago Bulls visit the Boston Celtics on Friday 30 October, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Boston the favourite at 83% to win, and the market agrees on the side, with the Celtics at -11.5 at DraftKings and Fanatics. The model line is slightly wider at -12.5. This is the second meeting between the sides in five days, and the first one was not close.

How the teams arrive

Boston is 3-1 this season, with a run of W W W L. The Celtics are scoring 119.8 and conceding 111.8 per game. Their wins came over Brooklyn (125-124), Chicago (134-99) and New York (107-103), all at home. The one defeat was a 113-121 loss at Detroit. Two of the three wins were tight, so the 134-99 result against the Bulls on 26 October stands out as the outlier. Boston is at home again tonight.

Chicago is 1-4, with a run of L L L W L. The Bulls average 114.0 points for and concede 130.2, and that defensive number is the problem. They lost 127-133 to New York at home and 120-124 to Washington at home. They won 132-125 at Milwaukee. They also lost 92-135 at Toronto and 99-134 at Boston. Two of those road defeats were by more than 30 points, and the Bulls now travel back to the same arena.

Team news and lineups

Boston has one name on the injury report. Devin Carter is out with mononucleosis and has no firm timetable, with a return date listed as 8 November. He signed a two-way deal and is backcourt depth, so his absence trims the guard rotation at the margins rather than reshaping it. The core minutes stay with the established names.

Chicago's list matters more. Nicolas Claxton is out with a hamstring injury. He has been doing individual drills and a return date of 4 November is listed, so he is not an option tonight. Without him the Bulls lose size and rim protection against a Boston side that scored 134 last time out. The frontcourt minutes have to be spread across the remaining bigs, which raises the cost of foul trouble.

Patrick Williams is also listed as out with left adductor soreness. Tonight was flagged as his next chance to make his season debut, but the report has him out. That leaves the Bulls thin at forward, and it puts more minutes on their wings against a deep Boston group.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is projected for 26.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.9 threes. He is the focal point of the Boston offence, and with Chicago short up front, his rebounding number is the one to watch.

Paul George

Paul George projects to 20.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.9 threes. He gives Boston a second scorer who can punish a Bulls defence that has been conceding 130.2 a game.

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard is projected for 18.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.9 threes. His output sits close to George's, which shows how much of the Celtics' scoring comes from the perimeter.

Norman Powell

Norman Powell leads the Bulls in the model at 19.3 points, with 3.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.7 threes. Chicago needs his scoring to keep pace, since the defence is not going to carry them.

Caleb Wilson

Caleb Wilson projects to 18.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 threes. With Claxton out, his rebounding becomes more important to Chicago than his scoring.

Matas Buzelis

Matas Buzelis is projected for 15.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.3 threes. He is a likely beneficiary of the extra forward minutes with Williams out.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Boston Celtics. It gives them 83% to win, with a projected score of 122.7 to 110.2. That puts the model line at -12.5, against a market spread of -11.5. The model leans to Boston to cover, and the gap is one point. Chicago's 1-4 start, its 130.2 points conceded per game and the 134-99 result on 26 October all support the favourite. The case against is the price: a double-digit spread leaves room for a late bench run, and Boston's wins over Brooklyn and New York were by one and four points.

On the total, the model projects 232.9 against a market line of 232.0 (DraftKings has 232.5). The gap is 0.9 points and the lean is to the over. Both offences have scored freely, and Chicago's defence has given up plenty. The edge is small, so treat it as a lean rather than a conviction.

Statz pick: Boston Celtics -11.5 at 1.91 (Fanatics). Compare the prices on our NBA odds page. Lines move before tip, so check the number again before you bet.

CHI @ BOS questions

Who is favoured in Chicago Bulls vs Boston Celtics?
The Boston Celtics are favoured by the Statz model at 83% to win. The market agrees, with Boston at -11.5 on the spread. The model line is a little wider at -12.5, so it leans to Boston covering.
What is the spread for Bulls vs Celtics on 30 October?
The market spread is Boston Celtics -11.5 and Chicago Bulls +11.5, priced at 1.90 at DraftKings and 1.91 at Fanatics. The Statz model line is Celtics -12.5, a gap of 1.0 points.
What is the over/under for Bulls at Celtics?
The market total is 232.0 at Fanatics and 232.5 at DraftKings. The Statz model projects 232.9 points, a gap of 0.9 points against the market, so the model leans to the over.
Who is injured for the Bulls and Celtics?
Chicago is without Nicolas Claxton (hamstring) and Patrick Williams (adductor), both listed as out. Boston has Devin Carter out with mononucleosis, with a return date of 8 November. Claxton's absence leaves the Bulls short on size.
How did the Bulls and Celtics meet earlier this season?
Boston beat Chicago 134-99 at home on 26 October. The Celtics are now 3-1 this season, while the Bulls are 1-4 and have lost three straight games before this rematch in Boston.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Chicago Bulls or Boston Celtics?

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics with a 83% win probability, leaving the Chicago Bulls at 17%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the Boston Celtics as the favourite at -11.5 on the spread. The moneyline is -588 for the Boston Celtics and +425 for the Chicago Bulls.

What is the spread and total for Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics?

Draftkings lists the Boston Celtics at -11.5 with the total at 232.5 for Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics?

For Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, the model projects Jayson Tatum for 26.9 points and Paul George for 20.6 points for the Boston Celtics. For the Chicago Bulls it projects Norman Powell for 19.3 points and Caleb Wilson for 18.2 points.