Cleveland CavaliersCavaliers
Thu, Oct 298:00 PMETAtlanta
Atlanta HawksHawks
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 29

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ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 56% chance, against 44% for the Cleveland Cavaliers. See the full projection →

56%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.98

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 56% over the Cleveland Cavaliers, with a model line of -2.0 and a projected total of 236.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare. The injury that matters is Mouhamed Gueye, out for Atlanta with a foot fracture.

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday 29 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model favours Atlanta at 56%, with a model line of -2.0 on the Hawks. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set that against. Check the NBA odds page once books open.

How the teams arrive

Atlanta sit at 2-2 and have lost their last two, both to Houston. They went down 110-120 in Houston on 26 October and 114-121 at home two days earlier. Before that came the high points: a 128-81 win at Charlotte and a 132-125 win at Orlando. The Hawks are averaging 121.0 points for and 111.8 against. That gap is flattered by the Charlotte blowout, but the scoring is real. They are a team that wins by outscoring people.

Cleveland are 2-1 and have won their last two, both at home. They beat Minnesota 127-125 and Brooklyn 125-121, each by a possession or two. Their one loss was 106-114 at Philadelphia, the only road game of the three. The Cavaliers average 119.3 points for and 120.0 against, so the defence has been giving up as much as the offence scores. The sample is small, and this is their first road game in this stretch that we can read.

Team news and lineups

Atlanta have two players ruled out. Mouhamed Gueye is out with a fractured left foot and has a listed return date of 20 November. He is the one that matters. Reporting on his injury says the rookie Zuby Ejiofor stands to pick up opportunities off the bench behind Onyeka Okongwu, with Jock Landale (ankle) as the projected backup centre. Atlanta's frontcourt depth is thin, and any foul trouble for the main big man pushes minutes to less proven options.

Henri Veesaar is also out after a right ACL tear. He is expected to miss the whole season. He was always likely to spend time in the G League, so the rotation effect is small.

Cleveland's list is light on rotation impact. Nae'Qwan Tomlin is out with a low back stress reaction. Khalifa Diop is on G League assignment, and Ernest Udeh, Jr. is on a two-way deal. None of the three carries a heavy workload, so Cleveland's minutes should run close to normal. The edge in depth goes to the visitors.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson is projected for 22.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists. He is the hub of the Atlanta offence and the best answer to a Cleveland frontcourt that is hard to score over. His passing keeps the shooters fed.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected for 20.8 points and 3.5 threes. The threes figure is the highest on either roster in this projection. If Atlanta pull clear, it will probably be on his shooting.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum is projected for 19.0 points, 3.7 assists and 2.7 threes. He gives Atlanta a second scoring guard, and that matters more when the bench is short up front.

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell leads Cleveland at 24.3 points, with 4.9 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.7 threes. The Cavaliers have leaned on close finishes this season. Mitchell is usually the one who decides them.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 7.7 assists, with 3.1 threes. He is the playmaker who sets the tempo. The assist number is the highest on the visiting side.

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is projected for 18.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He matters on both ends. With Atlanta missing frontcourt depth, his work inside is where Cleveland can press an advantage.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 56% win probability against 44% for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and a projected margin of 2.0 points. Its score projection is 119.2 for Atlanta and 117.1 for Cleveland, a close game with a narrow home edge.

There is no market comparison to make. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so the market side is missing. The model line is -2.0 on the Hawks and the model total is 236.3. Without a posted total there is no lean to give. Once a number appears, compare it with 236.3 before forming a view.

Both teams have been scoring freely, and Atlanta's depth issue up front is the main risk to the home side. The edge is small, and the price will decide whether it is worth taking.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks -2.0 (model line, 56% win probability).

Lines move before tip, so check the number again close to 8:00 PM ET.

CLE @ ATL questions

Who does the model favour in Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks?
The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 56% chance to win, against 44% for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and a model line of -2.0 on Atlanta. The projected margin is 2.0 points.
What is the projected total for Cavaliers at Hawks?
The model projects a total of 236.3 points. It has Atlanta scoring 119.2 and Cleveland 117.1. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
What time is Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks?
The game is on Thursday 29 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET in Atlanta. The Hawks are the home side and the Cavaliers are the visitors.
Which injuries matter for this game?
Mouhamed Gueye is out for Atlanta with a fractured left foot and has a listed return date of 20 November. Henri Veesaar is also out. Cleveland list Nae'Qwan Tomlin out, with Khalifa Diop and Ernest Udeh, Jr. on G League duty.
Are there market odds for this game yet?
No. No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. That also means there is no model-versus-market comparison for now. Lines move before tip.
Who is projected to score the most in this game?
Donovan Mitchell of Cleveland has the highest projected points at 24.3. For Atlanta, Jalen Johnson is projected for 22.1 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 20.8 points.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Cleveland Cavaliers or Atlanta Hawks?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 56% win probability, leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers at 44%. Over their last five games the Atlanta Hawks are 2-3 and the Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks?

For the Atlanta Hawks the model projects Jalen Johnson for 22.1 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 20.8 points. For the Cleveland Cavaliers it projects Donovan Mitchell for 24.3 points and James Harden for 20.0 points.