Yes, Rayo have taken 31 points over their last 20 La Liga games, 4.70 more than the 26.30 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Rayo create 1.43 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 28.58 in all, and have scored 29 goals from those chances, 0.42 more than that xG would expect.
Rayo allow 1.56 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 31.23 in all, and have conceded 28 goals from those chances, 3.23 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Sergio Camello has the most expected goals (xG) for Rayo over their last 20 La Liga games, 4.79 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 12 goals; Jorge de Frutos is next with 4.32 xG.
Rayo have taken 4.7 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +0.4 goals against their xG, and +3.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 28.58 | 29 | +0.42 | 31.23 | 28 | +3.23 | 26.30 | 31 | +4.70 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.48 | 16 | +2.52 | 17.26 | 18 | -0.74 | 12.03 | 15 | +2.97 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.99 | 9 | +2.01 | 9.33 | 13 | -3.67 | 6.00 | 7 | +1.00 |
| Home | 10 | 16.03 | 18 | +1.97 | 13.49 | 9 | +4.49 | 15.48 | 22 | +6.52 |
| Away | 10 | 12.55 | 11 | -1.55 | 17.74 | 19 | -1.26 | 10.82 | 9 | -1.82 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | La Liga | Osasuna (A) | 1-1 | 1.51 | 0.92 | 1.79 | 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | La Liga | Espanyol (H) | 2-1 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.13 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | La Liga | Real Madrid (A) | 4-1 | 1.35 | 2.96 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | La Liga | Racing (H) | 3-2 | 1.29 | 0.56 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 31 Aug | La Liga | Barcelona (A) | 5-2 | 1.20 | 2.81 | 0.56 | 0 | L |
| 20 Aug | La Liga | Alaves (H) | 1-1 | 0.57 | 1.60 | 0.63 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 2-1 | 1.65 | 2.38 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 23 May | La Liga | Alaves (A) | 1-2 | 1.35 | 2.03 | 0.97 | 3 | L |
| 17 May | La Liga | Villarreal (H) | 2-0 | 1.69 | 1.13 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 14 May | La Liga | Valencia (A) | 1-1 | 1.23 | 0.79 | 1.69 | 1 | W |
| 11 May | La Liga | Girona (H) | 1-1 | 1.46 | 1.13 | 1.60 | 1 | W |
| 3 May | La Liga | Getafe (A) | 0-2 | 0.84 | 1.47 | 0.91 | 3 | L |
| 26 Apr | La Liga | Sociedad (H) | 3-3 | 2.33 | 2.22 | 1.46 | 1 | W |
| 23 Apr | La Liga | Espanyol (H) | 1-0 | 1.49 | 1.92 | 1.12 | 3 | L |
| 12 Apr | La Liga | Mallorca (A) | 3-0 | 1.66 | 1.77 | 1.32 | 0 | L |
| 3 Apr | La Liga | Elche (H) | 1-0 | 1.38 | 0.49 | 2.05 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | La Liga | Barcelona (A) | 1-0 | 1.38 | 1.59 | 1.24 | 0 | L |
| 16 Mar | La Liga | Levante (H) | 1-1 | 1.54 | 1.50 | 1.41 | 1 | W |
| 8 Mar | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 1-1 | 0.38 | 1.02 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 4 Mar | La Liga | Oviedo (H) | 3-0 | 2.64 | 0.86 | 2.40 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | attacker | 16 | 834 | 4.79 | 12 | +7.21 | 0.52 |
| Alexandre Zurawski | attacker | 18 | 619 | 2.22 | 3 | +0.78 | 0.32 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | defender | 5 | 399 | 0.23 | 1 | +0.77 | 0.05 |
| Alfonso Espino | defender | 11 | 657 | 0.40 | 1 | +0.60 | 0.05 |
| Florian Lejeune | defender | 18 | 1620 | 1.48 | 2 | +0.52 | 0.08 |
| Randy Nteka | midfielder | 8 | 428 | 2.73 | 3 | +0.27 | 0.57 |
| Álvaro García | attacker | 14 | 936 | 2.74 | 3 | +0.26 | 0.26 |
| Andrei Rațiu | defender | 19 | 1416 | 1.07 | 1 | -0.07 | 0.07 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili | attacker | 4 | 201 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.24 |
| Unai López | midfielder | 17 | 1101 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.05 |
| Isi Palazón | attacker | 9 | 531 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.10 |
| Ilias Akhomach | attacker | 6 | 334 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.16 |
| Pathé Ciss | midfielder | 18 | 1374 | 1.60 | 1 | -0.60 | 0.11 |
| Carlos Martín | attacker | 7 | 254 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.26 |
| Fran Pérez | attacker | 13 | 524 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.13 |
| Gerard Gumbau | midfielder | 10 | 577 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.12 |
| Pedro Díaz | midfielder | 18 | 1023 | 1.54 | 0 | -1.54 | 0.14 |
| Jorge de Frutos | attacker | 18 | 1192 | 4.32 | 2 | -2.32 | 0.33 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |