No, QPR have taken 17 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, within 0.45 of the 16.55 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
QPR create 1.78 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 17.78 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 2.78 fewer than that xG would expect.
QPR allow 1.28 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 12.84 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 3.84 fewer than that xGA would expect.
R. Burrell has the most expected goals (xG) for QPR over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 2.59 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Nicolas Madsen is next with 2.32 xG.
QPR's results and their chances agree, within 0.5 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 17.78 | 15 | -2.78 | 12.84 | 9 | +3.84 | 16.55 | 17 | +0.45 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.02 | 8 | -0.02 | 6.74 | 5 | +1.74 | 7.27 | 7 | -0.27 |
| Home | 5 | 11.25 | 8 | -3.25 | 5.39 | 5 | +0.39 | 10.30 | 8 | -2.30 |
| Away | 5 | 6.53 | 7 | +0.47 | 7.45 | 4 | +3.45 | 6.25 | 9 | +2.75 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Championship | Derby (H) | 4-1 | 1.64 | 1.07 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| 9 Oct | Championship | West Ham (A) | 1-1 | 1.34 | 1.84 | 1.07 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Preston (H) | 2-2 | 3.56 | 1.45 | 2.38 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | WBA (A) | 1-1 | 0.67 | 1.58 | 0.72 | 1 | L |
| 9 Sep | Championship | Charlton (A) | 0-0 | 0.81 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 1 | D |
| 5 Sep | Championship | M'Boro (H) | 0-1 | 1.47 | 2.07 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 2 Sep | Championship | Cardiff (H) | 2-1 | 2.49 | 0.64 | 2.48 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Blackburn (A) | 1-2 | 1.65 | 0.97 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Bolton (H) | 0-0 | 2.09 | 0.16 | 2.64 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Portsmouth (A) | 1-3 | 2.06 | 2.26 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Patrick Smyth | attacker | 9 | 476 | 0.84 | 3 | +2.16 | 0.16 |
| Jimmy Dunne | defender | 9 | 768 | 0.63 | 1 | +0.37 | 0.07 |
| Koki Saito | attacker | 6 | 353 | 0.67 | 1 | +0.33 | 0.17 |
| Ilias Chair | midfielder | 5 | 293 | 1.76 | 2 | +0.24 | 0.54 |
| Harvey Vale | midfielder | 8 | 632 | 1.27 | 1 | -0.27 | 0.18 |
| Nicolas Madsen | midfielder | 9 | 574 | 2.32 | 2 | -0.32 | 0.36 |
| R. Burrell | attacker | 8 | 595 | 2.59 | 2 | -0.59 | 0.39 |
| Alfie Lloyd | attacker | 7 | 287 | 1.75 | 1 | -0.75 | 0.55 |
| Ronnie Edwards | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.89 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.09 |
| Kwame Poku | attacker | 8 | 492 | 1.90 | 1 | -0.90 | 0.35 |
| Richard Kone | attacker | 5 | 207 | 1.01 | 0 | -1.01 | 0.44 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |