No, Orenburg have taken 16 points over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, within 0.86 of the 16.86 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Orenburg create 1.41 expected goals (xG) per game over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 16.88 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 2.88 fewer than that xG would expect.
Orenburg allow 1.39 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 16.73 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 4.73 fewer than that xGA would expect.
J. Thompson has the most expected goals (xG) for Orenburg over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 2.66 xG in 5 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; G. Guzina is next with 1.24 xG.
Orenburg's results and their chances agree, within 0.9 points of xPts over 12 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 12 | 16.88 | 14 | -2.88 | 16.73 | 12 | +4.73 | 16.86 | 16 | -0.86 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.68 | 12 | -2.68 | 14.86 | 8 | +6.86 | 13.90 | 13 | -0.90 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.77 | 7 | -0.77 | 9.16 | 3 | +6.16 | 6.13 | 8 | +1.87 |
| Home | 6 | 10.68 | 9 | -1.68 | 5.81 | 7 | -1.19 | 10.91 | 9 | -1.91 |
| Away | 6 | 6.20 | 5 | -1.20 | 10.92 | 5 | +5.92 | 5.95 | 7 | +1.05 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct | Russian Premier League | Akhmat Grozny (A) | 0-1 | 0.75 | 2.11 | 0.55 | 3 | L |
| 19 Oct | Russian Premier League | Rodina Moskva (A) | 2-2 | 2.19 | 1.90 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | Russian Premier League | Dynamo Makhachkala (H) | 4-0 | 3.15 | 1.30 | 2.34 | 3 | W |
| 17 Sep | Russian Premier League | Krasnodar (H) | 0-0 | 1.28 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Russian Premier League | Dinamo Moskva (A) | 1-0 | 0.40 | 2.71 | 0.22 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Russian Premier League | Akron (H) | 2-2 | 1.15 | 0.95 | 1.51 | 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | Russian Premier League | Spartak Moskva (A) | 1-1 | 0.33 | 2.62 | 0.20 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Russian Premier League | Fakel (A) | 0-0 | 1.57 | 0.91 | 1.84 | 1 | W |
| 14 Aug | Russian Premier League | Lokomotiv Moskva (H) | 1-1 | 2.90 | 0.55 | 2.64 | 1 | W |
| 9 Aug | Russian Premier League | Rubin Kazan (A) | 1-1 | 0.96 | 0.67 | 1.58 | 1 | W |
| 2 Aug | Russian Premier League | Zenit (H) | 0-3 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0 | W |
| 26 Jul | Russian Premier League | Rostov (H) | 2-1 | 1.09 | 0.87 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrey Kasadzhikov | attacker | 12 | 347 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruslan Kul | attacker | 11 | 882 | 0.15 | 2 | +1.85 | 0.02 |
| G. Guzina | attacker | 12 | 910 | 1.24 | 3 | +1.76 | 0.12 |
| Alexandre Jesus | attacker | 8 | 122 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Tsenov | defender | 11 | 913 | 0.07 | 1 | +0.93 | 0.01 |
| D. Rybchinskiy | midfielder | 12 | 833 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.03 |
| Jhon Alex Palacios | defender | 11 | 990 | 0.31 | 1 | +0.69 | 0.03 |
| J. Thompson | attacker | 5 | 320 | 2.66 | 3 | +0.34 | 0.75 |
| Damián Puebla | midfielder | 12 | 851 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.72 | 0.08 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 22.2 | 27 | 13.4 | 13 | 21.2 | 27 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 12 | 15.9 | 20 | 14.5 | 14 | 17.3 | 23 | +5.7 |
| 3 | CSKA Moskva | 12 | 21.3 | 21 | 16.9 | 12 | 19.4 | 25 | +5.6 |
| 4 | Dinamo Moskva | 12 | 23.1 | 19 | 12.7 | 12 | 22.6 | 25 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Spartak Moskva | 12 | 21.1 | 21 | 12.8 | 10 | 20.7 | 23 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 12 | 13 | 25.4 | 27 | 9.3 | 9 | -0.3 |
| 7 | Rostov | 12 | 12.8 | 13 | 14.3 | 17 | 15.4 | 15 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Orenburg | 12 | 16.9 | 14 | 16.7 | 12 | 16.8 | 16 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 12 | 11.9 | 12 | 18.6 | 18 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Akron | 12 | 12.6 | 15 | 17.3 | 21 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 12 | 14.9 | 16 | 22.3 | 16 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Krylya Sovetov | 12 | 18.1 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 18.4 | 15 | -3.4 |
| 13 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 12 | 16 | 16 | 17.6 | 23 | 16.6 | 13 | -3.6 |
| 14 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 12 | 16.7 | 15 | 11.5 | 13 | 19.7 | 14 | -5.7 |
| 15 | Akhmat Grozny | 12 | 14.1 | 15 | 13.6 | 17 | 16.7 | 11 | -5.7 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 12.6 | 8 | 19.5 | 20 | 12.5 | 6 | -6.5 |