No, Baltika Kaliningrad have taken 14 points over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 5.72 fewer than the 19.72 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Baltika Kaliningrad create 1.39 expected goals (xG) per game over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 16.69 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 1.69 fewer than that xG would expect.
Baltika Kaliningrad allow 0.96 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 11.47 in all, and have conceded 13 goals from those chances, 1.53 more than that xGA would expect.
Maksim Petrov has the most expected goals (xG) for Baltika Kaliningrad over 12 Russian Premier League games in 2026/2027, 0.64 xG in 12 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; B. Gil is next with 0.49 xG.
Baltika Kaliningrad have taken 5.7 points fewer than their chances warranted over 12 games: -1.7 goals against their xG, and -1.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 12 | 16.69 | 15 | -1.69 | 11.47 | 13 | -1.53 | 19.72 | 14 | -5.72 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.61 | 12 | -1.61 | 8.36 | 10 | -1.64 | 16.97 | 11 | -5.97 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.09 | 5 | -2.09 | 5.29 | 6 | -0.71 | 7.72 | 4 | -3.72 |
| Home | 6 | 7.72 | 6 | -1.72 | 5.29 | 8 | -2.71 | 9.75 | 5 | -4.75 |
| Away | 6 | 8.97 | 9 | +0.03 | 6.18 | 5 | +1.18 | 9.97 | 9 | -0.97 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct | Russian Premier League | Krasnodar (A) | 1-1 | 0.98 | 1.11 | 1.25 | 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | Russian Premier League | Rostov (H) | 0-0 | 0.72 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | Russian Premier League | Akhmat Grozny (A) | 0-0 | 0.68 | 1.51 | 0.77 | 1 | L |
| 16 Sep | Russian Premier League | Zenit (H) | 2-3 | 2.25 | 0.84 | 2.26 | 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | Russian Premier League | Fakel (A) | 2-2 | 2.46 | 0.62 | 2.48 | 1 | W |
| 6 Sep | Russian Premier League | Lokomotiv Moskva (H) | 0-1 | 0.72 | 0.61 | 1.40 | 0 | D |
| 30 Aug | Russian Premier League | Rodina Moskva (A) | 0-3 | 2.10 | 0.54 | 2.39 | 3 | W |
| 24 Aug | Russian Premier League | Rubin Kazan (H) | 1-1 | 1.15 | 0.67 | 1.73 | 1 | W |
| 16 Aug | Russian Premier League | Spartak Moskva (H) | 1-2 | 1.24 | 0.68 | 1.79 | 0 | W |
| 8 Aug | Russian Premier League | Krylya Sovetov (A) | 0-2 | 1.31 | 0.57 | 1.94 | 3 | W |
| 1 Aug | Russian Premier League | Dinamo Moskva (H) | 2-1 | 1.64 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 3 | W |
| 24 Jul | Russian Premier League | CSKA Moskva (A) | 2-1 | 1.44 | 1.83 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gil | attacker | 11 | 604 | 0.49 | 4 | +3.51 | 0.07 |
| Chinonso Offor | attacker | 10 | 453 | 0.21 | 2 | +1.79 | 0.04 |
| S. Varatynov | defender | 12 | 995 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolai Titkov | midfielder | 7 | 551 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Aymane Mourid | midfielder | 8 | 594 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Egor Golenkov | attacker | 3 | 131 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrey Mendel | midfielder | 11 | 810 | 0.04 | 1 | +0.96 | 0.00 |
| E. Ćivić | defender | 7 | 441 | 0.11 | 1 | +0.89 | 0.02 |
| Ilya Petrov | midfielder | 7 | 330 | 0.16 | 1 | +0.84 | 0.04 |
| Loris Mouyokolo | defender | 8 | 720 | 0.25 | 1 | +0.75 | 0.03 |
| Maksim Petrov | midfielder | 12 | 671 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.09 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 22.2 | 27 | 13.4 | 13 | 21.2 | 27 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 12 | 15.9 | 20 | 14.5 | 14 | 17.3 | 23 | +5.7 |
| 3 | CSKA Moskva | 12 | 21.3 | 21 | 16.9 | 12 | 19.4 | 25 | +5.6 |
| 4 | Dinamo Moskva | 12 | 23.1 | 19 | 12.7 | 12 | 22.6 | 25 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Spartak Moskva | 12 | 21.1 | 21 | 12.8 | 10 | 20.7 | 23 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 12 | 13 | 25.4 | 27 | 9.3 | 9 | -0.3 |
| 7 | Rostov | 12 | 12.8 | 13 | 14.3 | 17 | 15.4 | 15 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Orenburg | 12 | 16.9 | 14 | 16.7 | 12 | 16.8 | 16 | -0.8 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 12 | 11.9 | 12 | 18.6 | 18 | 12.9 | 12 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Akron | 12 | 12.6 | 15 | 17.3 | 21 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Moskva | 12 | 14.9 | 16 | 22.3 | 16 | 12.5 | 11 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Krylya Sovetov | 12 | 18.1 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 18.4 | 15 | -3.4 |
| 13 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 12 | 16 | 16 | 17.6 | 23 | 16.6 | 13 | -3.6 |
| 14 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 12 | 16.7 | 15 | 11.5 | 13 | 19.7 | 14 | -5.7 |
| 15 | Akhmat Grozny | 12 | 14.1 | 15 | 13.6 | 17 | 16.7 | 11 | -5.7 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 12.6 | 8 | 19.5 | 20 | 12.5 | 6 | -6.5 |