No, Fiorentina have taken 28 points over their last 20 Serie A games, within 2.32 of the 25.68 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Fiorentina create 1.18 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 23.53 in all, and have scored 21 goals from those chances, 2.53 fewer than that xG would expect.
Fiorentina allow 1.35 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 27.00 in all, and have conceded 26 goals from those chances, 1.00 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Cher Ndour has the most expected goals (xG) for Fiorentina over their last 20 Serie A games, 2.20 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Franco Mastantuono is next with 2.18 xG.
Fiorentina's results and their chances agree, within 2.3 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 23.53 | 21 | -2.53 | 27.00 | 26 | +1.00 | 25.68 | 28 | +2.32 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.46 | 10 | -2.46 | 15.55 | 19 | -3.45 | 12.29 | 9 | -3.29 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.46 | 7 | -2.46 | 5.55 | 10 | -4.45 | 9.14 | 4 | -5.14 |
| Home | 10 | 13.80 | 6 | -7.80 | 10.56 | 8 | +2.56 | 15.97 | 12 | -3.97 |
| Away | 10 | 9.73 | 15 | +5.27 | 16.44 | 18 | -1.56 | 9.71 | 16 | +6.29 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Serie A | Genoa (A) | 2-1 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 1.47 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Serie A | Napoli (H) | 1-1 | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.41 | 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | Serie A | Venezia (A) | 2-4 | 2.99 | 0.64 | 2.62 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Serie A | Torino (H) | 1-2 | 1.50 | 0.84 | 1.84 | 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | Serie A | Frosinone (H) | 0-3 | 2.28 | 1.58 | 1.80 | 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | Serie A | Roma (A) | 4-0 | 0.36 | 3.10 | 0.14 | 0 | L |
| 22 May | Serie A | Atalanta (H) | 1-1 | 0.79 | 1.67 | 0.77 | 1 | L |
| 17 May | Serie A | Juventus (A) | 0-2 | 0.65 | 2.15 | 0.48 | 3 | L |
| 10 May | Serie A | Genoa (H) | 0-0 | 1.06 | 0.73 | 1.61 | 1 | W |
| 4 May | Serie A | Roma (A) | 4-0 | 0.14 | 2.35 | 0.15 | 0 | L |
| 26 Apr | Serie A | Sassuolo (H) | 0-0 | 2.00 | 1.16 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 20 Apr | Serie A | Lecce (A) | 1-1 | 1.00 | 1.97 | 0.78 | 1 | L |
| 13 Apr | Serie A | Lazio (H) | 1-0 | 0.62 | 1.32 | 0.81 | 3 | L |
| 4 Apr | Serie A | Hellas Verona (A) | 0-1 | 0.38 | 1.18 | 0.67 | 3 | L |
| 22 Mar | Serie A | Inter (H) | 1-1 | 1.62 | 1.10 | 1.73 | 1 | W |
| 16 Mar | Serie A | Cremonese (A) | 1-4 | 1.03 | 1.30 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 8 Mar | Serie A | Parma (H) | 0-0 | 1.50 | 0.37 | 2.23 | 1 | W |
| 2 Mar | Serie A | Udinese (A) | 3-0 | 0.79 | 1.61 | 0.80 | 0 | L |
| 23 Feb | Serie A | Pisa (H) | 1-0 | 0.91 | 0.32 | 1.85 | 3 | W |
| 14 Feb | Serie A | Como (A) | 1-2 | 1.22 | 1.12 | 1.44 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino | attacker | 6 | 377 | 0.74 | 2 | +1.26 | 0.18 |
| Álex Jiménez | defender | 5 | 372 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.03 |
| Franco Mastantuono | attacker | 6 | 468 | 2.18 | 3 | +0.82 | 0.42 |
| Robin Gosens | defender | 10 | 758 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.04 |
| Dodô | defender | 14 | 1168 | 0.50 | 1 | +0.50 | 0.04 |
| Roberto Piccoli | attacker | 12 | 633 | 1.62 | 2 | +0.38 | 0.23 |
| Fabiano Parisi | defender | 8 | 582 | 0.72 | 1 | +0.28 | 0.11 |
| Jack Harrison | attacker | 13 | 906 | 0.83 | 1 | +0.17 | 0.08 |
| Moise Kean | attacker | 6 | 430 | 1.84 | 2 | +0.16 | 0.38 |
| Rolando Mandragora | midfielder | 12 | 770 | 0.84 | 1 | +0.16 | 0.10 |
| Nicolò Fagioli | midfielder | 18 | 1469 | 1.95 | 2 | +0.05 | 0.12 |
| Cher Ndour | midfielder | 20 | 1444 | 2.20 | 2 | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| Luca Ranieri | defender | 17 | 1461 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.04 |
| Giovanni Fabbian | midfielder | 12 | 353 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.15 |
| Albert Gudmundsson | attacker | 12 | 804 | 1.98 | 1 | -0.98 | 0.22 |
| Arthur Atta | midfielder | 5 | 334 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.16 | 0.31 |
| Beto | attacker | 4 | 163 | 1.78 | 0 | -1.78 | 0.98 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 10.7 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | 4 | 8.9 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 6 | 6.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 8 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 16.8 | 18 | 6.7 | 8 | 13.4 | 16 | +2.6 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 6 | 13.5 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 9.2 | 6 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Lecce | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Torino | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6.1 | 7 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Napoli | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Parma | 6 | 4.6 | 4 | 10.2 | 10 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 6 | 10.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 9.7 | 9 | 3.6 | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 7.3 | 9 | 10.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Genoa | 6 | 5.8 | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Bologna | 6 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Monza | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | 8.1 | 15 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 9.8 | 7 | 8.7 | 14 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 10.2 | 5 | 12.7 | 16 | 7.1 | 0 | -7.1 |