No, Koln have taken 19 points over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 8.16 fewer than the 27.16 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Koln create 1.66 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 33.27 in all, and have scored 29 goals from those chances, 4.27 fewer than that xG would expect.
Koln allow 1.73 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 34.54 in all, and have conceded 41 goals from those chances, 6.46 more than that xGA would expect.
Said El Mala has the most expected goals (xG) for Koln over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 7.16 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Ragnar Ache is next with 5.41 xG.
Koln have taken 8.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -4.3 goals against their xG, and -6.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 33.27 | 29 | -4.27 | 34.54 | 41 | -6.46 | 27.16 | 19 | -8.16 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 17.01 | 14 | -3.01 | 18.88 | 23 | -4.12 | 13.28 | 9 | -4.28 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.45 | 8 | -1.45 | 9.71 | 10 | -0.29 | 7.13 | 7 | -0.13 |
| Home | 11 | 19.97 | 19 | -0.97 | 17.53 | 19 | -1.47 | 16.36 | 15 | -1.36 |
| Away | 9 | 13.30 | 10 | -3.30 | 17.01 | 22 | -4.99 | 10.80 | 4 | -6.80 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Bundesliga | Gladbach (H) | 2-1 | 1.71 | 1.30 | 1.65 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Bundesliga | Hamburg (A) | 2-1 | 1.66 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | Bundesliga | Bremen (H) | 1-1 | 2.05 | 1.33 | 1.83 | 1 | W |
| 4 Sep | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (A) | 4-1 | 2.08 | 3.83 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (H) | 3-2 | 1.95 | 1.81 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Bayern (A) | 5-1 | 0.65 | 2.98 | 0.27 | 0 | L |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | Heidenheim (H) | 1-3 | 1.15 | 1.66 | 1.04 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Bundesliga | U Berlin (A) | 2-2 | 1.41 | 1.18 | 1.53 | 1 | W |
| 25 Apr | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (H) | 1-2 | 2.80 | 1.68 | 2.00 | 0 | W |
| 17 Apr | Bundesliga | St. Pauli (A) | 1-1 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 1.31 | 1 | L |
| 12 Apr | Bundesliga | Bremen (H) | 3-1 | 3.79 | 0.98 | 2.62 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (A) | 2-2 | 2.84 | 2.38 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| 21 Mar | Bundesliga | Gladbach (H) | 3-3 | 1.57 | 0.93 | 1.82 | 1 | W |
| 14 Mar | Bundesliga | Hamburg (A) | 1-1 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 2.03 | 1 | W |
| 7 Mar | Bundesliga | Dortmund (H) | 1-2 | 1.57 | 1.48 | 1.44 | 0 | W |
| 27 Feb | Bundesliga | Augsburg (A) | 2-0 | 0.49 | 1.27 | 0.73 | 0 | L |
| 21 Feb | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (H) | 2-2 | 0.89 | 2.28 | 0.58 | 1 | L |
| 14 Feb | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (A) | 3-1 | 1.49 | 1.93 | 1.12 | 0 | L |
| 8 Feb | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (H) | 1-2 | 1.36 | 2.79 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 30 Jan | Bundesliga | Wolfsburg (H) | 1-0 | 1.13 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linton Maina | attacker | 16 | 821 | 0.76 | 2 | +1.24 | 0.08 |
| Said El Mala | attacker | 19 | 1294 | 7.16 | 8 | +0.84 | 0.50 |
| Ísak Jóhannesson | midfielder | 18 | 1036 | 1.19 | 2 | +0.81 | 0.10 |
| Jan Thielmann | attacker | 13 | 610 | 0.77 | 1 | +0.23 | 0.11 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes | midfielder | 11 | 643 | 0.86 | 1 | +0.14 | 0.12 |
| Thijs Dallinga | attacker | 3 | 153 | 1.96 | 2 | +0.04 | 1.15 |
| Luca Waldschmidt | attacker | 13 | 273 | 2.00 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Marius Bülter | attacker | 20 | 852 | 3.09 | 3 | -0.09 | 0.33 |
| Eric Martel | midfielder | 13 | 1116 | 1.37 | 1 | -0.37 | 0.11 |
| Ragnar Ache | attacker | 15 | 1078 | 5.41 | 5 | -0.41 | 0.45 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | defender | 13 | 1044 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.05 |
| Cenk Özkacar | defender | 15 | 1281 | 0.55 | 0 | -0.55 | 0.04 |
| Mikey Moore | attacker | 4 | 293 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.23 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen | defender | 14 | 1085 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.06 |
| Tom Krauß | midfielder | 16 | 1242 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.06 |
| Jakub Kamiński | attacker | 15 | 1317 | 3.58 | 2 | -1.58 | 0.24 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | 14.3 | 8 | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | 4.6 | 4 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 5.9 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 4.4 | 4 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Elversberg | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 9.7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 6.1 | 4 | 10.4 | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 12 | 14 | 6.3 | 8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 9.7 | 10 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 5 | 5.1 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 13 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 15.1 | 16 | 4.2 | 4 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | 10.2 | 17 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 11.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 10 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | 14.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 18 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | 8.1 | 13 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |