Yes, Augsburg have taken 32 points over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 7.58 more than the 24.42 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Augsburg create 1.72 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 34.34 in all, and have scored 36 goals from those chances, 1.66 more than that xG would expect.
Augsburg allow 2.20 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 44.07 in all, and have conceded 33 goals from those chances, 11.07 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Michael Gregoritsch has the most expected goals (xG) for Augsburg over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 6.23 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 9 goals; Rodrigo Ribeiro is next with 4.48 xG.
Augsburg have taken 7.6 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +1.7 goals against their xG, and +11.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 34.34 | 36 | +1.66 | 44.07 | 33 | +11.07 | 24.42 | 32 | +7.58 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 17.37 | 22 | +4.63 | 25.45 | 16 | +9.45 | 11.20 | 18 | +6.80 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.71 | 13 | +4.29 | 14.34 | 8 | +6.34 | 4.53 | 8 | +3.47 |
| Home | 10 | 18.15 | 20 | +1.85 | 19.56 | 14 | +5.56 | 14.26 | 19 | +4.74 |
| Away | 10 | 16.19 | 16 | -0.19 | 24.51 | 19 | +5.51 | 10.16 | 13 | +2.84 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bundesliga | Bayern (H) | 2-2 | 1.40 | 5.09 | 0.18 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Bundesliga | Bremen (A) | 3-2 | 0.84 | 2.39 | 0.51 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (H) | 2-2 | 0.96 | 2.90 | 0.42 | 1 | L |
| 6 Sep | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (A) | 1-4 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 1.04 | 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | Bundesliga | Schalke (H) | 3-0 | 3.78 | 1.59 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | U Berlin (A) | 4-0 | 0.63 | 2.36 | 0.40 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | Gladbach (H) | 3-1 | 2.05 | 1.15 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Bundesliga | Bremen (A) | 1-3 | 2.36 | 1.04 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (H) | 1-1 | 2.22 | 1.25 | 1.98 | 1 | W |
| 18 Apr | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (A) | 1-2 | 1.40 | 5.31 | 0.16 | 3 | L |
| 10 Apr | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (H) | 2-2 | 1.99 | 1.22 | 1.87 | 1 | W |
| 4 Apr | Bundesliga | Hamburg (A) | 1-1 | 2.83 | 2.54 | 1.55 | 1 | W |
| 22 Mar | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (H) | 2-5 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 0.91 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 2-0 | 0.50 | 2.56 | 0.29 | 0 | L |
| 7 Mar | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (A) | 2-1 | 3.26 | 2.07 | 1.98 | 0 | W |
| 27 Feb | Bundesliga | Koln (H) | 2-0 | 1.27 | 0.49 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 21 Feb | Bundesliga | Wolfsburg (A) | 2-3 | 1.87 | 1.64 | 1.53 | 3 | W |
| 15 Feb | Bundesliga | Heidenheim (H) | 1-0 | 2.00 | 0.96 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| 7 Feb | Bundesliga | Mainz (A) | 2-0 | 0.77 | 2.23 | 0.52 | 0 | L |
| 31 Jan | Bundesliga | St. Pauli (H) | 2-1 | 0.98 | 2.55 | 0.53 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gregoritsch | attacker | 19 | 1045 | 6.23 | 9 | +2.77 | 0.54 |
| Robin Fellhauer | midfielder | 20 | 1633 | 2.79 | 5 | +2.21 | 0.15 |
| Fabian Rieder | midfielder | 20 | 1535 | 1.82 | 4 | +2.18 | 0.11 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj | midfielder | 10 | 311 | 0.11 | 1 | +0.89 | 0.03 |
| Calvin Brackelmann | defender | 5 | 437 | 0.31 | 1 | +0.69 | 0.06 |
| Anton Kade | midfielder | 16 | 978 | 4.33 | 5 | +0.67 | 0.40 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic | midfielder | 3 | 202 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.28 |
| Arthur Chaves | defender | 10 | 744 | 0.89 | 1 | +0.11 | 0.11 |
| Kristijan Jakic | midfielder | 11 | 587 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.18 |
| Alexis Claude-Maurice | midfielder | 16 | 1124 | 4.40 | 4 | -0.40 | 0.35 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro | attacker | 19 | 776 | 4.48 | 4 | -0.48 | 0.52 |
| Finn Dahmen | goalkeeper | 20 | 1800 | 0.51 | 0 | -0.51 | 0.03 |
| Noahkai Banks | defender | 12 | 926 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.06 |
| Han-Noah Massengo | midfielder | 19 | 1314 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.05 |
| Cédric Zesiger | defender | 14 | 1137 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.05 |
| Marius Wolf | defender | 18 | 877 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.07 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck | defender | 10 | 825 | 0.87 | 0 | -0.87 | 0.09 |
| Mert Kömür | midfielder | 16 | 645 | 1.62 | 0 | -1.62 | 0.23 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | 14.3 | 8 | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | 4.6 | 4 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 5.9 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 4.4 | 4 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Elversberg | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 9.7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 6.1 | 4 | 10.4 | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 12 | 14 | 6.3 | 8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 9.7 | 10 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 5 | 5.1 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 13 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 15.1 | 16 | 4.2 | 4 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | 10.2 | 17 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 11.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 10 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | 14.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 18 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | 8.1 | 13 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |