No, Atalanta have taken 29 points over their last 20 Serie A games, within 0.02 of the 28.98 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Atalanta create 1.44 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 28.74 in all, and have scored 27 goals from those chances, 1.74 fewer than that xG would expect.
Atalanta allow 1.31 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 26.26 in all, and have conceded 23 goals from those chances, 3.26 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Nikola Krstović has the most expected goals (xG) for Atalanta over their last 20 Serie A games, 7.97 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Éderson is next with 2.79 xG.
Atalanta's results and their chances agree, within 0.0 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 28.74 | 27 | -1.74 | 26.26 | 23 | +3.26 | 28.98 | 29 | +0.02 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.64 | 12 | -0.64 | 15.33 | 12 | +3.33 | 12.40 | 14 | +1.60 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.76 | 6 | +0.24 | 8.70 | 7 | +1.70 | 5.15 | 6 | +0.85 |
| Home | 10 | 14.31 | 12 | -2.31 | 11.30 | 9 | +2.30 | 15.53 | 17 | +1.47 |
| Away | 10 | 14.43 | 15 | +0.57 | 14.96 | 14 | +0.96 | 13.45 | 12 | -1.45 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | Serie A | Venezia (H) | 3-1 | 1.97 | 2.16 | 1.28 | 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | Serie A | Juventus (A) | 2-0 | 0.98 | 1.36 | 1.08 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Serie A | Cagliari (H) | 1-2 | 1.58 | 1.12 | 1.69 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | Serie A | Roma (A) | 2-1 | 0.97 | 3.27 | 0.34 | 0 | L |
| 31 Aug | Serie A | Bologna (H) | 1-0 | 0.26 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | Serie A | Sassuolo (H) | 2-1 | 0.90 | 2.54 | 0.49 | 3 | L |
| 22 May | Serie A | Fiorentina (A) | 1-1 | 1.67 | 0.79 | 1.99 | 1 | W |
| 17 May | Serie A | Bologna (H) | 0-1 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 1.37 | 0 | W |
| 10 May | Serie A | AC Milan (A) | 2-3 | 1.24 | 2.02 | 0.91 | 3 | L |
| 2 May | Serie A | Genoa (H) | 0-0 | 2.18 | 0.44 | 2.49 | 1 | W |
| 27 Apr | Serie A | Cagliari (A) | 3-2 | 1.13 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Serie A | Roma (A) | 1-1 | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.97 | 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | Serie A | Juventus (H) | 0-1 | 2.18 | 0.97 | 2.14 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | Serie A | Lecce (A) | 0-3 | 2.58 | 0.47 | 2.60 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | Serie A | Hellas Verona (H) | 1-0 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.32 | 3 | L |
| 14 Mar | Serie A | Inter (A) | 1-1 | 0.61 | 1.85 | 0.56 | 1 | L |
| 7 Mar | Serie A | Udinese (H) | 2-2 | 2.28 | 0.65 | 2.39 | 1 | W |
| 1 Mar | Serie A | Sassuolo (A) | 2-1 | 2.95 | 1.22 | 2.32 | 0 | W |
| 22 Feb | Serie A | Napoli (H) | 2-1 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 1.60 | 3 | W |
| 14 Feb | Serie A | Lazio (A) | 0-2 | 1.63 | 1.57 | 1.42 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca | attacker | 13 | 654 | 1.79 | 5 | +3.21 | 0.25 |
| Giacomo Raspadori | attacker | 14 | 769 | 2.13 | 3 | +0.87 | 0.25 |
| Yunus Musah | midfielder | 6 | 205 | 0.44 | 1 | +0.56 | 0.19 |
| Franck Kessié | midfielder | 4 | 245 | 0.53 | 1 | +0.47 | 0.19 |
| Davide Zappacosta | midfielder | 18 | 1291 | 1.57 | 2 | +0.43 | 0.11 |
| Éderson | midfielder | 16 | 1245 | 2.79 | 3 | +0.21 | 0.20 |
| Giorgio Scalvini | defender | 19 | 1513 | 0.91 | 1 | +0.09 | 0.05 |
| Nicola Zalewski | midfielder | 17 | 960 | 1.11 | 1 | -0.11 | 0.10 |
| Lazar Samardžić | midfielder | 15 | 667 | 2.25 | 2 | -0.25 | 0.30 |
| Mario Pašalić | midfielder | 17 | 868 | 1.43 | 1 | -0.43 | 0.15 |
| Jonathan Rowe | attacker | 3 | 250 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.22 |
| Honest Ahanor | defender | 8 | 390 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.16 |
| Berat Djimsiti | defender | 13 | 879 | 0.73 | 0 | -0.73 | 0.07 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana | attacker | 8 | 342 | 1.04 | 0 | -1.04 | 0.27 |
| Charles De Ketelaere | midfielder | 16 | 1057 | 1.36 | 0 | -1.36 | 0.12 |
| Nikola Krstović | attacker | 19 | 1179 | 7.97 | 6 | -1.97 | 0.61 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 10.7 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | 4 | 8.9 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 6 | 6.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 8 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 16.8 | 18 | 6.7 | 8 | 13.4 | 16 | +2.6 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 6 | 13.5 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 9.2 | 6 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Lecce | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Torino | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6.1 | 7 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Napoli | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Parma | 6 | 4.6 | 4 | 10.2 | 10 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 6 | 10.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 9.7 | 9 | 3.6 | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 7.3 | 9 | 10.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Genoa | 6 | 5.8 | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Bologna | 6 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Monza | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | 8.1 | 15 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 9.8 | 7 | 8.7 | 14 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 10.2 | 5 | 12.7 | 16 | 7.1 | 0 | -7.1 |