3/1 Bet Builder for RB Leipzig v Man City

RB Leipzig host Manchester City at the Red Bull Arena in the Champions League, kick-off 20:00 on Wednesday, and our model has City comfortably ahead: 57% to win, the draw 21% and Leipzig 22%, with 1-2 the likeliest single score. City arrive after two Premier League defeats, 2-1 at Aston Villa and 1-0 at home to Brighton, while Leipzig have won their last two in the Bundesliga.

So here is the 3/1 bet builder: Haaland to score, Guéhi to commit 1+ foul and Orbán to have 1+ shot. All three are in our predicted XI. Two are City players, because Leipzig's best-supported lines are priced too short to build on: Rômulo has had a shot in all 8 of his games, for example, but at 1/33 there is nothing to build on.

Below we go through how we found each one, what the stats pages show and where the price comes from. The match page has the lineups, projections and bets for the game, and the RB Leipzig v Man City bet builder page has the live prices if you want to build it yourself.

The slip

RB Leipzig v Man City

Champions League - Wed 8pm

Our bet builder

@ 3/1

bet365 builder

LAST 5ODDS

E. Haaland

To Score

012214/5 hit

1/2

M. Guéhi

1+ Fouls

012214/5 hit

4/7

W. Orbán

1+ Shots

110124/5 hit

4/6

bet365 builder price, checked 09:17 GMT on Wednesday 4 November. Last five games, most recent first.Customise

The 3/1 is bet365's own builder price for the three selections together, 3.80 in decimals, a little shorter than the 3.93 you get by multiplying the three prices. Each square is one of the player's last five games, green where he cleared the line. His season record is in the section on him below.

How we built it

We build these the same way every time. The order matters, because each step cuts the list down.

1. Start with the match. The RB Leipzig v Man City shots page lines both squads up on one stat: each player's last five games, our model's chance at the line and the bet365 price. The same view works for fouls and tackles. At 1+ shots the likeliest shooters are priced between 1/33 and 1/7 (Rômulo and Cherki 1.03, Foden 1.04, Doku 1.05, Nusa 1.07, Gruda 1.14), so there is nothing to build on there and the next step is to move to another line or another market.
2. Check the team pages. Each club's stat page shows every player's match-by-match numbers at the line you pick, with a hit rate and our projection. We used Man City's goals page, Man City's fouls page and RB Leipzig's shots page, and there are matching pages for RB Leipzig's fouls and Man City's shots.
3. Make sure they play. Every selection is in our predicted XI, and the predicted XI filter is switched on in every screenshot here. Haaland has played 11 of City's 14 games, missing the Carabao Cup tie on 28 October and the 5-1 win over AEK Athens on 20 October. Guéhi has also played 11, missing the AEK game and the Brighton defeat on 31 October. Orbán has played the full 90 in each of Leipzig's last ten games. Confirmed team sheets land about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place anything.
4. Price it in the bookmaker's own builder. A same-game price is not always the legs multiplied, so we put the three selections into bet365's bet builder and used the price it gave: 3.80, or 3/1.

Erling Haaland to score (1/2)

Haaland has scored in 9 of 11 games this season (82%), averaging 1.18 goals a game, and in four of his last five appearances, with 0, 1, 2, 2 and 1. Our model gives him a 61% chance of scoring on Wednesday and projects 0.93 goals.

He is City's striker and he is in our predicted XI, but he has played 11 of City's 14 games and sat out the Carabao Cup tie on 28 October and the win over AEK on 20 October, so the team sheet matters here. The Man City goals page and his player page have the rest.

Marc Guéhi to commit 1+ foul (4/7)

Guéhi has committed a foul in 7 of 11 games this season (64%), averaging 0.91, and in four of his last five appearances, with 0, 1, 2, 2 and 1. Our model gives him a 55% chance on Wednesday and projects 0.80 fouls.

He played the full 90 in four of those five games and 45 minutes in the other, and he is in our predicted XI, though he did not play against Brighton on 31 October. See the Man City fouls page and his player page.

Willi Orbán to have 1+ shot (4/6)

Orbán, a centre-back, has had a shot in 8 of 11 games this season (73%), averaging 1.18, and in four of his last five, with 1, 1, 0, 1 and 2. Our model is more cautious than his record, at 48% with a projection of 0.65 shots, which makes him the leg we are least sure of.

He has played the full 90 in each of Leipzig's last ten games and is in our predicted XI. He is the only Leipzig player on the slip, because the rest of their lines are priced too short next to their records. See the RB Leipzig shots page and his player page.

Other selections we looked at

These were on our list too, all in the predicted XI and all priced at bet365. They are the first place we would look if one of the three is ruled out, and each one changes the price when you swap it in.

Nusa has had 2+ shots in 9 of 11 games, but our model puts it at 42%, well below his record, so we left him out. Nkunku has fouled in 7 of 9 (78%), though he has not played in Leipzig's last two games. Dias at 2+ fouls has done it in 6 of 12 (50%) and our model is at 32%. Haaland at 2+ shots on target has done it in 7 of 11 (64%) and is the nearest alternative to his goal leg.

How the legs fit together

Haaland's goal is the City leg and Orbán's shot is the Leipzig one, so both can land in the same game, which suits a match where our model has both teams scoring at 66%. Guéhi's foul comes from City defending, so it is likelier the more Leipzig have the ball. Bookmakers price that overlap, which is why a same-game price can come out shorter than the legs multiplied.

We have not put a combined chance on the slip. The price is simply what bet365's builder offered for the three selections together.

The price

3/1 is bet365's own builder price for the three selections: 3.80 in decimals at 09:17 GMT on Wednesday 4 November. Multiplying the three prices (1/2, 4/7 and 4/6) gives 3.93, so the builder is about 3% shorter.

Prices move, so check the live price and the confirmed team sheet before you place it.

The RB Leipzig v Man City bet builder page has the live prices for every selection above. For the match itself, see our RB Leipzig v Man City predictions, and for more on both clubs, RB Leipzig, Man City and the Champions League table. Every priced prop in the game is on the player props sheet with projections and hit rates alongside, there are more slips on our bet builder tips page, and the competition-wide numbers are in the Champions League stats. Both sides' chance quality is on the RB Leipzig xG and Man City xG pages, with the competition's xG table alongside.

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