Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Manchester United fill the Premier League bottom three after ten games, on 7, 8 and 8 points. Judged on the chances created and allowed, the bottom three would be Palace, Coventry City and Hull City. So who is really in the relegation fight?
Just four points separate 13th from 20th. In August our model sent all three promoted clubs straight back down (our preview). None is in the zone: Hull City are 13th, Ipswich Town 14th and Coventry City 17th. Sunderland and United are down there on results, not on football.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate. We use them to separate the sides who have played badly from the sides who have been unlucky. Every figure comes from our Premier League stats, xG table and player ratings, league games only. The team-by-team lists are in The Premier League Season So Far.
After ten games, league only. Exp is expected points, Football is the place those points would give
| Club | Pts | Exp | Football |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 11 | 9.7 | =18th |
| Ipswich Town | 11 | 11.6 | 15th |
| Fulham | 10 | 15.1 | 7th |
| Nottingham Forest | 9 | 16.0 | 5th |
| Coventry City | 9 | 9.7 | =18th |
| Manchester United | 8 | 14.3 | 10th |
| Sunderland | 8 | 15.0 | 8th |
| Crystal Palace | 7 | 8.9 | 20th |
Crystal Palace are the only club in the bottom three on both lists. Coventry City and Hull City are level on 9.7 expected points, joint second-bottom, but 17th and 13th in the table. Sunderland are 19th and eighth on the football. Manchester United are 18th and tenth.
Crystal Palace are bottom because of the defence, and none of it is luck. They have conceded 24 goals, the most in the league, from chances worth 24.1. They face more shots (18.9 a game), more shots on target (6.2) and give away more corners (7.0) than anyone, and only Aston Villa let in as many big chances (3.6 a game).
They also make more tackles than any other side (21.0 a game). Anan Khalaili has made 29, second only to Xaver Schlager of Nottingham Forest (32). The run is the worry: four defeats in a row, and 13 goals against in the last five from chances worth 12.8. Yéremy Pino is their best-rated player (7.13) and Daichi Kamada has three assists.
League games only. Expected figures in brackets
| Sunderland | United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (expected) | 8 (15.8) | 14 (17.6) |
| Against (expected) | 17 (14.8) | 19 (14.9) |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Hit the woodwork | 6 | 8 |
| Place on the football | 8th | 10th |
Sunderland have scored eight goals in ten games, the fewest in the league, from chances worth 15.8. Granit Xhaka has created 20 chances for them without an assist, one of the creators with nothing to show, and is the tenth-highest-rated player in the division (7.38). They have also had three players sent off, level with Brentford for the most, but ended a run of seven games without a win by beating Chelsea 1-0 on Sunday.
Manchester United have taken more shots than anyone (19.3 a game) and hit the woodwork eight times, also the most. The defence is a different matter: no clean sheet in ten games, and opponents score with 16.1% of their shots, the highest rate in the league. On Sunday they drew 4-4 with Aston Villa, and our August forecast had them finishing fourth. Bruno Fernandes is the seventh-highest-rated player in the league (7.41).
Four clubs sit more than half a goal a game behind their chances: Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, United and Fulham, and all four are in the bottom six. In our testing across 1,245 fixtures, sides running behind by that margin then gained 0.8 percentage points on what our model rated them, which is noise. The football says they are better than their places. It does not promise a climb. More on Forest and Sunderland in the luck gap piece, and on United in the Carrick Mirage.
Aug is the finishing place in our preview, Now is the place after ten games
| Club | Aug | Now | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 20th | 13th | 11 |
| Ipswich Town | 19th | 14th | 11 |
| Coventry City | 18th | 17th | 9 |
| Sunderland | 17th | 19th | 8 |
| Manchester United | 4th | 18th | 8 |
In August our model gave Hull City a 92.5% chance of relegation, Ipswich Town 65.1% and Coventry City 60.9%. None is in the bottom three, though the football is less kind to two of them.
Hull City have the lowest possession (33.3%), the fewest passes (287.8 a game), the fewest shots (10.2) and shots on target (3.1), and the lowest expected goals in the division. Yet they are 13th and unbeaten at home, with one win and four draws. They have three clean sheets and the best-rated goalkeeper in the league, Konstantinos Tzolakis (7.33).
Their 11 points are 1.3 more than their chances were worth, and their goal difference runs 0.56 of a goal a game better than their chances say. That is past the half-goal line where, in our testing, flattered sides then won 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Hull are the only club in the bottom half beyond it.
Coventry City are one point clear of the zone on 9, with three wins, seven defeats and no draws. They create the fewest big chances in the league (1.4 a game), make the fewest tackles (11.6) and have conceded 19. Jack Rudoni has three goals and 17 chances created.
Ipswich Town have the best attack of the three: 15 goals and the fourth-best shot conversion (13.8%). Julio Enciso has taken 32 shots, third most in the league. Only they and United have yet to keep a clean sheet, and they have let in 20. On the football they are 15th, not bottom.
Ranked on chances conceded. Exp is expected goals against
| Club | Pos | Against | Exp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 20th | 24 | 24.1 |
| Aston Villa | 10th | 17 | 19.5 |
| Newcastle United | 12th | 16 | 18.4 |
| Ipswich Town | 14th | 20 | 18.1 |
| Coventry City | 17th | 19 | 16.3 |
Aston Villa and Newcastle United are 10th and 12th, but only Palace allow more chances than Villa, and only Palace and Villa more than Newcastle. Villa let in as many big chances as Palace (3.6 a game). Villa, Newcastle and Coventry each face 16.6 shots a game, second only to Palace. On expected points they are 16th and 17th.
What has kept them in mid-table is that they have conceded fewer than the chances say, by 2.5 goals for Villa and 2.4 for Newcastle. Villa are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). Newcastle have lost three of their last five.
The two highest-rated players in the bottom eight play for clubs in the bottom three: Bruno Fernandes of United and Granit Xhaka of Sunderland. Morgan Gibbs-White of Forest has created 24 chances, joint second most in the league, for one goal and three assists. The full list is on the player ratings page.
Players with at least five matches. Rank is in the whole league
| Player | Club | Rating | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Tzolakis | Hull City | 7.33 | 16 |
| Abdoul Ouattara | Ipswich Town | 7.02 | 78 |
| Alex Iwobi | Fulham | 7.22 | 33 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 7.28 | 21 |
| Brandon Thomas-Asante | Coventry City | 7.16 | 44 |
| Bruno Fernandes | Manchester United | 7.41 | 7 |
| Granit Xhaka | Sunderland | 7.38 | 10 |
| Yéremy Pino | Crystal Palace | 7.13 | 48 |
Yellows and fouls a game, red cards in total
| Club | Yellows | Reds | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 3.0 | 0 | 11.5 |
| Ipswich Town | 1.9 | 1 | 10.9 |
| Fulham | 1.9 | 1 | 10.4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2.4 | 0 | 13.8 |
| Coventry City | 1.1 | 1 | 10.7 |
| Manchester United | 2.2 | 1 | 11.8 |
| Sunderland | 2.0 | 3 | 11.6 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.5 | 2 | 10.2 |
Hull City collect more yellow cards than anyone (3.0 a game), while Coventry City collect the fewest (1.1). Matt Crooks of Hull has five yellows in six appearances and Matty Cash of Villa five in eight. Boubacar Kamara of Villa has committed 20 fouls, the most in the league, and been fouled 24 times. Caleb Yirenkyi of Coventry, at 20, has committed 19.
For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list, and the team pages show the rest: Hull yellow cards, Sunderland red cards, Villa fouls. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
Coventry City v Crystal Palace on Saturday 21 November is the first meeting of two of the bottom four. A Palace win would lift them above Coventry. A Coventry win would put them five points clear. Hull City, unbeaten at home, host Brighton, and Manchester United go to Liverpool.
Kick-off times UK
| Match | When |
|---|---|
| Man City v Fulham | Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 |
| Spurs v Ipswich | Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 |
| Coventry v Palace | Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 |
| Villa v Sunderland | Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 |
| Bournemouth v Forest | Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 |
| Newcastle v Arsenal | Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 |
| Hull v Brighton | Sun 22 Nov, 14:00 |
| Liverpool v Man Utd | Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 |
So the relegation fight on the football is Palace, Coventry and Hull, with Newcastle, Villa and Ipswich next. Sunderland and United are in it on points, not on play.
The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game, and the live relegation projections are on the outrights page.
Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Manchester United fill the Premier League bottom three after 10 games, on 7, 8 and 8 points. Coventry City are 17th on 9, one point clear. Just 4 points separate 13th from 20th, so the order can change in a single round.
Crystal Palace are bottom on expected points with 8.9 after 10 games, ahead of Coventry City and Hull City, level on 9.7. Sunderland, in the real bottom three, are eighth on expected points with 15.0, and Manchester United tenth with 14.3.
Crystal Palace have the worst defence in the Premier League: 24 goals conceded in 10 games, from chances worth 24.1 expected goals against. They face 18.9 shots a game, the most in the league, and have lost their last four matches.
None of Hull City, Ipswich Town or Coventry City is in the bottom three after 10 games, though our August model gave them 92.5%, 65.1% and 60.9% chances of relegation. They are 13th, 14th and 17th, and Hull and Coventry are joint second-bottom on expected points (9.7).