Are Arsenal the luckiest team in the Premier League?

Nine matches in, the Premier League table and the chances tell different stories. Arsenal lead the table on 24 points from chances worth 17.0 expected points, so they are 7.0 ahead of where their performances put them. Nottingham Forest are 19th on 6 points from chances worth 15.0, 9.0 behind. Brighton & Hove Albion have also scored 24 goals from chances worth 17.0 xG. So are Arsenal the luckiest team in the league? On expected points, yes, by 7.0, but their gap sits in a defence that has conceded the fewest goals and the least xG, not in finishing.

This is the Premier League xG table read for one question: which results are real, and which are borrowed? The figures are as they stood after the last game on 2 November 2026, and they will move.

The league's biggest gaps between points and xPts

Expected points, or xPts, turn the chances in each match into the points a side would take on average. Every shot is scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted (how xG is calculated), and the two sides' totals give the chance of a win, a draw and a defeat (how expected points are worked out). The gap between a club's points and its xPts is how far results have run from performances.

Arsenal have 24 points from 17.0 xPts, +7.0. Brighton & Hove Albion are next on +4.5, ahead of Manchester City on +3.6 and Chelsea on +3.2. At the other end Nottingham Forest have 6 points from 15.0 xPts, -9.0, and Sunderland are next on -7.6, ahead of Manchester United on -5.8 and Fulham on -4.9. Set that against the Premier League standings and the two orders barely agree.

The five biggest gaps on each side are above. The full expected points table has all 20 clubs, with home, away and last-five views.

Which Premier League team is the luckiest on expected points?

Arsenal, on 24 points from 17.0 xPts, are the luckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027 on this measure, 7.0 more than their chances deserved. Luck is a blunt word for some of it, and the numbers show where it sits.

Arsenal: 24 points from 17.0 xPts

Arsenal's gap does not come from finishing. They have scored 14 goals from 15.7 xG, 1.7 fewer than their chances were worth. It comes at the back: 5 conceded against 8.6 xGA, 3.6 fewer than the chances against them were worth. Their 8.6 xGA is also the lowest in the league, so this is a real defence that has had some help, not a side surviving on nothing.

The home and away views split it. At home, over four matches, Arsenal have 12 points from 9.9 xPts, with 9 goals from 8.9 xG and 2 conceded from 2.0 xGA: close to their chances. Away, over five, they have 12 points from 7.1 xPts (+4.9) and 3 conceded from 6.6 xGA. The cushion has been built on the road. Those views use four or five matches each, a smaller sample than the nine-match table, so they are never added to it.

Brighton & Hove Albion: 4.5 more than their chances deserved

Brighton & Hove Albion are 3rd on 19 points from 14.5 xPts. Their gap is attack. They have scored 24 goals from 17.0 xG, 7.0 more than the chances said, and conceded 7 from 13.6 xGA, 6.6 fewer. Only Manchester City have created more xG, 18.1 against 17.0, so this is a good attack finishing above its chances, not a poor one getting lucky. We covered the goals side of this after eight matches in our earlier look at Brighton and Forest in front of goal.

Which Premier League team is the unluckiest on expected points?

Nottingham Forest, with 6 points from 15.0 xPts, are the unluckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027 on this measure, 9.0 short of what their chances deserved, with Sunderland next on 7.6.

Nottingham Forest: 6 points from 15.0 xPts

Forest are 19th in the table and 3rd on expected points, the widest gap between those two lists in the league. The reason is in front of goal: 6 goals from 14.9 xG, 8.9 short, the biggest shortfall in the league. At the back they have conceded 12 from 10.4 xGA, 1.6 more than the chances against them, a small part of it. Their chances created (14.9) minus their chances conceded (10.4) is +4.5, the profile of a side that has been performing better than its points.

Sunderland: the next biggest shortfall at 7.6

Sunderland are 20th on 5 points from 12.6 xPts. They have scored 7 from 13.5 xG (-6.5) and conceded 17 from 14.1 xGA (+2.9), so both ends are against them. In the home view, over four matches, they have 1 goal from 5.2 xG and 4 points from 5.8 xPts.

Other sides whose chances have not turned into goals, on the nine-match table: Fulham (9 goals from 15.0 xG), Manchester United (10 from 14.4) and Liverpool (11 from 15.2). Forest and Sunderland sit apart because the shortfall has also cost them points.

Finishing luck or defensive luck: where the gap comes from

A points gap can start at either end of the pitch, so the table splits it into goals against xG and goals conceded against xGA, the xG of the chances the other side created. For goals conceded, a minus means fewer goals against than the chances suggest.

Brighton and Chelsea: scoring more than the chances say

Brighton & Hove Albion are +7.0 on goals against xG (24 from 17.0) and Chelsea next on +5.8 (19 from 13.2). Chelsea are 4th in the table but 11th on expected points, the biggest drop among the top four, and they have conceded 3.0 more than their xGA, so finishing is carrying them. The player xG table shows who is carrying those numbers.

Brentford and Brighton: conceding fewer than the chances say

Brighton have conceded 6.6 fewer than their xGA, the widest gap in the league, with Everton (-4.8) and Brentford (-4.5) next. Going the other way, AFC Bournemouth have conceded 3.4 more than the chances against them, with Manchester United and Chelsea 3.0 more and Sunderland 2.9 more.

The nine-match table is above. The home view, which is four or five matches per club, tells a sharper but smaller story, and is shown on its own:

Read those rows as home only. Brighton & Hove Albion have conceded 1 from 4.4 xGA at home and Brentford 3 from 6.7, while Manchester United have conceded 7 from 4.7 and Chelsea 8 from 5.7. At the other end, Liverpool have scored 4 from 7.6 xG at home and AFC Bournemouth 7 from 10.0.

Who would be top on expected points?

Manchester City would lead the Premier League on expected points in 2026/2027, with 17.4 xPts across nine matches, and Arsenal are next on 17.0. City are 2nd in the real table on 21 points; Arsenal are 1st on 24.

Manchester City: 17.4 xPts from 18.1 xG created and 9.8 conceded

City have created the most xG in the league, 18.1, which is 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5, and conceded 9.8. At the other end of creation, Coventry City have the least, 8.4, 0.9 a game.

Arsenal's defensive numbers: 8.6 xG conceded, the least in the league

Arsenal have conceded the least xG, 8.6, 1.0 a game against that same average, with AFC Bournemouth next on 9.6. Crystal Palace have conceded the most, 21.4, 2.4 a game.

Here is where the two lists disagree most, by position in the table against position on expected points. Ordered by xPts, ties broken on expected goal difference, as on the page. For comparison, see last season's xG table.

How much of this gap will last?

What the league averages say: 1.46 xG and 1.35 goals a game

Premier League teams have averaged 1.46 xG a game over the 90 matches played, and have scored 1.35 goals a game from it, down from 1.47 xG a game in 2025/2026. A side scoring far above its xG, as Brighton are with 24 from 17.0, is running well beyond a league that is scoring a little below its chances.

Home xG 1.59 against 1.34 away

Teams create more xG at home, 1.59 a game against 1.34 away, a home advantage of +0.25 against +0.32 last season. Home and away views split a club's season into samples of four and five matches, which is why a club can look very different in them.

None of this is a forecast. Nine matches is a small sample, and a gap this wide is a measure of how far results have run from chances, not a promise of what comes next. The numbers move after every game. To see where they point, use the team projections and the Premier League power rankings, and for how the rest of Europe's big five compare, our look at the finishers and the unlucky across five leagues.

For every club's numbers, with home, away and last-five views, see the xG and xPts for every Premier League side.