The table tells you who is winning. The Premier League xG table for 2026/2027 tells you who is winning on borrowed luck and who is being punished for chances that should have been goals. After eight matches each, the gaps are lopsided.
Brighton & Hove Albion have scored 23 goals from chances worth 16.1 xG, 6.9 more than the chances say. Nottingham Forest sit at the other end of the same scale with 6 goals from 13.8 xG, 7.8 fewer. Manchester City, meanwhile, have 21 points from performances worth 15.3 xPts.
All figures cover the 80 Premier League matches played in 2026/2027 at the time of writing, with each side on eight matches.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes. Every shot is scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted, so a team's xG is the number of goals an average finisher would have scored from the same chances. Here is how xG is calculated in full.
On that measure, Brighton & Hove Albion top the league for overperformance. They have 23 goals from 16.1 xG, a gap of 6.9 across eight matches. Chelsea are next on 6.3.
At the bottom of the scale, Nottingham Forest have 6 goals from 13.8 xG, a shortfall of 7.8. Sunderland are next on 5.4. The two ends of the table are almost mirror images, with Brighton 6.9 up and Forest 7.8 down.
The sides with the biggest gaps between goals and xG after eight matches each.
| Team | Goals | xG | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 23 | 16.1 | +6.9 |
| Chelsea | - | - | +6.3 |
| Nottingham Forest | 6 | 13.8 | -7.8 |
| Sunderland | - | - | -5.4 |
Goals are one view. Expected points are another. They come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Here is how expected points are worked out.
Manchester City are the luckiest side in the league on that measure. They have 21 points from performances worth 15.3 xPts, 5.7 more than their chances deserved. Arsenal are next on 4.7. You can see the points side of this in the actual Premier League standings.
Arsenal's case is different, though. They would be top of the league on expected points, with 16.3 xPts from 14.9 xG created and 6.9 conceded across eight matches. City are next on 15.3. Arsenal's lead is backed by the process as well as the results, which is not true of every side near the top.
City and Forest at either end of the points-luck scale, with Arsenal's expected points alongside.
| Team | Points | xPts | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 21 | 15.3 | +5.7 |
| Arsenal | - | 16.3 | - |
| Nottingham Forest | 6 | 13.4 | -7.4 |
Nottingham Forest have 6 points from performances worth 13.4 xPts. That is 7.4 short of what they deserved, the biggest shortfall in the Premier League. Sunderland are next on 5.4.
Set that beside the goals figure and the two shortfalls look like one problem. Forest are 7.8 goals short of their xG and 7.4 points short of their xPts. The chances are being created, but they are not going in.
Table 3 puts all the gaps side by side. For the complete set, with every team's goals, xG and expected points, the full table has all 20 sides.
Goals minus xG and points minus xPts for the sides named so far.
| Team | Goals minus xG | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | +6.9 | - |
| Chelsea | +6.3 | - |
| Manchester City | - | +5.7 |
| Arsenal | - | +4.7 |
| Sunderland | -5.4 | -5.4 |
| Nottingham Forest | -7.8 | -7.4 |
A finishing gap can mean two things. Either a side is scoring from ordinary chances, or it is scoring extra goals on top of a lot of good ones. Brighton are the second kind. They have created the most xG in the league, 16.1 from eight matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Manchester City are next on 16.0.
Coventry City sit at the other end. They have created the least xG, 7.6, which is 1.0 a game. Hull City are next on 8.6.
Defence tells the same kind of story. Crystal Palace have conceded the most xG, 17.4, or 2.2 a game, with Ipswich Town next on 15.8. Arsenal have conceded the least, 6.9 (0.9 a game), with AFC Bournemouth next on 8.6.
To see the table by team, use the full xG table. For the finishing breakdown by individual, the player-level xG page shows the goals each player has scored against the chances they have had.
Eight matches each. The competition average is 1.5 xG a game.
| Measure | Team | Total | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Most created | Brighton & Hove Albion | 16.1 | 2.0 |
| Least created | Coventry City | 7.6 | 1.0 |
| Most conceded | Crystal Palace | 17.4 | 2.2 |
| Least conceded | Arsenal | 6.9 | 0.9 |
Some context for reading the gaps. Premier League teams have averaged 1.46 xG a game over the 80 matches played in 2026/2027, and have scored 1.39 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.47 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Home sides create 1.58 xG a game against 1.34 away. That is a home advantage of +0.24, against +0.32 in 2025/2026. The edge is still there, but it has narrowed.
Compare it all with last season's xG numbers, or browse the wider Premier League team stats.
A +6.9 or -7.8 goals gap over eight matches is a statement about what has happened. It does not say what comes next. What the figures do offer is a view of performance that results alone do not, and expected points are the cleaner version of that view.
The reading is straightforward. Brighton have scored 6.9 more than their chances and have also created the most of them. Forest have scored 7.8 fewer and taken 7.4 fewer points than their xPts. City have 5.7 more points than their xPts, while Arsenal's lead is backed by the underlying numbers.
For more context, the Premier League power rankings and Premier League betting predictions pages carry further numbers on every side. Check where your team sits on the full xG table.
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Manchester City have been the luckiest side in 2026/2027, with 21 points from performances worth 15.3 xPts, 5.7 more than their chances deserved. Arsenal are next on 4.7, across eight matches each at the time of writing.
Nottingham Forest have been the unluckiest side in 2026/2027, with 6 points from performances worth 13.4 xPts, 7.4 short of what they deserved. Sunderland are next on 5.4, after eight matches each.
Brighton & Hove Albion are overperforming their xG the most, with 23 goals from chances worth 16.1 xG, a gap of 6.9 after eight matches. Chelsea are next on 6.3 at the time of writing.
Arsenal would be top on expected points in 2026/2027, with 16.3 xPts from 14.9 xG created and 6.9 conceded across eight matches. Manchester City are next on 15.3 at the time of writing.
Nottingham Forest are underperforming their xG the most, with 6 goals from chances worth 13.8 xG, a shortfall of 7.8 after eight matches. Sunderland are next on 5.4 at the time of writing.