Bet Builder Tips: 36 of 40 Legs Are 5-for-5, and That Tells You Little

We pulled the Statz Safer Slip, the bet builder theme built on players who've cleared the line in at least four of their last five games, for all ten Premier League matches from Saturday 31 October to Monday 2 November, as they stood on Wednesday 28 October. That's 40 legs. Thirty-six are 5-for-5, meaning the player cleared the line in each of their last five games, and the other four are 4-for-5.

So hit rate can't be what separates a good bet builder from a bad one. By the time a leg reaches a slip it has passed that test, and so has every leg on everyone else's. What's left is whether the legs belong in the same match, whether the players start and whether the referee helps. This piece shows how to build a bet builder from the stats by taking those in turn, with examples from Spurs v Palace, Liverpool v Arsenal and the rest of the round.

To start building straight away, the Bet Builder Tool finds the players, the ready-made slips are rebuilt for every covered match and today's bet builder tips list the day's selections.

Hit rate gets a leg in the door

Hit rate is the entry ticket. The Safer Slip only takes players at 80% or better, so a high figure on a leg tells you it got through and little else. The lines are low as well: 33 of the 40 legs are 1+ lines and seven are 2+. By stat there are 14 shots legs, 12 tackles, eight fouls and six shots on target, with no cards among them (the referee section picks those up). Each number is one player's record on their own, so none of it says how often all four legs land in the same match. The what is a bet builder guide explains how bookmakers price legs that move together.

Pick the stat that the player's job produces. The Premier League streaks board shows who is on a run for shots, shots on target, fouls and tackles, our bet builder stats guide sets out what each one counts, and the pages for shots on target, fouls and tackles rank the players.

Pick the match first, then the one story it tells

Start with the match and work down to the players. For each leg, ask what the match has to look like for it to land. If the answer is the same for every leg, they fit. If two legs need opposite pictures, they argue with each other.

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace is the clean case. The team rankings on the match page give the first read. The Statz model has Spurs on 1.84 goals to Palace's 1.08 and gives the home side a 55% chance of winning. Palace have conceded 19 goals in eight league games, 2.38 a game, the most in the division, and Spurs average 6.5 corners a game, also the most. The picture is Spurs with the ball.

Sandro Tonali has seven shots in his last five games and Mohammed Kudus has 11, and both need that picture. So does Axel Disasi's fouls line (nine in five), because a Palace defender fouls most when his side is defending a lot. Archie Gray's tackles (11 in five) need Palace to have the ball somewhere. Three legs agree and one hedges. The Spurs v Palace slip page shows the live version.

Liverpool v Arsenal is a different shape. It has the highest draw chance of the ten matches in the model (29%, with Arsenal the favourites on 42%) and the fewest projected goals, 1.08 for Liverpool and 1.33 for Arsenal. Arsenal have conceded five in eight league games, the fewest. A leg that needs goals is the wrong shape for that match, and legs built on volume fit better: Alexis Mac Allister has 16 shots in his last five games, Noni Madueke has 10 and Cody Gakpo has eight tackles. Alexander Isak's shot-on-target line is the one 4-for-5 on that slip, with a blank in one of the five.

Check the team sheet before the hit rate

The streaks board doesn't know who is starting. Take the twelve longest active runs on each match page: that's 120 across the round, and 29 belong to players who aren't in the predicted XI at the time of writing. On Chelsea v Man Utd, Hull v Ipswich and Newcastle v Everton it's five of the twelve. All 40 Safer Slip legs are on predicted starters.

At most UK books a leg is void if the player takes no part in the match and stands if they play any minutes, including off the bench, according to the rules note on the Statz bet builder page.

Some books void the whole bet builder when one leg is void and others re-price the rest, so read your bookmaker's terms. The worse case is the player who comes on for ten minutes, because the leg stays alive with little chance.

It's a week to check twice. Thirteen of the 20 sides have a Carabao Cup tie between 27 and 29 October, including Manchester City and Brighton on Wednesday 28 October, three days before they meet in the league on Saturday. The predicted XIs are forecasts until the teams are named about an hour before kick-off, so make the last look then.

The referee decides between fouls and cards

A referee's yellows and fouls don't move together. John Brooks, who has Newcastle v Everton on Monday, averages 5.4 yellow cards a game after five matches this season, the most of the ten. He also averages 19.8 fouls a game, the fewest. Craig Pawson has the busiest whistle at 27.25 fouls a game after four matches, with 5.25 yellows. Michael Oliver, who has Spurs v Palace, is on 2.83 yellows and 22.83 fouls after six.

A fouls leg and a cards leg answer to different referee numbers, so check the one that matches the leg.

The Safer Slip for Man City v Brighton has two fouls legs, Elliot Anderson (six fouls in his last five games) and Marc Guéhi (seven), in the match with the busiest whistle. The Newcastle v Everton slip has Nico González on 2+ fouls, with 16 in his last five, under the referee who whistles least and against an Everton side that commits 8.13 fouls a game, the fewest in the league. That's the leg we'd look at twice.

For bookings, Card Risk ranks the starters most likely to be booked in each match and lists the referee among the reasons. The Bookings Double and Bookings Value themes on the slips page cover cards, and our earlier look at Premier League fouls shows the same referee check at work.

Where the Statz bet builder tools fit

The Bet Builder Tool is where the legs come from. Pick a stat from ten, including shots, shots on target, fouls, tackles and yellow cards, set the line, the number of games and a hit-rate floor, and it lists the players who clear it, with their last five games on each card. The bet builder slips go a step further: every covered match gets ready-made slips by theme, from three to six legs, and any leg can be swapped. Today's bet builder tips collects the day's selections in one place.

If you want several matches in one bet instead, that's the acca. Our Saturday bet builders column shows the method on a full card, and the xG table, power rankings and player stats help with the match story.

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Build one live

The live Statz bet builder below shows the featured match's slip with each player's hit rate. Run the same three checks on it: the story, the team sheet and the whistle. The full fixture list has every match and the Premier League table shows where each side stands.

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