Manchester City host Brighton & Hove Albion at the Etihad Stadium in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:30 UK. Both clubs lost their last league game, City 2-1 at Villa on Saturday and Brighton 2-0 at Liverpool on Sunday, and City host Brighton again in the Premier League on Saturday 31 October.
Both clubs are likely to rotate. Our model makes City 53% to win in 90 minutes, Brighton 24% and the draw 23%, with 1.93 goals projected for City and 1.25 for Brighton. Those figures come from season-long numbers and assume each club's usual side, so a rotated tie is likelier to be closer and looser than they show. Last round's XIs are set out below.
Manchester City have won eight of their last ten in all competitions and lost two: a 4-2 home defeat to PSG in the Champions League on 14 October and the 2-1 loss at Villa on Saturday. In between came a 3-2 win over Ipswich in the league and a 5-1 win over AEK Athens in the Champions League, after a 3-0 win at Liverpool on 11 October.
Brighton & Hove Albion have won six of their last ten in all competitions, with two draws and two defeats. They won 2-0 at Sunderland on 10 October, beat Žalgiris 4-0 in the Europa Conference League and Palace 5-0 in the league, drew 0-0 at Jablonec in the Europa Conference League on 22 October and lost 2-0 at Liverpool on Sunday.
Our projection, which assumes the usual sides, has City on 16.45 shots, 5.79 of them on target, to Brighton's 11.57 and 4.08, and has Brighton committing 13.31 fouls and collecting 2.16 yellow cards to City's 10.09 and 1.48.
Manchester City's previous Carabao Cup tie is the guide to their side. On 17 September they beat Norwich City 5-0 in the third round with Gerónimo Rulli in goal and an XI of Rico Lewis, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Vitor Reis, Mateo Kovacic, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Allan, Rayan Cherki, Nico O'Reilly and Floyd Samba. That was ten changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 1-0 win at Manchester United on 13 September, with only Cherki keeping his place.
Two of that Norwich XI, Khusanov and Cherki, started Saturday's defeat at Villa, so a rotated side on Wednesday is likely to mix a couple of regulars with players from the wider squad. City's next two games after this are Brighton again in the Premier League at 3pm on Saturday 31 October and RB Leipzig away in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November.
Brighton's previous cup tie was a 3-2 win at Manchester United in the third round on 16 September, with Jason Steele in goal and an XI of Olivier Boscagli, Luka Vuskovic, Pascal Struijk, Jaouen Hadjam, Costinha, Pascal Groß, Chema Andrés, Matt O'Riley, Malick Yalcouyé and Charalampos Kostoulas. That was six changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 5-0 win at Coventry City on 13 September; Kostoulas, Boscagli, Yalcouyé, Groß and Vuskovic kept their place.
Five of that Manchester United XI, Kostoulas, Boscagli, Groß, Vuskovic and Andrés, started Sunday's defeat at Liverpool, so Brighton's changes last round were smaller than City's and a side of regulars and squad players is likely again. Their next two games are the trip to City on Saturday 31 October and Getafe away in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November.
The possible starting lineups further down already lean on last round's players: six of City's and six of Brighton's started the previous cup tie.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Lewis, Khusanov, Guéhi, O'Reilly; Bouaddi, Kovacic; McAidoo, Foden, Doku; Samba
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Steele; Hadjam, Dunk, Vuskovic, Costinha; Groß, Hinshelwood, Yalcouyé; Osman, Rutter, Gómez
Bookmakers have Manchester City at 1.67 with Coral to win, Brighton at 4.60 with Ladbrokes and the draw at 4.20 with bet365. Our model also has City ahead, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on both clubs' seasons, not the rotated sides we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 1.67 (Coral) | 53% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| Brighton win | 4.60 (Ladbrokes) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (Ladbrokes) | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (Midnite) | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 62% |
We predict 1-1 on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 10.5%, though we make City 53% to win in 90 minutes, with 2-1 and 2-0 to City the next likeliest scores. City keep a clean sheet in 29% of our simulations and Brighton in 15%. A tie level after 90 minutes goes to a penalty shoot-out, and with both clubs likely to rotate the real game could be looser than those figures suggest.