Frosinone welcome Lecce to the Stadio Benito Stirpe on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 5:30pm UK, with six places between them in the Serie A table. Frosinone are 6th on 14 points from eight games. Lecce are 12th on 9, and they have lost five of their eight.
Frosinone have scored 17 and conceded 13 in eight games, while Lecce have scored nine and conceded 14. Lecce have the lowest both-teams-to-score rate in the division, at 25%.
Frosinone have lost only twice all season, and they come in off a 4-4 draw at Atalanta on 25 October. Before that they beat Sassuolo 4-2 at home, and lost 3-0 at Napoli on 10 October. In September they beat Como 2-0 and drew 1-1 at Genoa.
They average 2.13 goals a game, the 4th most in the league, and they have the 3rd most shots on target at 6.13 a game. They concede 1.63 a game, the 10th most, though they have still kept a clean sheet in a quarter of their matches, the 7th highest rate. They also commit the most fouls in the league, 15.38 a game.
Lecce have lost six of their last ten. They lost 2-0 at home to Juventus last time out, which followed a 3-0 win at Udinese, a 1-2 home defeat to Bologna, a 3-0 loss at AC Milan and a 3-2 win over Monza. They have not won two games in a row in that spell.
They score 1.13 a game, the 8th fewest, and concede 1.75, the 8th most.
Frosinone possible starting lineup:
Palmisani; Oyono, Monterisi, Bracaglia, Calvani; Calò, Masini, Schmid; Ghedjemis, Kvernadze, Raimondo
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Falcone; Veiga, Siebert, Ndaba, Gallo; Maleh, Kaba, Ngom; Fatah, N’Dri, Geubbels
Giorgi Kvernadze has had two or more shots in each of Frosinone's eight league games, averaging three a game, and he is 1.20 at bet365 to make it nine. Giacomo Calò has done the same in five straight games and averages 3.2, with 1.73 at bet365 for two or more shots again.
Antonio Raimondo has committed a foul in each of Frosinone's eight league games and averages 1.9, and he is 1.18 at Midnite for another. His team-mate Farès Ghedjemis has had a shot in six in a row at 2.8 a game, and there is 1.53 at bet365 on him making a tackle, which he has done in four of his last five.
For Lecce, Amar Fatah has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.08 at bet365 to have another. Danilo Veiga has fouled in four of his last five and is 1.22 at Midnite to do it again.
We back Frosinone, who are 1.70 at Ladbrokes, and we make them 53% to win, well clear of Lecce at 24%. Lecce are 5.00 at bet365 and the draw is 4.20 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Frosinone win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Lecce win | 5.00 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 64% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Frosinone clear favourites to win, with 2-1 the next most likely scoreline. A draw is in play, but the home side's 2.01 projected goals to Lecce's 1.30 point to the win. We give both teams a 64% chance to score and over 2.5 goals the same 64%, even though only a quarter of Lecce's league games have seen both sides score.