Hammarby host Sirius at the Tele2 Arena on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 17:30 UK, in a meeting of the top two in Allsvenskan. Sirius lead with 55 points from 25 games, Hammarby sit 2nd on 49, and the visitors have the league's best attack against the home side's best defence.
Hammarby have conceded 21 goals in 25 matches and have kept a clean sheet in 44% of them, the 2nd highest rate in the division. Sirius have scored 56, more than anyone. Our model leans towards the side playing at home.
Hammarby come in on a good run: they've won four of their last five in the league, most recently 2-0 at Mjällby on 25 October and 1-0 at Halmstad a week earlier. The one defeat in that spell was a 1-0 home loss to Djurgården. They've won 15 of 25 overall, scoring 52 and conceding 21.
Hammarby create the most shots on target in the league at 7.68 per game, win the most corners at 6.76 and concede the fewest goals, 0.84 per game. They score 2.08 per game, the 2nd most.
Sirius have not won in their last two games. They lost 2-1 at home to AIK on 24 October and drew 2-2 with Elfsborg the week before, after winning the two games before that, 1-0 at GAIS and 2-1 at Örgryte. They've won 17 of 25 and still top the table by six points.
Sirius score 2.24 a game, the most in the division, and 72% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate in the league. Both teams have scored in 60% of them, the 4th highest. At the back they concede 1.28 per game, the 6th fewest, so there is a way in for Hammarby. Their 5.52 shots on target per game and 5.96 corners are both the 3rd most in the league.
Hammarby possible starting lineup:
Hahn; Skoglund, Winther, Tekie, Fofana; Abraham, Karlsson, Persson, Adjei; Lind, Madjed
Sirius possible starting lineup:
Celic; Soumah, Anker, Castegren, Lindberg; Persson, Heier, Krusnell; Bjerkebo, Svensson, Andersson
Paulos Abraham has had a shot in all 25 of Hammarby's games this season, averaging 2.9 a match. He is 1.01 at midnite to make it 26.
Victor Lind has taken at least one shot in 15 straight games, averaging 3.6 a game across the run. He has also made a tackle in 15 in a row and recorded a foul in five straight.
Montader Madjed has had two or more shots in eight straight games, averaging four a game, and is 1.05 at midnite to go again.
For Sirius, Oscar Krusnell has made a tackle in 11 consecutive games at 3.4 a match, and Victor Svensson has had a shot in six straight at 1.30 with midnite.
We back Hammarby to win at 1.50 with Ladbrokes. The draw is 4.33 at midnite and Sirius are 5.75 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.60 at Ladbrokes, and over 2.5 goals is 1.48 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Hammarby win | 1.50 (Ladbrokes) | 59% |
| Draw | 4.33 (midnite) | 22% |
| Sirius win | 5.75 (bet365) | 19% |
| Both teams to score | 1.60 (Ladbrokes) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (bet365) | 58% |
Our model projects 1.99 goals for Hammarby and 1.04 for Sirius, and we predict a 1-1 draw, the single likeliest scoreline at 10.5%. A draw is in play, though we still make Hammarby the likelier winners at 59%. 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.57%) are both within a point of the top scoreline, so a home win is very much alive. The model has Hammarby keeping a clean sheet 35% of the time, and puts the shot and corner numbers firmly on their side, at 19.7 shots and 6.6 corners against 10.6 and 3.8 for Sirius.
Abraham, Lind and Madjed all arrive with long shooting runs, and Hammarby's projected 6.75 shots on target is nearly double Sirius's 3.65.