Kalmar host GAIS at Guldfågeln Arena on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 18:00 UK. GAIS sit 11th on 31 points, Kalmar 13th on 22 from 25 games.
Kalmar have lost 15 of those 25 and shipped 41 goals, while GAIS have conceded just 26. Our model finds very little between them.
Kalmar's run is grim. They have lost eight of their last ten, and the latest was a 3-0 home defeat to Bromma on 24 October. The one bright spot is a 2-1 win at Degerfors five days earlier, their only victory in that stretch. Before that came a 1-0 loss at Malmö FF and a 5-0 home hammering by Häcken.
Kalmar average 0.92 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and concede 1.64, the 8th most. They have kept a clean sheet in only 12% of their games, the 5th lowest rate in the division. Their shots on target come in at 3.96 a game, the 5th fewest. They collect 0.92 cards a game, the fewest in the league.
GAIS have won one of their last five. They played out a 1-1 draw at home to IFK Göteborg on 25 October, after a 4-2 defeat at Örgryte and a 1-0 home loss to Sirius. Their one win in that spell was a 3-0 win at Mjällby on 20 September. Their strength is at the back. They concede 1.04 goals a game, the 4th fewest, and keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, the 4th highest rate in the league. Both teams have scored in only 36% of their matches and 36% have gone over 2.5 goals, the lowest rate in the league for each.
GAIS are a physical side. They pick up 14.04 fouls a game, the 2nd most, and 2.24 cards, also the 2nd most, while their shots on target average of 4.84 is the 6th most.
The Allsvenskan table has GAIS nine points clear of Kalmar, with eight wins to six and five fewer defeats.
Kalmar possible starting lineup:
Brolin; Larsson, Löfgren, Tyren, Söderbäck; Gustafsson, Magashy, Gojani, Sagoe Jr; Ylitolva, Sætra
GAIS possible starting lineup:
Krasniqi; de Brienne, Wendin Thomasson, Wängberg, Sletsjøe; Frej, Jørgensen, Andersson, Vasic; Beckman, Gravius
Nikola Vasic is a GAIS striker who has had at least one shot in 12 straight games, averaging 2.7 a match, and he is 1.04 at midnite to extend that run.
A. Magashy has recorded a foul in 15 consecutive games, at 1.6 a game. He is 1.15 at midnite to make it 16. His team-mate Victor Larsson has recorded a foul in 12 in a row, averaging 1.9, and is 1.25 at midnite.
Marius Söderbäck has had a shot in seven consecutive games at 2.3 a match, and he is 1.05 at midnite.
For GAIS, Filip Beckman has recorded a foul in six straight games at 1.3 a game and is 1.44 at midnite. In midfield, R. Gojani has made a tackle in ten straight games for Kalmar, averaging 1.9.
Our model leans to GAIS, who are 3.00 at bet365 to win, but only slightly. Kalmar are 2.30 and the draw 3.30. For the goals markets, our model puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Kalmar to win | 2.30 (bet365) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.30 (bet365) | 28% |
| GAIS to win | 3.00 (bet365) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 (bet365) | 48% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make GAIS slightly more likely to win. We project 1.27 goals for Kalmar and 1.33 for GAIS, and give Kalmar a 26% chance of a clean sheet and GAIS 28%.
GAIS are the 2nd-most-carded side in the league and Kalmar the least carded. We project 2.07 yellow cards for GAIS against 1.14 for Kalmar, and 4.38 shots on target against 3.98.