Vancouver Whitecaps sit 1st in the Western Conference and host San Diego at Vancouver Stadium on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 02:30 UK. The Whitecaps have 55 points from 31 games, and San Diego, 12th in the Western Conference on 35, arrive having drawn four of their last five. Vancouver have conceded the 2nd fewest goals per game in MLS, while San Diego have conceded the 7th most.
Vancouver have lost two of their last five, so the Whitecaps are not flying. Even so, they are 20 points clear of San Diego in the Western Conference, and our model leans heavily towards the home team.
Vancouver have won 16 of 31, drawn 7 and lost 8, scoring 63 and conceding 32. That makes them the 4th-highest scorers per game, at 2.03, and the 2nd-best defence, at 1.03 conceded. They have kept a clean sheet in 39% of games, the 3rd highest rate in MLS.
Their recent run is less tidy. They lost 1-0 at Colorado on 25 October, after a 2-1 win at Austin, a 0-0 draw at St. Louis, a 1-1 draw at LAFC and a 3-1 defeat at Chicago Fire. All five of those games were away from home, and they are back at Vancouver Stadium now.
San Diego have won 8, drawn 11 and lost 12, with 55 goals for and 58 against. They have drawn four of their last five, including the last three: 2-2 with Seattle, 2-2 at LA Galaxy, 3-3 with Houston and 3-3 at Austin, with a 4-1 defeat at New York RB in between. Those are lively scorelines, and San Diego have conceded 1.87 a game, the 7th most in MLS. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of their matches, the 5th highest rate.
Vancouver's shots on target average 5.74, the 3rd most in MLS, against San Diego's 4.58, the 8th fewest. The home side also get plenty of corners, 5.97 a game, the 3rd most.
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Takaoka; Ocampo, Laborda, Blackmon, Johnson; Cubas, Larraz; Sabbi, Gauld, Caicedo; White
San Diego possible starting lineup:
Sisniega; Verhoeven, McVey, Duah, Sargeant; Godoy, Tverskov; Pirani, Dreyer, Achouri; Bakambu
Andrés Cubas has made at least one tackle in 25 straight games, averaging 4.4 a game from midfield. Oliver Larraz is on 17 straight games with a tackle, and Tate Johnson on 14.
For San Diego, Anders Dreyer has had a shot on target in six straight games and at least two shots in each of those six, averaging 3.3 a game. He is 1.44 with bet365 for a shot on target and 1.29 with bet365 for two or more shots.
Cédric Bakambu has had two or more shots in five straight games, with 13 shots in that spell, and is 1.33 with midnite for the same again.
Back at the Whitecaps' end, Édier Ocampo has committed a foul in eight consecutive games, averaging 2 a match, and is 1.22 with midnite to make it nine.
We back Vancouver Whitecaps to win, and the best price on them is 1.4 with Ladbrokes. We give them a 64% chance, with the draw at 20% and San Diego at 16%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver win | 1.4 (Ladbrokes) | 64% |
| Draw | 5.5 (bet365) | 20% |
| San Diego win | 6.25 (midnite) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.5 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 (Ladbrokes) | 68% |
We project 2.39 goals for Vancouver and 1.13 for San Diego, with a 62% chance that both sides score. The likeliest single scoreline is 2-1, and our prediction is Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 San Diego, with 1-1 and 2-0 close behind. We give the draw a 20% chance, against 64% for a Whitecaps win.
For a bet builder, Dreyer for a shot on target is 1.44 with bet365, Bakambu for two or more shots is 1.33 with midnite, Ocampo for a foul is 1.22 with midnite and Bruno Caicedo for a shot on target is 1.44 with bet365. Caicedo has had a shot on target in four of his last five.