Örgryte welcome Mjällby to Gamla Ullevi on Thursday 29 October, kick-off 18:00 UK, with both clubs in the lower half of the Allsvenskan. The hosts are 15th of 16 on 19 points, the visitors 12th on 23, and the gap between them is four points. Örgryte have shipped goals all season, Mjällby have struggled to score, and our model leans towards the away side.
Örgryte have won one of their last five. They lost 4-1 at Malmö FF and 2-1 at home to Sirius, were beaten 3-0 by Häcken, then won 4-2 at home to GAIS. Last time out they drew 2-2 at Djurgården. Four wins all season and 14 defeats leave them 15th in the table, with 31 scored and 56 conceded.
Örgryte's goals against works out at 2.24 a game, the most in the division. At the other end they have the fewest corners in the league, 3.68 a game, and the 2nd fewest shots on target at 3.64. They do get involved in goals, though: both teams have scored in 60% of their matches, the 4th highest rate in the league, and the same share have gone over 2.5 goals.
Mjällby have played five games since 10 October, two of them in Europe. They drew 1-1 at Iberia in the Europa Conference League on 22 October, four days after a 1-0 loss at Västerås SK, and on Sunday they lost 2-0 at home to Hammarby. Before that came a 2-0 win over Escaldes and a 1-1 draw with Degerfors. They are on 23 points from 25, with 28 scored and 42 conceded.
Goals have been hard to come by for them, at 1.12 a game, the 4th fewest in the league. They are among the most-penalised sides, though: 13.8 fouls a game is the 3rd most in the division, and their 2.12 cards a game is the 4th most. Their shots on target come to 4.76 a game, the 8th fewest in the league.
Örgryte possible starting lineup:
Gustafsson; Parker, Styffe, Dyrestam, Lagerlund; Vindehall, Paulson, Parker-Price; Laturnus, Sana, Andersson
Mjällby possible starting lineup:
Lundin; Miettinen, Pettersson, Iqbal; Granath, Enggård, Nielsen, Gustavsson; Gustafson, Bergström, Kjær
Benjamin Laturnus is an Örgryte midfielder who has made at least one tackle in 24 straight games, averaging 3.4 across the run. He has also recorded a foul in four in a row, which midnite price at 1.20.
On the Mjällby side, Viktor Gustafson has recorded a foul in five straight games at 2.6 a match, priced at 1.20 at midnite. Winger M. Nielsen has recorded a foul in four in a row and is 1.30 at midnite.
We back Mjällby to win, with bet365 offering 2.25 on the away side. Our model gives them a 43% chance, against 32% for Örgryte and 25% for the draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Örgryte win | 2.85 (bet365) | 32% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 25% |
| Mjällby win | 2.25 (bet365) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (midnite) | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 (bet365) | 58% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the single likeliest score, though we make Mjällby the more likely winner, and 1-2 is next on the list. Örgryte's record of conceding more than two a game makes goals at both ends a strong possibility: the model puts both teams scoring at 61% and expects 1.39 goals from the hosts and 1.64 from the visitors. We project 5.19 shots on target for Mjällby against 4.37 for Örgryte, and 5.00 corners against 4.33.