Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

Orlando are 2-3 across their first five games, with a run of W L W L L. The scores swing hard. The Magic lost 99-129 at Toronto, then beat the Raptors 121-114 in the return game two days later. They also won 111-102 at New York. At home they have lost both games: 93-115 to Minnesota and 125-132 to Atlanta. They average 109.8 points for and concede 118.4, and that defensive number is the one to keep in mind tonight.

Washington are 3-3 across six games, with a run of W L L W L W. Their best result was a 95-79 home win over Charlotte, a game that held the opponent to 79. They also beat Chicago 124-120 on the road and Milwaukee 128-116 at home. The losses came at Cleveland (111-121), at Charlotte (103-110) and at home to Toronto (102-112). They average 110.5 points for and concede 109.7. This is a road game for them, and their defensive numbers are better than Orlando's so far.

Orlando are short-handed. Paolo Banchero is out with a right high ankle sprain, with a return date of 22 November. His absence pushes more of the offence onto Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane, and it opens minutes for Tristan Da Silva. Jalen Suggs is out with a right knee bone bruise and is listed to return on 10 November. That thins the backcourt and should lift the workload for Anthony Black.

Jonathan Isaac is out with a left knee injury, also listed for 10 November, though the reporting calls him week-to-week with no firm timetable. Noah Penda is out with a partially torn hamstring and Izaiyah Nelson is out recovering from ankle surgery. Both are listed to return on 18 November. Nelson is on a two-way deal, so his absence matters little to the rotation.

Washington have three players out. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a hip impingement, and the latest report says he will be re-evaluated, so Deandre Ayton has the backup centre role to himself. Jamir Watkins is out after surgery for a torn ACL, a two-way player with a listed return of 2 April. Justin Champagnie is out with a fractured foot and is not expected back until around the All-Star break in February. Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington are the players asked to cover his minutes on the wing.

The model takes the Orlando Magic. It gives them a 67% win probability and a projected score of 119.6 to 113.6 over the Wizards. That backs a model line of Orlando -6.1, with the Wizards at +6.1, and a model total of 233.2.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model sees value. Check the NBA odds page once prices go up. Compare the posted spread with -6.1 and the posted total with 233.2 before you act on this. We will not lean over or under without a number to measure against.

The case for Orlando is that Washington have the thinner scoring list on the injury report and a road game ahead. The case against is a Magic defence that has conceded 118.4 per game, and five players out.

Statz pick: Orlando Magic to win, model line -6.1, 67% win probability, model total 233.2.

Lines move before tip, especially with injury news this heavy, so recheck the team news before you decide. See the full preview for the model, form and odds modules.