Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
Mon, Nov 27:00 PMETCleveland
Cleveland CavaliersCavaliers
OKC2.53CLE1.65via Polymarket

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

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OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 52% chance, against 48% for the Cleveland Cavaliers. See the full projection →

52%
OKC to win
Polymarket2.53

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 52% to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday 2 November, with a model line of -0.8 and a projected total of 229.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Chet Holmgren, out with a patellar tendon tear.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Cleveland Cavaliers in Cleveland on Monday 2 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder the favourite at 52%, a model line of -0.8. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a line, so there is no spread or total to measure the model against. This is a close game on paper, and the Thunder carry a heavy injury list into it.

How the teams arrive

Cleveland are 4-2 across their six games this season and have scored freely. They average 121.0 points for and 116.0 against. The sequence reads win, loss, win, win, win, loss, most recent first. The standout score is a 136-111 win at Milwaukee on the road. They also beat Minnesota 127-125 at home and Brooklyn 125-121, so the margins have been thin at times. The two losses came at Atlanta (111-114) and Philadelphia (106-114). Cleveland are at home tonight.

Oklahoma City are also 4-2, but the shape of the run is different. They won their first four, including 116-104 at San Antonio, 96-84 against Denver and 125-114 against Phoenix. Then came two heavy road losses: 96-120 at Dallas and 98-119 at Houston. Over six games they average 106.5 points for and 107.0 against, a low-scoring profile next to Cleveland's. The Thunder are the away side here, and they arrive on the back of their two worst performances of the season.

Team news and lineups

Cleveland have nobody on the injury report. That gives them a settled rotation and full minutes for their main players.

Oklahoma City are in a very different place. Chet Holmgren is out after treatment on a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks. That removes their key frontcourt piece. Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams and Aday Mara are the candidates for the extra big-man minutes.

Two more long-term absences hit the backcourt and wings. Jalen Williams had surgery on a fractured left fibula and ankle ligaments and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season. Cason Wallace had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder and is also due a re-evaluation before the end of the regular season. With both out, Jared McCain is expected to see increased minutes.

Alex Caruso is out with an ankle sprain, and the reports suggest the absence could run beyond one game. That leaves the Thunder short on rotation wings. Thomas Sorber (knee) and Nikola Topic (back) are also out, both week-to-week.

The effect is simple. The Thunder have thin depth at guard, wing and big man all at once, and the starters will carry more of the load. The model still has them ahead, which says plenty about how it rates their top end.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is projected for 22.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He is Cleveland's top scorer in the model, and the home side's offence runs through him.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 18.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 7.1 assists, with 3.3 three-pointers made. He is the playmaker who sets up the Cavaliers' frontcourt, and his assist number is the highest on either roster in the projection.

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is projected for 17.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. With Holmgren out, Mobley faces a Thunder frontcourt with less size and fewer options, which makes his rebounding and inside scoring matter.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 34.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists. That scoring line is far above anyone else in the game. With so many teammates out, the Thunder need him to produce on both ends.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 16.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He is the second creator behind Gilgeous-Alexander, and the missing guards raise his role.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 13.8 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists, with 2.9 three-pointers made. The injury reports name him as a beneficiary of the absences, and his shooting gives the Thunder spacing they need.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder. It gives them 52% to win, a model line of -0.8, and a projected score of 115.3 to 114.4 over the Cavaliers. That is a narrow edge. The projected margin is under a point, and the Thunder's injury list is long.

There is no comparison to make against the market. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so the market side is missing. The model total is 229.7, but without a posted total there is no lean to state. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with the model line of -0.8 and the model total of 229.7.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder, model line -0.8, 52% win probability, model total 229.7.

Lines move before tip, and injury news can shift the projection with them.

OKC @ CLE questions

Who does the Statz model favour, Thunder or Cavaliers?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 52%, which leaves the Cleveland Cavaliers at 48%. The model line is Thunder -0.8, a very narrow edge. Both sides are close in the projection even with the Thunder's long injury list.
What is the model total for Thunder vs Cavaliers?
The model projects a total of 229.7 points. It has the Thunder scoring 115.3 and the Cavaliers 114.4. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game as of the latest data. The model line is Thunder -0.8, but without a market line there is no model-versus-market comparison to make yet.
Which Thunder players are out against Cleveland?
Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic and Alex Caruso are all listed as out. Holmgren will miss at least 8-10 weeks with a patellar tendon tear. Cleveland have nobody on their injury report.
Who is projected to score the most in this game?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tops the projection at 34.0 points, with 4.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists. Donovan Mitchell leads Cleveland at 22.5 points, with 4.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists, and James Harden is projected for 7.1 assists.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Oklahoma City Thunder or Cleveland Cavaliers?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 52% win probability, leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers at 48%. Over their last five games the Cleveland Cavaliers are 4-1 and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers?

For Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers, the model projects Donovan Mitchell for 22.5 points and James Harden for 18.6 points for the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the Oklahoma City Thunder it projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 34.0 points and Ajay Mitchell for 16.4 points.