LA Clippers vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 1

The Warriors sit at 3-3 after six games this season, and the run reads W W W L L L from the latest result back. They have come out of a rough start with three straight wins: 112-95 at home to the Lakers, 119-114 at Minnesota and a 134-114 win at Denver. The early losses were harder, including 105-127 at the Lakers and 122-131 at Phoenix. They average 116.7 points for and concede 115.3, so games involving them have been open.

The Clippers arrive at 1-4 and have lost four in a row. Their one win was 121-96 at home to Sacramento. Since then it has been 117-125 at the Lakers, 101-108 at Oklahoma City, 87-103 at home to the Lakers and 101-127 at Minnesota. They average 105.4 points for and give up 111.8. That is a team that has struggled to score and has leaked points on the road, and this is another road game.

Golden State is without three players. Jimmy Butler is out while he recovers from a torn right ACL, with a return looking like January or February. Moses Moody is out after rupturing a patellar tendon, and a December or January return is the hope. Between them they leave the wing rotation thin, so the minutes go to the younger forwards and guards who are already in the mix. Kristaps Porzingis is also out, away from the team indefinitely, and Golden State is not expecting him back soon. None of that is new to this group, which is why the model still leans home.

The Clippers have the longer list. Bradley Beal is out with knee inflammation. Max Strus is out with a partially torn plantar fascia, and Brandon Ingram is out with a partially torn Achilles. Yanic Konan Niederhauser is out with a foot injury, and Jordan Miller is out after shoulder surgery. Several of these have a return date of 8 November, so this game falls just before a possible return of key pieces. The practical effect is a scoring shortfall on the wing and heavier minutes for the younger players. That fits the 105.4 points a game they have managed so far.

The model takes the Golden State Warriors. It gives them 59% to win, against 41% for the LA Clippers, and projects a 114.6 to 111.4 score. That is a model line of -3.2 for Golden State and +3.2 for the Clippers. The model total is 225.9.

There is no market line to compare with. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so the market side of the comparison is missing and we cannot say whether the model finds an edge. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear. The total lean waits on the same thing: 225.9 is our number, and it needs a posted total to mean anything.

The case for Golden State is simple. They are on a three-game win streak at home, and the Clippers have lost four straight while scoring 105.4 a game. The risk is that the Warriors have conceded 115.3 a game, so the Clippers can stay close.

Statz pick: Golden State Warriors, model line -3.2, 59% win probability, model total 225.9.

Lines move before tip, so check the number before you act on this.