Who does the model favour, Timberwolves or Spurs?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 73% to win. The Minnesota Timberwolves are given 28%. The projected score is 118.6 for the Spurs and 110.5 for the Timberwolves.

What is the model line for Timberwolves at Spurs?

The model line is Spurs -8.1 and Timberwolves +8.1. That comes from a projected home margin of 8.1 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare it with.

What is the projected total for this game?

The model projects a total of 229.2 points, with the Spurs on 118.6 and the Timberwolves on 110.5. No bookmaker total has been posted yet, so there is no over or under lean to give.

Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?

No. Anthony Edwards is out after a right knee arthroscopy. He averaged 33.3 points across four appearances this season. The team has given no timetable, and earlier reporting says he could miss up to two months.

TimberwolvesMinnesota Timberwolves

Sat, Oct 318:00 PMETSan Antonio

SpursSan Antonio Spurs

MIN5.13SAS1.24via Polymarket

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 31

By Statz NBA · Published 30 Oct 2026, 8:42 AM ET

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 73% chance, against 27% for the Minnesota Timberwolves. See the full projection →

73%

SAS to win

1.24

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 73% to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, with a model line of -8.1 and a projected total of 229.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Anthony Edwards, out after knee surgery.

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday 31 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Spurs the favourite at 73% and sets the line at -8.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

The Spurs are 3-2 over their last five, with a sequence of W W W L L. They have won three straight. They beat the Utah side 117-111 on the road, then crushed Sacramento 130-103 at home, and added a 122-106 win at Dallas. The two losses came earlier, 110-114 to Houston and 104-116 to Oklahoma City, both at home. They average 116.6 points for and 110.0 against.

The Timberwolves are also 3-2 over five, but the run points the other way: L L W W W. They lost 114-119 to Golden State at home and 125-127 at Cleveland, both by a thin margin. Before that came wins of 117-94 over Toronto, 115-93 at Orlando and 131-106 at Miami. They average 120.4 points for and 107.8 against, so the defence has been solid and the scoring strong. This is a road game for them.

Team news and lineups

The biggest news is in Minnesota. Anthony Edwards is out after a right knee arthroscopy. He was averaging 33.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals across four appearances. The team has given no timetable, though earlier reporting says he could miss up to two months. That removes the engine of the offence and shifts usage onto the other guards and wings.

Donte DiVincenzo is also out, recovering from Achilles surgery, with no timetable set. That thins the Minnesota guard group further.

San Antonio has two players out. Jayden Quaintance has not been cleared for basketball activities, and the Spurs are expected to be careful with him. Tobias Harris is out with a calf issue and is said to be close to day-to-day. His absence is a depth issue, not a star-level loss.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 25.6 points, 12.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He is the centre of the model's case for the Spurs, and Minnesota has no obvious answer to his scoring and rim work.

De'Aaron Fox is projected for 16.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists. His pace and creation matter against a Minnesota side missing its top scorer.

Stephon Castle is projected for 16.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.1 assists. That is a heavy all-round line, and it makes him a playmaker to track.

LaMelo Ball leads the Minnesota projection with 19.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.7 assists, plus 4.1 threes. With Edwards out, he is the main source of shot creation.

Jaden McDaniels is projected for 15.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists. His defensive work on the Spurs' wings is as important as his scoring.

Rudy Gobert is projected for 10.1 points and 11.9 rebounds. His job is to contest the paint and win the glass against Wembanyama.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Spurs. It gives them 73% to win, with a projected score of 118.6 to 110.5 and a model line of -8.1. The projected total is 229.2.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so the model-versus-market check cannot be made until the market is posted. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear. Without a market total, there is no total lean to offer.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs, model line -8.1, 73% win probability.

Lines move before tip, and the Edwards news may shift the number once it is posted. Our full preview keeps the latest model figures.

MIN @ SAS questions

Who does the model favour, Timberwolves or Spurs?: The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 73% to win. The Minnesota Timberwolves are given 28%. The projected score is 118.6 for the Spurs and 110.5 for the Timberwolves.
What is the model line for Timberwolves at Spurs?: The model line is Spurs -8.1 and Timberwolves +8.1. That comes from a projected home margin of 8.1 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare it with.
What is the projected total for this game?: The model projects a total of 229.2 points, with the Spurs on 118.6 and the Timberwolves on 110.5. No bookmaker total has been posted yet, so there is no over or under lean to give.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?: No. Anthony Edwards is out after a right knee arthroscopy. He averaged 33.3 points across four appearances this season. The team has given no timetable, and earlier reporting says he could miss up to two months.
Who is injured for the Spurs?: Jayden Quaintance and Tobias Harris are both listed as out. Quaintance has not been cleared for basketball activities. Harris has a calf issue and is said to be close to day-to-day.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Minnesota Timberwolves or San Antonio Spurs?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 73% win probability, leaving the Minnesota Timberwolves at 27%. Over their last five games the San Antonio Spurs are 3-2 and the Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs?

No spread or total is posted yet for Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs?

For Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, the model projects Victor Wembanyama for 25.6 points and De'Aaron Fox for 16.8 points for the San Antonio Spurs. For the Minnesota Timberwolves it projects LaMelo Ball for 19.4 points and Jaden McDaniels for 15.7 points.