Portland Trail BlazersTrail Blazers
Sat, Oct 313:00 PMETUtah
Utah JazzJazz
POR1.38UTA3.64via Polymarket

Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 31

By · Published

POR

Statz pick

Portland Trail Blazers to win

We give the Portland Trail Blazers a 67% chance, against 33% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

67%
POR to win
Polymarket1.38

The Statz model favours the Portland Trail Blazers at 67% to beat the Utah Jazz, with a projected margin of 6.0 points and a total of 236.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jaren Jackson Jr., out for the Jazz with a torn MCL.

The Portland Trail Blazers visit the Utah Jazz on Saturday 31 October, with tip at 3:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Portland the favourite at 67%, with a projected margin of 6.0 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

Utah are 1-4 this season, with the run reading L L L W L. They have lost three straight at home, to the Spurs (111-117), Memphis (105-110) and the Lakers (123-132). The one win was a 120-119 squeak over New Orleans. Across five games the Jazz score 112.4 and concede 120.2, and the defence is the problem. Their opening game, a 103-123 loss at Memphis, was the heaviest defeat of the run.

Portland are 3-1, with the run reading L W W W. They won 124-83 over Phoenix at home, then 128-120 at Sacramento and 136-129 at the Lakers. Their last outing was a 103-124 home loss to Memphis. Over four games the Trail Blazers score 122.8 and concede 114.0. That is a gap of nearly nine points a game in their favour, against a Jazz side running the other way. Portland travel here as the better side on both ends.

Team news and lineups

Utah carry the bigger problem. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. His absence leaves a hole in the frontcourt. The minutes are likely to go to a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba, and the Jazz could also slide Lauri Markkanen to centre at times when he is healthy.

Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a partial plantar plate tear in his toe, with a return date of 4 November. That removes a second big man. Trey Alexander is out with a knee bone bruise. Utah are thin up front, and that matters against a Portland side that scores freely.

For Portland, Shaedon Sharpe is out with a torn meniscus and is not expected back until March. That costs the Trail Blazers wing depth, with bench minutes open to others. Chris Youngblood, a two-way player, is also listed out. Neither absence changes the core of the rotation.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija is projected for 23.6 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists. He is Portland's top scorer in the model, and he faces a Jazz frontcourt that is short of size.

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is projected for 21.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists, with 3.1 three-pointers. That is the highest projected three-point count on the Portland side, and it drives a lot of their scoring.

Ja Morant

Ja Morant is projected for 17.3 points and 5.3 assists. His rim pressure tests a Jazz defence that has conceded 120.2 a game.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is projected for 22.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is the engine of the Utah offence, and the model expects him to carry a heavy load.

Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen is projected for 19.7 points and 6.7 rebounds. With Jackson out, his rebounding matters more, and he is the Jazz's best route to keeping pace.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey is projected for 15.0 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.8 three-pointers. He is a useful secondary scorer on a side that needs one.

Statz prediction

The model takes Portland. It gives the Trail Blazers a 67% win probability and a line of -6.0, with Utah at +6.0. It projects 121.3 points for Portland and 115.3 for Utah, a total of 236.7.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no edge to measure between model and market. Without a posted total, we do not take a side on the over or under. The 236.7 projection points to a high-scoring game, given Utah's defensive form and its thin frontcourt.

Statz pick: Portland Trail Blazers -6.0 (model line, 67% win probability).

Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds once they are posted.

POR @ UTA questions

Who does the model favour, Trail Blazers or Jazz?
The Statz model favours the Portland Trail Blazers at 67%, against 33% for the Utah Jazz. It projects Portland to win by 6.0 points, with a model line of -6.0 for the Trail Blazers and +6.0 for Utah.
What is the projected total for Trail Blazers at Jazz?
The model projects a total of 236.7 points. It has Portland scoring 121.3 and Utah scoring 115.3. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
Has a bookmaker posted a line for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet, so there is no comparison between model and market. Check back, as lines move before tip, which is 3:00 PM ET on Saturday 31 October.
Which injury matters most for the Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a toe injury. That leaves Utah short up front, with Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba sharing minutes.
How have the Trail Blazers started the season?
Portland are 3-1, with the run reading L W W W. They beat Phoenix 124-83, Sacramento 128-120 and the Lakers 136-129, then lost 103-124 at home to Memphis. They average 122.8 points for and 114.0 against.
How have the Jazz started the season?
Utah are 1-4, with the run reading L L L W L. Their only win was 120-119 over New Orleans. They average 112.4 points for and concede 120.2, and they have lost three straight at home.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Portland Trail Blazers or Utah Jazz?

The Statz model favours the Portland Trail Blazers with a 67% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 33%. Over their last five games the Utah Jazz are 1-4 and the Portland Trail Blazers are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz?

No spread or total is posted yet for Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz?

For Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, the model projects Keyonte George for 22.4 points and Lauri Markkanen for 19.7 points for the Utah Jazz. For the Portland Trail Blazers it projects Deni Avdija for 23.6 points and Damian Lillard for 21.0 points.