Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 31

Memphis comes in 5-0 with five straight wins. The group averages 118.2 points for and 106.2 against. Four of the five wins came on the road, including 124-103 at POR, 110-105 at UTA and 123-112 at SAC on 25 October. The 111-108 win at GSW and the 110-105 win at UTA were tight, so the run is not all comfortable. The only home game so far was a 123-103 win over UTA.

Sacramento is 0-5 with five straight losses. The Kings average 110.2 points for and 126.8 against, and that defensive number is the problem. The scores that stand out are 96-121 at LAC, 103-130 at SAS and 120-132 at NOP on 29 October. They also lost at home to POR 120-128 and to Memphis 112-123. Memphis scored 123 in that meeting, and this game is the Kings' first road trip back to face them.

Memphis has nobody on the injury report. That means no minutes need redistributing and no role is in doubt. The rotation can run at full strength, which matters for a team leaning on depth in a run of games.

Sacramento is thin. Keegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis and will be re-evaluated in 10-to-14 days, with a return date of 6 November. Dylan Cardwell is out with a calf strain and is also pointed to 6 November. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patellar subluxation, and his absence is expected to run into mid-November, with 10 November as the listed date. Ben Simmons is reported out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon.

The effect is felt most in the frontcourt. With Cardwell and Raynaud both out, Precious Achiuwa, Jonathan Mogbo and De'Andre Hunter are the candidates for extra minutes. Murray's absence also removes a wing option, with Daeqwon Plowden among those picking up the slack. A short bench against a deep Memphis group is a poor matchup for a team already conceding 126.8 points a game.

The model takes the Memphis Grizzlies. It gives them a 79% win probability and a line of -11.0, with the Sacramento Kings at +11.0. Its projected score is 123.4 for Memphis and 112.4 for Sacramento, a total of 235.8.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing side: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline. That also means there is no total lean to give. The 235.8 projection is where the model stands, and it needs a posted number to mean anything for a bet.

The case for Memphis is simple. They are 5-0, they beat Sacramento 123-112 on 25 October, and they have a clean injury report against a side missing four players and conceding 126.8 a game. Sacramento's depth is the issue, and tonight it is tested again.

Statz pick: Memphis Grizzlies to win, 79% model win probability, model line -11.0.

Lines move before tip, so check the NBA odds once a number is posted and compare it to the model line.