Atlanta HawksHawks
Sat, Oct 317:00 PMETNew Orleans
New Orleans PelicansPelicans
ATL1.68NOP2.47via Polymarket

Atlanta Hawks vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 31

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ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 62% chance, against 38% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

62%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.68

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks over the New Orleans Pelicans with a 62% win probability and a model line of -4.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Yves Missi, the Pelicans big man, who is out with a knee bone bruise.

The Atlanta Hawks visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday 31 October, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Atlanta the favourite at 62% and sets the Hawks at -4.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the comparison is still missing.

How the teams arrive

New Orleans is 1-4 across its first five games, with a run of W L L L L reading from the most recent game. The Pelicans beat Sacramento 132-120 at home on 29 October. Before that they lost 91-104 to Denver at home, which was a flat night. Their other losses were tight: 135-141 at Denver, 119-120 at Utah and 120-123 against Indiana. They average 119.4 points for and 121.6 against. The scoring is fine. The defence is the problem.

Atlanta is 3-3 through six games and comes in off a 114-111 home win over Cleveland. The Hawks have a wide spread of results. They won 128-81 at Charlotte and 132-125 at Orlando. They also lost 117-129 to Miami, 110-120 at Houston and 114-121 to Houston at home. They average 119.2 points for and 114.5 against. That gap in points allowed is the clearest difference between the sides on form.

Team news and lineups

New Orleans has one name on the injury list that matters. Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise and has no official timetable. The report says he is likely to miss significant time. That removes a big from the rotation and puts pressure on the frontcourt minutes. The report points to Derik Queen as a candidate to step into a bigger role. Expect the Pelicans to lean on their wings and forwards for rebounding.

Atlanta is without two players. Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn right ACL. He was expected to spend a lot of time in the G League, so the effect on tonight's rotation is small. Mouhamed Gueye is out after surgery on a fractured left foot. That leaves rookie Zuby Ejiofor behind Onyeka Okongwu in the big-man group, with Jock Landale listed as the projected backup centre and carrying an ankle issue. Atlanta's depth up front is thin, which is a small risk for a favourite.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 19.4 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He is New Orleans' main source of scoring in the paint. With Missi out, his rebounding load rises.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 17.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.6 threes. He gives the Pelicans their best floor-spacing option, and the 2.6 threes are the number to note.

Saddiq Bey

Saddiq Bey is projected for 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.8 threes. He is a steady third scorer, and his rebounding matters more with the big man gone.

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson is projected for 21.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists. He is the highest-rated player in the game and runs Atlanta's offence from the forward spot. A near triple-double line is the main problem for the Pelicans.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected for 21.0 points and 3.4 threes. That three-point number is the highest in the projections for either side. He is the likeliest source of a hot shooting night.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum is projected for 17.8 points, 3.9 assists and 2.3 threes. He gives the Hawks a second creator when Johnson sits, and his scoring helps keep the offence steady.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 62% win probability and a projected margin that produces a model line of -4.2, with the Pelicans at +4.2. The team scores are 121.3 for Atlanta and 117.1 for New Orleans, which gives a model total of 238.4.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make. The model is in place, but the market is missing: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline. We will not guess at a number. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with -4.2 and 238.4. A model total at that level points to a high-scoring game, and both teams allow more than they would like. The lean is toward the over, but wait for a posted total before acting on it.

The case for Atlanta rests on defence, the Missi absence and Johnson's all-round game. The case for New Orleans is its scoring, Williamson and a home crowd.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks to win, model line -4.2, 62% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the price before you bet.

ATL @ NOP questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Hawks vs Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 62% win probability and a model line of -4.2, with the New Orleans Pelicans at +4.2. The game is on Saturday 31 October at 7:00 PM ET.
What is the model total for Hawks vs Pelicans?
The model total is 238.4 points. It projects 121.3 points for the Atlanta Hawks and 117.1 for the New Orleans Pelicans. No market total has been posted yet, so there is no over or under line to compare it with.
Has a betting line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison. Check the Statz NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with the model line of -4.2 and total of 238.4.
Which injury matters most for the Pelicans?
Yves Missi is out with a left knee bone bruise and has no official timetable for his return. The report says he is likely to miss significant time. His absence thins the Pelicans' frontcourt and could open a bigger role for Derik Queen.
Who is projected to lead the Hawks in scoring?
Jalen Johnson leads the Hawks in the projections with 21.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is close behind at 21.0 points and 3.4 threes, and CJ McCollum is projected for 17.8 points.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Atlanta Hawks or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 62% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 38%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 1-4 and the Atlanta Hawks are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans?

For Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, the model projects Zion Williamson for 19.4 points and Trey Murphy III for 17.6 points for the New Orleans Pelicans. For the Atlanta Hawks it projects Jalen Johnson for 21.5 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 21.0 points.