Atlanta HawksHawks
Mon, Nov 27:30 PMETIndiana
Indiana PacersPacers
ATL1.55IND2.82via Polymarket

Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

By · Published

ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 59% chance, against 41% for the Indiana Pacers. See the full projection →

59%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.55

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 59% to beat the Indiana Pacers on Monday 2 November, with a model line of -3.2 and a projected total of 238.4. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Tyrese Haliburton, out for Indiana with a return date of 13 November.

The Atlanta Hawks visit the Indiana Pacers on Monday 2 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. The Statz model favours Atlanta at 59%, with a model line of -3.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to set against it. Check the NBA odds page as lines appear.

How the teams arrive

Indiana is 2-4 this season and is giving up more than it scores, with 116.7 points for and 119.8 against. The recent run is rough: losses at Milwaukee (102-110) and Miami (125-145), plus a home loss to Philadelphia (109-114). The one big result was a 136-109 win at Brooklyn. The Pacers also beat New Orleans 123-120 on the road, but they lost 105-121 at home to Dallas. Their last result came away from home.

Atlanta is 3-4, and its numbers are close to even: 116.3 points for and 115.4 against. The swings are large. The Hawks beat Charlotte 128-81 on the road and Orlando 132-125, then lost 99-121 at New Orleans in their latest game. They also beat Cleveland 114-111 at home. Two defeats to Houston (114-121 at home, 110-120 away) and a 117-129 home loss to Miami sit alongside those wins. Atlanta is the more stable side on the season averages, and that is part of why the model leans its way.

Team news and lineups

Indiana carries the heavier list. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain. The report is that he will miss at least two weeks, and his return date is 13 November. That removes the main playmaker. The reporting points to a usage bump for Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam, with more minutes for Quenton Jackson.

Ben Sheppard is out after meniscus surgery and will miss months. His return date is 2 January. Johnny Furphy is recovering from an ACL repair, also with a 2 January return date. Both are depth losses on the wing.

Two names have return dates of 2 November but are still listed out. Ivica Zubac has an ankle sprain. Reports said his next chance to play would come against the Hawks, so his status is the one to watch before tip. T.J. McConnell has a right hamstring strain and has been closing in on his season debut. If either plays, Indiana's interior and bench rotation changes. If neither does, the Pacers lean on Jay Huff and Larry Nance in the frontcourt.

Atlanta's list is lighter and does not touch the main rotation. Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn right ACL. Mouhamed Gueye is out after foot surgery, with a return date of 20 November. Both are big-man depth, so the Hawks' core minutes should hold as they are.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam projects at 23.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists. He is Indiana's top scorer in the model, and with Haliburton out he carries more of the creation load.

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard projects at 16.7 points and 9.2 assists, with 2.0 threes. The assist figure is the story. He runs the offence while Haliburton is out, and his passing decides whether Indiana scores at its season pace.

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Kelly Oubre Jr. projects at 12.3 points and 4.5 rebounds, with 1.4 threes. He is a secondary scorer who gets more room when the ball handlers draw attention.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads Atlanta at 20.6 points, with 3.1 threes. That is the highest three-point projection in the game. His shooting is the Hawks' clearest edge on the perimeter.

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson projects at 18.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He fills three columns and is the player most likely to dictate pace for Atlanta.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum projects at 17.5 points, 3.7 assists and 2.2 threes. He supplies shot creation and scoring off the bounce, which matters against an Indiana side short on guards.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them 59% to win and projects a margin that makes the model line -3.2 for Atlanta and +3.2 for Indiana. The projected score is Hawks 120.8, Pacers 117.6, for a model total of 238.4.

There is nothing to compare it with yet. The market is the missing piece: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline. So there is no gap between model and market to report, and no total lean to take. The projected total is high, and both teams have scored well in spurts, but a lean needs a posted number.

The case for Atlanta rests on Indiana being without its lead playmaker, with the Zubac and McConnell questions still open, against a Hawks side with no rotation absences listed. The Hawks' season averages (116.3 points for, 115.4 against) are also better than Indiana's (116.7 for, 119.8 against). Nothing here is certain, and one cold shooting night can undo a 59% edge.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks, model line -3.2, 59% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so recheck the injury news and the posted numbers before you act.

ATL @ IND questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Hawks vs Pacers?
The model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 59%, which leaves the Indiana Pacers at 41%. Its line is -3.2 for Atlanta and +3.2 for Indiana. The projected score is Hawks 120.8 to Pacers 117.6.
What is the projected total for Hawks vs Pacers?
The Statz model projects a total of 238.4 points, made up of 120.8 for Atlanta and 117.6 for Indiana. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for Hawks at Pacers?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet. That means there is no comparison between the model and the market. Lines usually appear closer to tip, and they can move afterwards.
Who is injured for the Indiana Pacers?
Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain and has a return date of 13 November. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out long term. Ivica Zubac and T.J. McConnell are listed out, but both carry a return date of 2 November.
What time is Hawks vs Pacers on 2 November?
The game is on Monday 2 November 2026, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. Indiana is the home team. The Atlanta Hawks travel in after a 99-121 loss at New Orleans in their last game.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Atlanta Hawks or Indiana Pacers?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 59% win probability, leaving the Indiana Pacers at 41%. Over their last five games the Indiana Pacers are 1-4 and the Atlanta Hawks are 1-4. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers?

For Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers, the model projects Pascal Siakam for 23.4 points and Andrew Nembhard for 16.7 points for the Indiana Pacers. For the Atlanta Hawks it projects Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 20.6 points and Jalen Johnson for 18.9 points.