Utah JazzJazz
Mon, Nov 28:30 PMETSan Antonio
San Antonio SpursSpurs
UTA8.00SAS1.14via Polymarket

Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

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SAS

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 90% chance, against 10% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

90%
SAS to win
Polymarket1.14

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 90% to beat the Utah Jazz on Monday 2 November, with a projected home margin of 17.2 and a model total of 234.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out for Utah, which is the injury that matters.

The Utah Jazz visit the San Antonio Spurs on Monday 2 November, with tip at 8:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Spurs the clear favourite at 90% to win, with a model line of -17.2. The market has no line to set against it yet, because no bookmaker has posted one.

How the teams arrive

San Antonio are 4-2 over their first six games and have won four in a row. The run includes a 130-103 win over Sacramento, a 122-106 win at Dallas and a 121-111 win over Minnesota on Saturday. They averaged 117.3 points for and 110.2 against. The two defeats came at home, 104-116 to Oklahoma City and 110-114 to Houston. Both were early in the run, and the Spurs have not lost since.

Utah are 1-5 and have lost four straight. Their only win was 120-119 over New Orleans. Since then they lost 123-132 to the Lakers, 105-110 to Memphis and 90-112 to Portland on Saturday. The Jazz average 108.7 points for and 118.8 against, a clear gap on the wrong side. They also lost to this opponent on 28 October, 111-117, which is the most recent head-to-head. It was closer than the model's margin for tonight suggests.

Team news and lineups

The injury list tilts toward Utah. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL in his right knee, with a 6-to-8 week timeline. That removes the Jazz's main frontcourt piece and leaves the centre minutes to a timeshare. It also pushes more rebounding and rim protection onto smaller options against a San Antonio side that scores freely.

Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot, so Utah have no settled big man behind Jackson. Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise, which thins the depth further. Three players out is a lot for a team already conceding 118.8 points a game.

San Antonio are missing Tobias Harris (calf), who has yet to make his debut for the club and is listed as week-to-week. Jayden Quaintance is out as he works back from a torn ACL and meniscus, and the Spurs are expected to be cautious with him. Neither absence has stopped the recent run of wins. The rotation is largely intact.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 28.6 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.3 threes. The rebound number is the one to watch. Utah have lost their interior size, so he should have room to score and to control the glass.

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox is projected for 18.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.7 threes. He sets the pace for a Spurs team projected at 125.7 points. If Utah cannot get back in transition, his speed is the problem they face first.

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle is projected for 16.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.8 threes. His all-round line shows how many ways San Antonio can create. He is the likeliest to fill gaps if the game gets loose.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is projected for 20.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.1 threes. He is the main creator on a Jazz team short of options. His workload will be heavy if Utah need to chase the game.

Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen is projected for 19.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.1 threes. He is the best scoring option beside George, and his rebounding matters more with Jackson out.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey is projected for 14.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.8 threes. He gives Utah some size on the wing. He needs to rebound well for the Jazz to stay in range.

Statz prediction

The model takes the San Antonio Spurs. It gives them a 90% win probability and a projected margin of 17.2, which is the model line of -17.2. It projects 125.7 points for San Antonio and 108.5 for Utah, a model total of 234.2.

There is no comparison against the market, because the market is the missing half. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so there is no edge to measure and no total lean to give. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with -17.2 and 234.2.

The case for San Antonio rests on form and personnel. They have won four straight and the Jazz have lost four straight. Utah are also without Jackson and Nurkic. The Jazz did stay within six points in their last meeting, 111-117, so a margin this large is a model view and not a certainty.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs to win, 90% model probability, model line -17.2.

Lines move before tip, so check the price before you act.

UTA @ SAS questions

Who does the model favour in Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 90% to win, with the Utah Jazz at 10%. The model line is San Antonio -17.2, based on a projected home margin of 17.2 points.
What is the projected total for Jazz vs Spurs?
The model projects 234.2 total points, with 125.7 for the San Antonio Spurs and 108.5 for the Utah Jazz. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a bookmaker posted a line for this game?
No. At the time of writing no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no model-versus-market comparison. The market is the missing side. Check the Statz NBA odds page for updates once lines are posted.
Who is injured for the Utah Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and a 6-to-8 week timeline. Jusuf Nurkic is out with a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot. Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise.
How have the Spurs and Jazz played recently?
San Antonio are 4-2 and have won four straight, most recently 121-111 over Minnesota. Utah are 1-5 and have lost four straight, most recently 90-112 to Portland. The Spurs beat the Jazz 117-111 on 28 October.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Utah Jazz or San Antonio Spurs?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 90% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 10%. Over their last five games the San Antonio Spurs are 4-1 and the Utah Jazz are 1-4. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs?

No spread or total is posted yet for Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs?

For Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, the model projects Victor Wembanyama for 28.6 points and De'Aaron Fox for 18.4 points for the San Antonio Spurs. For the Utah Jazz it projects Keyonte George for 20.2 points and Lauri Markkanen for 19.9 points.