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San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 6

Updated Nov 5, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

SAS

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 87% chance, against 13% for the Sacramento Kings. See the full projection →

87%
SAS to win
Kalshi1.15

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 87% to beat the Sacramento Kings on Friday 6 November, with a model line of -15.3 and a projected total of 230.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet. The injury that matters most is Keegan Murray, who is out for the Kings and shrinks their frontcourt rotation further.

The San Antonio Spurs visit the Sacramento Kings on Friday 6 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET. The model makes the Spurs the clear favourite at 87%, with a model line of -15.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.

How the teams arrive

The Kings arrive in poor form. They are 1-7 across their eight games this season, and the one win was 115-100 at Dallas. The losses have been heavy: 105-136 at Memphis, 120-132 at New Orleans and 103-116 at home to the Lakers on Wednesday. They average 109.3 points for and concede 123.3. Their defence has been the problem, and it has not been close. They also lost 103-130 at San Antonio on 27 October.

The Spurs are 6-2 across their eight games, and the last six have all been wins. They beat the Kings 130-103 at home, Utah 119-97 and Minnesota 121-111. Wednesday brought a 112-111 home win over Dallas, a much tighter result than most of the run. They average 116.9 points for and allow 108.6. Early losses to Oklahoma City and Houston are the only blemishes, and now they travel to Sacramento.

Team news and lineups

The Kings are thin up front and on the wing. Keegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis and will be re-evaluated in 10-to-14 days. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patellar subluxation, and his absence is expected to run into mid-November. Dylan Cardwell is also missing time with a calf issue, per the same reports.

Plowden is out with an illness and is considered day-to-day. Ben Simmons is out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon. The reports point to more minutes for Precious Achiuwa, Jonathan Mogbo and De'Andre Hunter. That means more load on a frontcourt that is already giving up a lot of points.

The Spurs have two absences. Tobias Harris is out with a strained calf and has yet to debut for the club. Jayden Quaintance has not been cleared for basketball activities, and San Antonio is expected to be very cautious with him. Neither changes the core rotation much, so the Spurs' depth is largely intact.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Darius Acuff Jr.

Darius Acuff Jr. is projected for 22.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 2.5 threes. He is the Kings' main source of creation. If San Antonio loads up on him, the offence has few other routes.

Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine is projected for 18.8 points and 2.3 threes. He is the second scoring option and will need to shoot well for Sacramento to keep pace.

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis is projected for 15.6 points, 12.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists. With Murray and Raynaud out, he carries the glass and the interior passing. His workload matters.

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 27.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 threes. He is the biggest mismatch on the floor against a depleted Kings frontcourt.

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox is projected for 16.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.4 assists. He sets the tempo, and he faces a Kings defence that has been giving up plenty.

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle is projected for 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists. His all-round line gives San Antonio a second playmaker next to Fox.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Spurs at 87%, with a model line of -15.3 and a projected total of 230.6. It projects 122.9 points for San Antonio and 107.7 for Sacramento. The market is the missing piece: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make yet. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear.

The case for the Spurs is simple. They have won six in a row, and they beat the Kings 130-103 on 27 October. The Kings are 1-7 and have been outscored heavily on most nights. Their injury list also hits the frontcourt. With no market total, there is no total lean to give. Compare 230.6 with the number when it is posted.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs to win, 87% model win probability, model line -15.3. Lines move before tip, so check the number you can actually get before you act.

SAS @ SAC questions

Who is favoured in San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 87%, which leaves the Sacramento Kings at 13%. The model line is -15.3 for the Spurs. No bookmaker has posted a market line yet, so there is nothing to compare it with.
What is the projected score for Spurs at Kings?
The model projects 122.9 points for the San Antonio Spurs and 107.7 for the Sacramento Kings. That gives a projected total of 230.6 and a projected home margin of -15.3. These are model figures, not a market line.
What time is Spurs vs Kings on 6 November?
Tip is at 10:00 PM ET on Friday 6 November. The game is in Sacramento, so the Kings are the home side. The San Antonio Spurs travel in on a run of six straight wins.
Which Kings players are out against the Spurs?
Keegan Murray, Maxime Raynaud and Ben Simmons are listed as out, and Daeqwon Plowden is out with an illness and is day-to-day. Simmons is out for the season after Achilles surgery. Murray and Raynaud are both expected back around 10 November.
How have the Kings and Spurs played this season?
The Kings are 1-7 across eight games and average 109.3 points for and 123.3 against. The Spurs are 6-2, averaging 116.9 for and 108.6 against. San Antonio beat Sacramento 130-103 on 27 October.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, San Antonio Spurs or Sacramento Kings?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 87% win probability, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 13%. Over their last five games the Sacramento Kings are 1-4 and the San Antonio Spurs are 5-0. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings?

No spread or total is posted yet for San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings?

For San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, the model projects Darius Acuff Jr. for 22.3 points and Zach LaVine for 18.8 points for the Sacramento Kings. For the San Antonio Spurs it projects Victor Wembanyama for 27.0 points and De'Aaron Fox for 16.4 points.