San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 7

Portland arrive 6-1 over their first seven games of the season. They have averaged 121.9 points for and allowed 110.7. The standout scores are a 124-83 home win over Phoenix and a 132-119 win at Phoenix in their latest outing. They also beat Denver 118-110 and Utah 112-90, both away. The one defeat was a 103-124 home loss to Memphis. Most of their games so far have been on the road, so this is a rare chance to play in front of their own crowd.

San Antonio are 6-2 over eight games, averaging 116.9 points for and 108.6 against. They have won every game since losses to Oklahoma City (104-116) and Houston (110-114), both at home. The wins include a 130-103 result over Sacramento and a 122-106 win at Dallas. Their latest game was a 112-111 squeaker over Dallas. This is a road game, but their defence has held up: 108.6 allowed is lower than Portland's scoring average of 121.9 would suggest they can easily match.

Portland carry the heavier list. Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain, with a return date of 1 December. His absence leaves a major void in the starting backcourt and pushes more creation onto the rest of the guards. Vit Krejci is out with a fracture and is not expected back until 2 January. His minutes figure to go to Chris Youngblood and Sidy Cissoko. Shaedon Sharpe is out after meniscus surgery, with a return date of 2 March. His loss thins the wing depth. John Tonje is out on a two-way assignment and has no effect on the rotation.

San Antonio are in better shape. Jayden Quaintance is out after right knee surgery, with a return date of 3 December. The Spurs are being careful with the big man, so he is no factor tonight. Tobias Harris is out with a left calf strain and has yet to make his Spurs debut. His listed return date is 9 November, so he stays out here. Maliq Brown and Ja'Kobi Gillespie are on two-way assignments and do not change the rotation.

The net effect: Portland are short on guards and wings, while San Antonio are missing only depth pieces.

The model takes the San Antonio Spurs. It gives them a 61% win probability and a line of -3.9, with projected scoring of 116.6 for the Spurs and 112.7 for the Trail Blazers. The edge comes from the health gap, with Portland missing Morant and Krejci, and from Wembanyama's projected output.

There is no market comparison to make because no bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet. The model total is 229.3. With nothing to measure it against, there is no total lean. Wait for a posted number before judging the over or under.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs at the model line of -3.9, 61% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the number once books post it.