Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

Dallas is 4-2 this season, and the run reads W W W L W L, most recent first. The Mavericks beat Houston 116-111 and Oklahoma City 120-96 at home, then won 113-109 at Miami. The loss that stands out is 106-122 to San Antonio at home. They have scored 114.3 and allowed 111.8 per game over the six. Monday is a home game, and they have already shown a high ceiling in front of their own crowd.

Sacramento is 0-6, a run of six straight losses. The scoring is steady at 109.3 per game. The defence is the problem, with 128.3 allowed. The Kings lost 105-136 at Memphis, 103-130 at San Antonio and 120-132 at New Orleans. Even the closest results were defeats of eight and eleven points: 120-128 to Portland and 112-123 to Memphis at home. They also lost 96-121 at the Clippers on opening night. This is a team that has not found a way to get stops.

Dallas has four players listed out: Santi Aldama, Dereck Lively II, Tarik Biberovic and Sergio De Larrea. Aldama is recovering from right knee surgery. Lively had right foot surgery and has no clear timetable. Biberovic is still waiting for his league debut because of heel bursitis. De Larrea sprained his right knee against Miami and will be re-evaluated, with a return date of 4 November. The reports say his absence should not shift the rotation much.

The frontcourt is where Dallas feels it. With Aldama and Lively out, Zaccharie Risacher, Morez Johnson, Caleb Martin and Moussa Cisse are expected to take extra minutes. Depth is thinner at the big spots, but the Mavericks have won four of six with this group.

Sacramento is far more depleted. Keegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis and will be re-evaluated in 10-to-14 days. Dylan Cardwell (calf) and Maxime Raynaud (right patellar subluxation) are also out. Ben Simmons is reported out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon. The frontcourt minutes fall to Precious Achiuwa, De'Andre Hunter and Jonathan Mogbo. That helps explain a defence giving up 128.3 per game.

The model takes the Dallas Mavericks. It gives them a 73% win probability, a projected margin of 8.1 points and a model line of -8.1, with the Sacramento Kings at +8.1. The projected score is 121.0 to 112.8, a model total of 233.8.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model finds an edge on the line or on the total. We also will not state a total lean until a number exists. The model total of 233.8 is the figure to hold against any number posted.

The case for Dallas is simple. The Mavericks are 4-2 and the Kings are 0-6 with 128.3 points allowed per game. Sacramento's absences cut into both depth and size. The risk is that Dallas is also missing frontcourt bodies, and an 8.1-point margin leaves room for a closer game.

Statz pick: Dallas Mavericks (73%), model line -8.1, model total 233.8.

Lines move before tip, so recheck the number once a book posts one.