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Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

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DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 59% chance, against 41% for the Portland Trail Blazers. See the full projection →

59%
DEN to win
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The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 59% to beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday 2 November, with a model line of -3.1 and a projected total of 234.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Ja Morant, out for Portland with a Grade 2 hamstring strain.

The Portland Trail Blazers visit the Denver Nuggets on Monday 2 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 59% win probability, with a model line of -3.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check NBA odds for when lines appear.

How the teams arrive

Denver sit 3-2 across five games this season, and the run has been uneven: W W L W L. The best results came on the road, 127-120 at Phoenix and 104-91 at New Orleans. The low points were a 114-134 home loss to Golden State and an 84-96 defeat at Oklahoma City. The Nuggets average 114.0 points for and 115.2 against, so their defence has been giving back what the offence makes. They also beat New Orleans 141-135 at home.

Portland arrive 4-1, with the sequence W L W W W, and they are the sharper team on the scoreboard so far. They average 120.6 points for and 109.2 against. The standout scores are a 124-83 home win over Phoenix and a 112-90 win at Utah. They also won at Sacramento 128-120 and at the Lakers 136-129. The one blemish was a 103-124 home loss to Memphis. This is Portland's road game against a Denver side with the stronger projection but the weaker early numbers.

Team news and lineups

Portland carry the bigger problems. Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to miss four weeks. That leaves a major gap in the backcourt, and the reports point to Jrue Holiday absorbing the extra work. Shaedon Sharpe is also out with a torn meniscus, an absence of six months. That thins the wing depth and opens bench minutes for Vit Krejci and Jeremy Sochan.

Denver have three players listed out. Spencer Jones has a hamstring problem and no firm timetable, so he is week-to-week. Julian Strawther has a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are the candidates for his minutes. Alpha Diallo has missed four straight games with a personal matter and a right wrist sprain, and this game is his next opportunity to return. His status is worth checking before tip.

The net effect: Denver lose depth on the wing and bench, while Portland lose creation and scoring from their guard rotation. The model weighs the second loss more heavily.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 25.3 points, 12.7 rebounds and 8.9 assists. He sets the ceiling for Denver, and the rebound number is the one to note. Portland's frontcourt has to handle him without much help from a thinned perimeter.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 25.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.9 threes. The three-point count is high, and it gives Denver a second scoring source that does not depend on Jokic.

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is projected for 17.3 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists. With Denver's depth reduced, his scoring is a key part of the third option.

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija is projected for 24.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists. With Morant out, he is Portland's main scorer and playmaker, and the model leans on his usage.

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is projected for 21.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 3.1 threes. He carries the guard load and is Portland's most likely source of a quick run from deep.

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday is projected for 14.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.4 threes. He steps into the role Morant leaves, so his playmaking matters as much as his scoring.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets at 59%, with a projected score of 118.9 to 115.8 over the Portland Trail Blazers. That gives a model line of -3.1 for Denver and +3.1 for Portland, and a model total of 234.8. The market side is missing: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no edge to measure. The total lean is toward points, given Portland's scoring form and Denver's 141-135 win over New Orleans, but wait for a posted number before judging value.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets to win, model 59%, model line -3.1, model total 234.8.

Lines move before tip, and so do injury reports, so recheck both before you act.

POR @ DEN questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Trail Blazers at Nuggets?
The model favours the Denver Nuggets at 59% win probability, against 41% for the Portland Trail Blazers. Its projected score is 118.9 to 115.8, which gives a model line of -3.1 for Denver.
What is the projected total for Trail Blazers vs Nuggets?
The Statz model projects a total of 234.8 points, made up of 118.9 for Denver and 115.8 for Portland. No bookmaker total is posted yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
What time is Trail Blazers at Nuggets?
Tip is at 9:00 PM ET on Monday 2 November 2026 in Denver. The Nuggets are the home team and the Trail Blazers are the visitors.
Which injury matters most for Portland?
Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to miss four weeks. Shaedon Sharpe is also out with a torn meniscus. Their absences remove guard and wing depth from the Portland Trail Blazers.
How have the teams started the season?
Portland are 4-1 across five games, averaging 120.6 points for and 109.2 against. Denver are 3-2, averaging 114.0 for and 115.2 against. Denver's losses were 114-134 to Golden State and 84-96 at Oklahoma City.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Portland Trail Blazers or Denver Nuggets?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 59% win probability, leaving the Portland Trail Blazers at 41%. Over their last five games the Denver Nuggets are 3-2 and the Portland Trail Blazers are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets?

For Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets, the model projects Nikola Jokic for 25.3 points and Jamal Murray for 25.2 points for the Denver Nuggets. For the Portland Trail Blazers it projects Deni Avdija for 24.1 points and Damian Lillard for 21.2 points.