Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

Golden State sit at 3-3 from six games this season. The sequence is W W W L L L, so they come in on a three-game winning run. They beat the Lakers 112-95 at home, then won at Minnesota 119-114 and at Denver 134-114. The earlier losses were 122-131 at Phoenix, 108-111 to Memphis and 105-127 at the Lakers. They average 116.7 points for and allow 115.3. Monday is a home game.

Phoenix are 1-3 from four games, in the order L L W L. They lost 120-127 to Denver at home and 114-125 at Oklahoma City. Their one win was 131-122 over these same Warriors at home. They also lost 83-124 at Portland. The Suns average 112.0 points for but concede 124.5, and defence is the clear concern. They travel for this one.

That win over Golden State is the only meeting this season, and it came at Phoenix. Monday is a different venue and a different rotation picture for the Warriors.

Golden State's list is long, but most of it is already priced into the early season. Kristaps Porzingis is away from the team indefinitely, and the Warriors are reportedly exploring trades. Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn right ACL, with a return reported for somewhere between January and February. Moses Moody is rehabbing a ruptured patellar tendon and is working toward a December or January return. That leaves the wing rotation thin and puts extra minutes on the next men up.

The more important question is the back-to-back. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both sat the Sunday game against the Clippers for rest and back management. Reporting says both should return against the Suns. If they do, the Warriors get their creator and their defensive organiser back. Neither is a certainty until the final report, so check it before tip.

Phoenix are without Mark Williams, who had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and faces an extended absence. That puts Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach in the frame at centre. Against a Warriors side shooting plenty of threes, rim protection is the matchup to watch for a team already conceding 124.5 points a game.

The model takes the Golden State Warriors. Its win probability of 55% sits alongside a model line of -1.7 for the home side, with a projected score of 114.5 to 112.7. That is a close game, and the edge is small.

We cannot compare the model to the market here. The market is the missing piece: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline. The model total is 227.2, but without a market total there is no total lean to give. Watch NBA odds for the first numbers.

The Curry and Green return is the swing factor. If either is ruled out late, the Warriors' edge shrinks. The Suns' defence, at 124.5 points allowed per game, is the other reason the model leans home.

Statz pick: Golden State Warriors on the model line of -1.7, with a 55% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the final price and injury report.