Orlando MagicMagic
Wed, Nov 119:00 PMETUtah
Utah JazzJazz
ORL1.60UTA2.67via Polymarket

Orlando Magic vs Utah Jazz Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

ORL

Statz pick

Orlando Magic to win

We give the Orlando Magic a 60% chance, against 40% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

60%
ORL to win
Polymarket1.60

The Statz model favours the Orlando Magic at 60% over the Utah Jazz, with a model line of -3.3 and a projected total of 222.5. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to compare. The injury that matters most is Paolo Banchero, who is out for Orlando.

The Orlando Magic visit the Utah Jazz on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Orlando the favourite at 60%, with a model line of -3.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Both teams arrive short-handed and struggling. The model leans on the side with the better top-end talent.

How the teams arrive

Utah are 1-9 over their last 10 and average 106.2 points for and 117.9 against in that run. Their only win came on 23 October, 120-119 at home over New Orleans. Every game since has been a loss. The scores say the defence is the problem. They lost 97-119 at San Antonio and 90-112 at home to Portland. The latest result was a 100-115 defeat at Minnesota, and they play at home tonight.

Orlando are 2-7 over nine games, averaging 107.0 points for and 116.2 against. They have two road wins in that stretch, 111-102 at New York and 121-114 at Toronto. They also lost 99-129 at Toronto two days before that win. The latest results are road losses at Golden State (119-126) and Phoenix (104-117), after home losses to Washington and Boston. The scoring is fine. The defence is leaking in the same way Utah's is.

Team news and lineups

Utah are thin up front. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a right MCL tear, with a return date of 14 December. Jusuf Nurkic is also out with a foot injury, with a return date of 20 November. That removes both established centres. The minutes fall to Jaxson Hayes and the reserve bigs, and it caps Utah's rim protection and rebounding. Two-way players Trey Alexander, Kobe Bufkin and Harrison Ingram are listed out while on G League duty.

Keyonte George is the one to watch. He is listed out with a right ankle sprain, but the report says his next chance to play is this game, after he sat out the first night of a back-to-back. If he plays, Darryn Peterson shares the ball-handling. If not, Peterson carries more on-ball duties.

Orlando have a longer list. Paolo Banchero is out with a high ankle sprain, with a return date of 22 November. Jalen Suggs is out with a knee bone bruise, with a return date of 16 November. Jonathan Isaac has yet to make his 2026-27 debut, though Wednesday is listed as his next chance. Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are out, each with a return date of 18 November. Without Banchero, more of the scoring load falls on Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane, and Tristan Da Silva should see extra minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen is projected at 17.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.9 assists, with 2.1 threes. He is Utah's top scorer on the model sheet. With the bigs out, his rebounding and spacing both matter.

Darryn Peterson

Darryn Peterson is projected at 13.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists. His assist number is the highest on the Utah list. It is likely to rise if George is limited or sits.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey is projected at 13.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.1 assists, with 1.5 threes. He is a wing who may have to help on the glass in a thin frontcourt.

Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner is projected at 22.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is the best player on either projection list. With Banchero out, he is Orlando's primary creator and scorer.

Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane is projected at 19.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, with 2.6 threes. His shooting is the biggest perimeter edge on the floor against a Utah defence allowing 117.9 per game over its last 10.

Anthony Black

Anthony Black is projected at 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists, with 1.7 threes. With Suggs out, his playmaking holds the second unit and the starting group together.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Orlando Magic. It gives them a 60% win probability and projects a 112.9 to 109.6 result against the Utah Jazz, which gives a model line of Magic -3.3 and Jazz +3.3. The projected total is 222.5.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or a total. Without a market total there is no lean on the over or under. Check the NBA odds page once lines are up. A Magic number shorter than -3.3 would leave little value, while a longer one would support the model's side.

The reasoning is simple. Both teams are 1-9 and 2-7 in recent form and allow similar scoring. Orlando still have Wagner and Bane, while Utah are without both centres. Utah's defence is the weaker unit over the recent run.

Statz pick: Orlando Magic, 60% win probability, model line -3.3.

Lines move before tip, especially with the status of Keyonte George and Orlando's injured players still unclear.

ORL @ UTA questions

Who does the model favour in Orlando Magic vs Utah Jazz?
The Statz model favours the Orlando Magic at 60%, with the Utah Jazz at 40%. The model line is Magic -3.3 and Jazz +3.3. The projected score is Orlando 112.9, Utah 109.6.
What is the projected total for Magic vs Jazz?
The model projects a total of 222.5 points, with Orlando at 112.9 and Utah at 109.6. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare against and no lean to give.
What time is Magic at Jazz on 11 November?
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz tips at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November. The game is in Utah, so the Jazz are the home team. The Magic are the road side and the model favourite.
Is Paolo Banchero playing against the Jazz?
No. Paolo Banchero is out with a right high ankle sprain, and his return date is listed as 22 November. Orlando will lean more on Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane, and Tristan Da Silva should see extra minutes.
Which Jazz players are out against the Magic?
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MCL tear, return date 14 December) and Jusuf Nurkic (foot, return date 20 November) are out. Keyonte George is listed out with an ankle sprain, though his next chance to play is this game.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Orlando Magic or Utah Jazz?

The Statz model favours the Orlando Magic with a 60% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 40%. Over their last five games the Utah Jazz are 0-5 and the Orlando Magic are 1-4. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz?

No spread or total is posted yet for Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz?

For Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz, the model projects Lauri Markkanen for 17.9 points and Darryn Peterson for 13.4 points for the Utah Jazz. For the Orlando Magic it projects Franz Wagner for 22.1 points and Desmond Bane for 19.3 points.