Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
Wed, Nov 1110:00 PMETPortland
Portland Trail BlazersTrail Blazers
OKC1.77POR2.30via Polymarket

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 57% chance, against 43% for the Portland Trail Blazers. See the full projection →

57%
OKC to win
Polymarket1.77

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 57% to beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday 11 November. The market makes the Thunder -1.5 favourites, with the model line at -2.4. The injury that matters most is Ja Morant's hamstring, which keeps him out of the Portland backcourt until at least 1 December.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder the favourite at 57%, and the market agrees on the side, with Oklahoma City at -1.5. Both rosters are thin, so the injury lists shape this game as much as the form does.

How the teams arrive

Oklahoma City arrives at 8-2 over its last 10 and has won every game since back-to-back defeats at Houston (98-119) and Dallas (96-120). The recent wins have been convincing: 114-75 over Washington, 128-97 at Memphis, and two close ones against Cleveland, 124-116 and 117-112. The Thunder average 112.2 points for and 104.2 against, so the edge is built on defence. They are on the road tonight.

Portland is 6-3 over its last nine and averages 119.3 points for and 113.8 against. The scoring is high, and so is the variance. The Trail Blazers have lost at home to San Antonio (103-125) and Memphis (103-124), and fell 118-124 at the Lakers in between. They also beat Phoenix 124-83 at home, won 132-119 at Phoenix, and won 112-90 at Utah. Their ceiling is real. The floor has been low in home games against good teams.

Team news and lineups

Portland's guard rotation is the main concern. Ja Morant is out with a left hamstring strain, and the latest reporting has a return date of 1 December. His absence leaves more minutes for Jrue Holiday. Vit Krejci is also out with a fracture, which thins the wing depth, and Shaedon Sharpe remains out after meniscus surgery. John Tonje is on a two-way assignment in the G League. Portland has little shot creation behind its top options.

Oklahoma City's list is longer. Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren are all out, and Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams are out too. Jaylin Williams has been dealing with back spasms. Nikola Topic is on assignment in the G League. The absences push minutes toward Jared McCain and Aday Mara, and concentrate the scoring load on the stars still available. Even so, the Thunder have kept winning with this group.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija is projected for 20.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists. With Morant out, he is Portland's main playmaker as well as a scorer, and his passing keeps the offence moving.

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is projected for 17.7 points and 2.6 threes. The three-point volume is the route to Portland covering, and his shooting gives the offence a way to keep pace.

Donovan Clingan

Donovan Clingan is projected for 10.2 points and 9.1 rebounds. With Oklahoma City missing size, the glass is where he can help most.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 29.0 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists. He carries the Thunder's offence with so many teammates out, and he is the main reason the model leans their way.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 15.3 points and 3.0 assists. He is the clear second option and the main creator when Gilgeous-Alexander rests or is doubled.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 12.6 points and 1.9 threes. Injuries to the guards ahead of him have opened a larger role, and his shooting helps the Thunder space the floor.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder, who win 57% of its simulations. It projects the Thunder as 2.4-point favourites, against a market line of -1.5, a gap of 0.9 points. The model and the market agree on the side, and the model sees a little more value in Oklahoma City. DraftKings has the best price on the Thunder spread at 1.89. The best moneyline on the Thunder is 1.72 at BetMGM.

On the total, the model projects 226.2 against a market line of 226.5. The gap is 0.3 points, so the model leans to neither side. Both teams are short-handed, and the total is a pass for us. Portland's recent home defence has been poor, but Oklahoma City's defence has been strong, so the two pull against each other.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 at 1.89 (DraftKings).

Lines move before tip, especially with this many injuries, so check NBA odds and the full preview before you act.

OKC @ POR questions

Who does the model favour in Thunder at Trail Blazers?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder, who win 57% of its simulations against 43% for the Portland Trail Blazers. It projects the Thunder as 2.4-point favourites, which is close to the market line.
What is the market spread for Thunder vs Trail Blazers?
The market has the Oklahoma City Thunder at -1.5 and the Portland Trail Blazers at +1.5. The model line is -2.4 for the Thunder, a gap of 0.9 points. The best price on the Thunder spread is 1.89 at DraftKings.
What is the total for Thunder vs Trail Blazers?
The market total is 226.5 and the model projects 226.2, a gap of 0.3 points. The model leans to neither the over nor the under. The best over price is 1.94 at Betrivers, and the best under price is 1.91 at BetMGM.
Is Ja Morant playing for the Trail Blazers?
No. Ja Morant is out with a left hamstring strain, with a return date of 1 December. His absence leaves more minutes for Jrue Holiday and puts extra playmaking on Deni Avdija, who is projected for 5.6 assists.
Which Thunder players are out against Portland?
Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams are all out for Oklahoma City, and Nikola Topic is on G League assignment. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 29.0 points in a thin rotation.
What time is Thunder at Trail Blazers?
The game is on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET in Portland. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the away team and the Statz model favourite, with the Portland Trail Blazers at home.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Oklahoma City Thunder or Portland Trail Blazers?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 57% win probability, leaving the Portland Trail Blazers at 43%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Oklahoma City Thunder as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is +119 for the Portland Trail Blazers and -141 for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

What is the spread and total for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?

Bet365 lists the Portland Trail Blazers at +1.0 with the total at 226.5 for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?

For Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, the board's headline props are Damian Lillard 8.5+ threes at 36.00, Deni Avdija 14.5+ assists at 36.00 and Aday Mara 6.5+ blocks at 36.00. For the Portland Trail Blazers the model projects Deni Avdija for 20.6 points and Damian Lillard for 17.7 points.