New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

Memphis are 6-0 and have won every game they have played this season. They average 121.2 points for and concede 106.0, a gap that shows up in the results. They beat Sacramento 136-105 at home on 31 October and Portland 124-103 on the road. They also won tight games away at Utah (110-105) and Golden State (111-108). They can win comfortably and they can win close, and tonight is a home game.

New Orleans are 2-4, with a sequence of W W L L L L, most recent game first. They have won their last two, 121-99 over Atlanta and 132-120 over Sacramento, both at home. Before that came four straight losses: 91-104 to Denver, 135-141 at Denver, 119-120 at Utah and 120-123 to Indiana. Three of those four were decided by five points or fewer. The Pelicans average 119.7 points for and allow 117.8, so their defence is the question. They now travel to Memphis.

Memphis have nobody on the injury report. That means the Grizzlies can use their full rotation and the model does not have to adjust for missing minutes.

New Orleans are without Yves Missi, who is out with a left knee bone bruise. He has not played since the 120-119 loss at Utah on 23 October. He has no definitive return date and should be considered week-to-week, with 8 November listed as the return date. His absence leaves a hole at centre. DeAndre Jordan, Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic could all see more action, though none is certain to take the interim starting job.

That matters against a Memphis side that has been scoring freely. With the centre spot unsettled, the Pelicans have fewer settled minutes to lean on in the paint, and the rotation may change from the first quarter.

The model takes the Memphis Grizzlies. It gives them a 66% win probability, a projected margin of 5.6 points, and a model line of -5.6 against +5.6 for the New Orleans Pelicans. It projects 121.5 points for Memphis and 116.0 for New Orleans, a total of 237.5.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so we cannot say whether the model sees an edge or lean on the total. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear.

The case for Memphis is simple. They are 6-0, they concede 106.0 points a game, and they are at home against a team missing its centre. New Orleans have the scorers to keep it close, and the model still gives them a 34% chance.

Statz pick: Memphis Grizzlies, 66% win probability, model line -5.6.

Lines move before tip, so compare any number you find with the model line before you act.