Minnesota TimberwolvesTimberwolves
Fri, Nov 68:00 PMETNew Orleans
New Orleans PelicansPelicans
MIN1.57NOP2.74via Polymarket

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 6

Updated Nov 5, with the latest lineups and odds

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Statz pick

Minnesota Timberwolves to win

We give the Minnesota Timberwolves a 59% chance, against 41% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

59%
MIN to win
Polymarket1.57

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves at 59% to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday 6 November, with a model line of -3.2 and a projected total of 232.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet. The injury that matters most is Anthony Edwards, who is out after knee surgery.

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday 6 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Timberwolves the favourite at 59%, with a model line of -3.2. The market has not caught up. No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is nothing to compare the model against. Check the NBA odds page for when numbers appear.

How the teams arrive

The Timberwolves come in at 6-3 over their nine games this season, and they have won two straight. They beat HOU 117-107 on the road and MIL 112-100 at home. The standout results are the 131-106 win at MIA and the 127-101 win over LAC. The blemishes are a 111-121 loss at SAS and home defeats by GSW and a one-point road loss at CLE (125-127). They average 118.8 points for and 107.6 against, and that defence is the story of their start. This is a road game.

The Pelicans are 4-4 across eight games, but the shape of that record matters. They opened with four straight losses, including 119-120 at UTA and 135-141 at DEN, then won four in a row. The run includes a 135-134 win at MEM, a 121-99 win over ATL and a 120-113 win over UTA on Tuesday. They average 121.6 points for and 119.3 against. The offence is producing. The defence is giving up plenty. They are at home on Friday.

Team news and lineups

The biggest absence is Minnesota's. Anthony Edwards is out after a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee. The team has given no timetable, though reporting says he could miss up to two months. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances, so the scoring and shot creation he leaves behind is large. Expect his usage to be spread across the rest of the backcourt and wings.

Minnesota is also without Terrence Shannon Jr., who has been productive off the bench and is out with a hip issue. Donte DiVincenzo remains out as he recovers from a torn Achilles, with no return timetable set. That leaves the Timberwolves thin on guard depth, and reserve minutes go to Bones Hyland, Isaiah Evans and Jaylen Clark.

New Orleans has its own gaps. Trey Murphy III is out with knee trouble, and Saddiq Bey and Herbert Jones should see more minutes. Yves Missi is also out with a bone bruise in his left knee, and the centre rotation is unsettled. DeAndre Jordan, Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic could all see more action. Losing a scorer and a big man at once weakens the Pelicans on both ends.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 18.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists. With Murphy out, he is the Pelicans' main source of scoring, and the offence runs through his work near the rim.

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray is projected for 15.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists. He is the connective piece, and the assist figure shows how much of the half-court offence he handles.

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears is projected for 14.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 threes. With wing depth short, his scoring and shooting carry more weight than usual.

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball is the top projected scorer for the Timberwolves at 19.1 points, with 3.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 3.8 threes. The three-point figure is the highest on the board, and he fills the creation gap Edwards leaves.

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu is projected for 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.7 threes. With Shannon and DiVincenzo out, his minutes and his role as a secondary playmaker matter.

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels is projected for 15.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.4 threes. He gives Minnesota a steady two-way wing, and his scoring helps cover for Edwards.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves. It gives them a 59% win probability against 41% for the New Orleans Pelicans, a model line of -3.2 and projected points of 117.7 to 114.5. Even without Edwards, the model sees Minnesota's defence as the difference against a Pelicans side that has leaked points all season and is short of Murphy and Missi.

There is no market line yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make. The market is the missing side. The model total is 232.2, but without a posted total there is no lean to give. Wait for a number before judging the over or under.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 59% model win probability, model line -3.2.

Lines move before tip, so check the number once books post it.

MIN @ NOP questions

Who does the model favour in Timberwolves at Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 59% win probability, against 41% for the New Orleans Pelicans. Its model line is Timberwolves -3.2, with projected points of 117.7 for Minnesota and 114.5 for New Orleans.
What is the projected total for this game?
The Statz model projects a total of 232.2 points for Timberwolves at Pelicans. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no over or under lean.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?
No. Anthony Edwards is out after an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee. The Timberwolves have given no timetable, though reporting says he could miss up to two months. He averaged 33.3 points across four appearances this season.
Which Pelicans players are out?
Trey Murphy III is out with knee trouble and Yves Missi is out with a bone bruise in his left knee. Saddiq Bey and Herbert Jones should see more minutes, and Missi's absence leaves the centre spot unsettled.
How have the two teams played this season?
The Timberwolves are 6-3 over nine games, averaging 118.8 points for and 107.6 against. The Pelicans are 4-4 over eight games, averaging 121.6 points for and 119.3 against, and have won four straight.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Minnesota Timberwolves or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 59% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 41%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-1 and the Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans?

For Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, the model projects Zion Williamson for 18.9 points and Dejounte Murray for 15.7 points for the New Orleans Pelicans. For the Minnesota Timberwolves it projects LaMelo Ball for 19.1 points and Ayo Dosunmu for 16.1 points.