Milwaukee Bucks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

Minnesota are 4-3 over their seven games this season and arrive home after a loss. The sequence reads L W L L W W W, most recent first. They lost 111-121 at San Antonio on Saturday night. Before that they beat the Clippers 127-101 at home, and earlier road wins at Miami (131-106) and Orlando (115-93) showed what the offence does when it is running. They average 120.0 points for and 108.7 against. The two narrow defeats, 125-127 at Cleveland and 114-119 to Golden State, kept the record from looking better.

Milwaukee are 1-5 over six games and the numbers are poor. They average 113.0 points for and concede 126.2. The recent scores are the concern: a 111-136 home loss to Cleveland, a 100-132 home loss to Houston and a 116-128 defeat at Washington. Their only win was 110-102 over Indiana at home. They also lost 116-127 at Philadelphia and 125-132 to Chicago. The Bucks have lost by double digits in most of their games and now travel to face a side that scores freely at home.

The injury report is lopsided in volume, but Minnesota carry the bigger absences. Anthony Edwards is out after an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee. The team has given no timetable, though earlier reporting suggested he could miss up to two months, and our data lists a return date of 21 December. He was averaging 33.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals across four appearances. That is a large chunk of scoring and shot creation to replace.

Donte DiVincenzo is also out. He is still recovering from a torn right Achilles suffered in the first round of the playoffs and is listed with a return date of 2 April. Minnesota have set no timetable and he is not part of tonight's picture.

What it means is a redistribution. With Edwards gone, the ball-handling and usage go to the guards and wings who remain, and the model reflects that in the projections below. Our team-first number still has Minnesota scoring 122.5 points, so the model does not see the offence stalling. Milwaukee have nobody on the injury report. That is a clean bill of health, but it comes with a 1-5 record and the worst defensive numbers of the two teams, so health is not their problem right now.

The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves. It gives them an 81% win probability, a projected score of 122.5 to 110.4 and a model line of -12.0, with Milwaukee at +12.0. The model total is 232.9. Those numbers fit the form: Minnesota score and defend well at home, while the Bucks have conceded 126.2 a game and lost heavily to Cleveland and Houston.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total for this game, so we cannot say whether the model line is above or below the market, and we have no total lean. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear and compare them with -12.0 and 232.9. A 12-point model line is a big number, and the Edwards absence is the reason to ask how much the market has priced in.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves, model line -12.0, 81% win probability, model total 232.9.

Lines move before tip, so treat these figures as the model's view and not a promise of the result. See the full preview for the model and form modules.