Miami HeatHeat
Sun, Nov 89:00 PMETSacramento
Sacramento KingsKings
MIA1.30SAC4.44via Kalshi

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 8

Updated Nov 7, with the latest lineups and odds

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MIA

Statz pick

Miami Heat to win

We give the Miami Heat a 74% chance, against 26% for the Sacramento Kings. See the full projection →

74%
MIA to win
Kalshi1.30

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 74% to beat the Sacramento Kings on Sunday 8 November, with a model line of -8.6 and a projected total of 240.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is on the Kings side: De'Andre Hunter's status.

The Miami Heat visit the Sacramento Kings on Sunday 8 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Heat the favourite at 74% to win, with a model line of -8.6. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is nothing to measure the model against for now.

How the teams arrive

Sacramento is 1-8 over its 9 games this season, and the form is bleak. The sequence reads L L W L L L L L L, with the lone win a 115-100 result at Dallas. The Kings have averaged 109.2 points for and conceded 123.3. The recent home games went badly: a 109-124 loss to San Antonio on Friday and a 103-116 loss to the Lakers before it. Heavy defeats at Memphis (105-136) and at the Clippers (96-121) show how far results have slipped.

Miami is 3-6 over its 9 games and arrives on the road after a tough week. The Heat lost 100-120 at Golden State on Thursday, a day after a 117-116 win at the Clippers. They have averaged 116.0 points for and allowed 122.6, a far smaller gap than the Kings. Their best result was a 145-125 win over Indiana, and they also beat Atlanta 129-117. The worst was a 117-138 loss at the Lakers. This is a flawed team, but a less flawed one than Sacramento.

Team news and lineups

Miami have nobody on the injury report. That matters. The Heat can play their full rotation on the second night of a western trip, and the model's projections for their players rest on normal minutes.

Sacramento's list is long. Ben Simmons is out for the season after surgery to repair a torn right Achilles tendon. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patellar subluxation, and his absence is expected to extend into mid-November. Keegan Murray is out with left ankle capsulitis and is set to be re-evaluated in 10-to-14 days.

De'Andre Hunter is the one to watch. He missed Friday's game with an illness, and this game against the Heat was flagged as his next opportunity to play. The data still lists him as out, so check his status before tip. The absences thin the frontcourt and the wings. Depth players such as Jonathan Mogbo and Daeqwon Plowden are in line for more minutes, which usually means a weaker defence and fewer reliable options when a game gets away from the Kings.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Darius Acuff Jr.

Darius Acuff Jr. is projected for 24.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 3.0 threes. He carries the Kings offence, and with so many teammates out, his shot volume is the main reason Sacramento can score at all.

Zach LaVine

Zach LaVine is projected for 20.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.7 threes. He is the second scoring option, and his three-point output is the swing factor if the Kings are to keep pace with a Heat attack projected at 124.3 points.

Domantas Sabonis

Domantas Sabonis is projected for 17.0 points, 12.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists. With the frontcourt depleted, his rebounding and passing carry extra weight. He is the Kings' best chance to control the glass.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for 26.8 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists. He is the biggest mismatch on the floor against a short-handed Sacramento frontcourt, and the model leans on his scoring more than anyone else's.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo is projected for 19.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 threes. He gives Miami a second interior presence and a secondary playmaker, which adds to the pressure on the Kings' rim protection.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell is projected for 13.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.9 threes. He runs the Heat offence and sets the tempo. His assist number is the one to track if Miami open up the game.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Heat. It gives Miami a 74% chance to win and projects a margin of 8.6 points, a model line of -8.6 with the Kings at +8.6. The projected score is 124.3 for the Heat and 115.7 for the Kings, which makes a model total of 240.0.

There is no market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model's line or total finds value, and we cannot give a total lean. Watch the NBA odds page for the opening numbers. Compare them with the model line of -8.6 and the model total of 240.0 once they appear.

The case for Miami is simple. The Heat are healthy, the Kings are 1-8 and badly short-handed, and Sacramento has conceded 123.3 points per game. The risk is Miami's own form: 3-6, with a 100-120 loss at Golden State on Thursday. A 26% chance for the Kings is not nothing, and any change in Hunter's status would shift the picture.

Statz pick: Miami Heat to win, model line -8.6, 74% win probability, model total 240.0.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest numbers and injury news before you act.

MIA @ SAC questions

Who does the model favour in Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings?
The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 74% to win, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 26%. The projected margin is 8.6 points, which gives a model line of Heat -8.6 and Kings +8.6 for the game on Sunday 8 November.
What is the projected total for Heat vs Kings?
The model projects 240.0 total points, with the Miami Heat at 124.3 and the Sacramento Kings at 115.7. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare against and no total lean to give.
What time is Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings?
The game tips off at 9:00 PM ET on Sunday 8 November 2026 in Sacramento. The Kings are the home team and the Heat are the visitors. Check injury news before tip, as lineups and lines can change.
Who is injured for the Sacramento Kings?
Ben Simmons is out for the season with a torn right Achilles tendon. Maxime Raynaud and Keegan Murray are also out. De'Andre Hunter missed Friday with an illness, and his status for this game needs checking before tip.
Does the Miami Heat have any injuries?
No. The Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report for this game, so the model's projections for their players assume a full rotation. That is a clear edge over a Kings team missing several players.
How have the Heat and Kings played this season?
The Miami Heat are 3-6 over 9 games, averaging 116.0 points for and 122.6 against. The Sacramento Kings are 1-8 over 9 games, averaging 109.2 points for and 123.3 against. Both teams have struggled, but the Kings have struggled more.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Miami Heat or Sacramento Kings?

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat with a 74% win probability, leaving the Sacramento Kings at 26%. Over their last five games the Sacramento Kings are 1-4 and the Miami Heat are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings?

No spread or total is posted yet for Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings?

For Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, the model projects Darius Acuff Jr. for 24.0 points and Zach LaVine for 20.2 points for the Sacramento Kings. For the Miami Heat it projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 26.8 points and Bam Adebayo for 19.1 points.